They had that with the US, and (as the quotes provided show) Palmerston believes Southern politicians and Southern captains wrecked it. If they wouldn't live up to the agreement in peacetime, why would they do so in wartime when their navy has other things to do?
If, in Palmerston's view, the South prevented the North from fulfilling a ratified treaty engagement because they didn't agree with it, why would they adhere to anything less formal? Why would the Confederate Supreme Court, or the Congress, or Davis's successor, not throw out an unconstitutional arrangement which enables the president to bypass oversight?
Not really. Either Palmerston treats the South as an independent country and seeks an accord with them, or he treats them as legally part of the United States and claims the right of search as a result of the US signing a treaty before the South's independence was established. He can't hold both positions at the same time.
Again, not really. Even a ratified treaty can be abrogated as soon as it suits the South- for instance, as soon as they've won their freedom. They don't even have to do so overtly on the grounds they want to import slaves: they can claim it was intended to be a temporary measure, but now they've got their own navy they're entitled to enforce their own laws. And once one nation has thrown off British maritime supremacy, other countries like Brazil, Portugal, Spain or France might be tempted to follow their example- and the whole system of slave trade prevention which Palmerston has spent his career building up could come crashing to the ground.
I think you make a number of good counterpoints. However, If Lord Palmerston is trying to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses (which all statesmen do), then he's going to have a plan A, B, and C.
The fact is, he wants an independent South. If he didn't, he doesn't go to war; there's just no way to rationalize it otherwise. He's a smart man. He knows that the best way to put his whole anti-slave trade system in jeopardy is to help out a nation whose reason for being is slavery. So there are other values here which are more important to him.
In one respect, the situation is a similar one to WW2. You can't rationalize going to war against the Nazis post-1942 if your number one value is destroying communism. President Lindbergh, for example, is never going to fight alongside the Russians. Same would go for communism--you cant fight alongside the Nazis and somehow pretend to be pro-Communist. President John L Lewis is not going to help the Nazis kill the Soviets.
Pam must think that a united US--which, even before the Emancipation Proclamation, stands a better than even chance of abolishing slavery--is the worse outcome than an independent slaveholding CS. So even if he disagrees with their politics, he doesn't disagree enough to make sure that they don't get to practice those politics far into the future.
Even if he/the UK gov't were to say (which they wouldn't, because it's crazy) that you can fight the free states without helping the slave states, then they don't fight the *way* they do in the timeline. There are limited wars, wars that get declared and not fought, and times when the whole thing just fizzles out. Just look at the Aroostook War. So if they really wanted to go to war for war's sake, then they burn a town in Maine or something and then let it be known that they would really rather see slavery get abolished than kill each other because of a couple of candy-ass diplomats from a pariah state.
Instead, these guys are going all out.
And if you don't want to aid slavery, then you definitely don't break the blockade of the slave states.
And the whole line of thinking that they are somehow worried about recognizing the CS and how that might look, how it might damage relations with the US, it just doesn't hold water. If the CS wins, then it doesn't matter. If the CS loses, it doesn't matter, because the UK has just killed a bunch of Americans.
I mean, I generally hate it when people are friendly with the neighbors I feud with. Even when they wave to them--but you know that I hate even more? When you wave to my neighbors and then burn my house down and kill my family. Even when you pay no attention to my neighbors, and burn my house down and kill my family, I still hate that more than someone waving to my hated neighbors.
It is not believable to say that the US would win a war with the UK in the midst of the ACW. But I have trouble with the idea that the UK could engage in such a war, then pretend that they aren't basically guaranteeing the continued existence of slavery in North America. And even beyond that, to be so committed to that fiction that they wouldn't at least try to get assurances from the pariah state whose existence they are midwifing into being.
I sort of think of it like Churchill's percentages agreement with Stalin. Does he trust Stalin? No. Does he like him? No. Does he like the system he represents? Hell no. Does he think that fighting alongside him has done anything but strengthen Stalin and the system he represents? Not a chance. Does he even think that Stalin will abide by an agreement in the end? I'm going to venture to say that he had his doubts. But that doesn't stop him from broaching the subject, and at least trying to get a concession from him. If nothing else, it gives Churchill a window into Stalin's state of mind, how Stalin perceives himself and his own strengths, and what Stalin's short to medium term goals are.
It's not about trust on the part of Pam, necessarily. But if he hates slavery as much as you say, and he nonetheless agrees to ensure its existence for the foreseeable future, than I would guess that he would want to get as much leverage as he can over the people he detests.