"If They Want It They Can Have It": Ulster's Tragedy.

[tukaram bhakt]

@nezza i love the style of your writing, succint yet packing a lot of information
Journalistic instead of academic.

 

[CalBear]

I think you're labouring under the misapprehension that Operation Lifeline, as described, has been something of a success.

With the situation you described:


the best description for it would be a complete and utter fuck-up.

It would be discovered that elements of the Irish Army were engaged in planting mines in Northern Ireland. Given that, as yet, Britain hasn't accepted NI's declaration of UDI it is, under international law, British territory. That means that Irish soldiers will have been found to be engaging in an Act of War. This is not a Good Thing. Everyone would go ape-shit over the concept. It would be portrayed - not unreasonably - as an invasion.

It would be discovered that elements of the Irish Army were engaged in sabotage and terrorism while in civilian clothes. Under the Geneva Convention, that is a Big No-No. Some of them will be caught. Some of them will be caught by Loyalist forces. These will have an unfortunate fate.

They are laying mines. These mines can only have come from Government supplies. That directly implicates the Irish Government in these actions, which would be portrayed as acts of terrorism. Laying mines on roads can be described as nothing else.

They are laying mines on roads. Civilians use those roads. There will be civilian casualties. If you think the response to Bloody Sunday was bad (and deservedly so), this would make that look like a minor blip. Bloody Sunday was an action taken during a civil disturbance, a riot. One can, if so inclined, point to extenuating circumstances (not that it was OK, but that one can make a case that it was understandable and heat of the moment stuff). Here, you have a cold and calculated action for which no such mitigating circumstances exist.

Since the plan is to set up no-go areas, then one is setting up areas excluded from fire and ambulance services. Since the bulk of the fire service was Protestant, that's going to have implications. Remember, this was a period when one IRA tactic was to board up exits from the houses of firemen, block the approaches to the house, and firebomb the house while the fireman was working. The idea was to hit the firemen where it hurt - through their families - and terrorise them into giving up their job. Operation Lifeline is giving a freehand to the IRA to expand such tactics.

Guerrilla tactics by troops not in uniform in a foreign country - that's not likely to lead to a good PR outcome.

Oh, and the IRA are not going to take kindly to the incursion of the Irish Army. You can expect casualties in the Irish Army from the IRA.

Let's talk numbers available to Operation Lifeline. At this period, the Irish Army could scrape up around 2500 troops for border activity. Of those troops, 95% won't be suitable for such work. Operating undercover is very specialised work, and there has been damn all training for operating undercover in an urban environment. Every so often, the British Army tried it, picking a few people who got rapid training. It never went well. I see no reason why this would go any better. Anyway, you've got a pool of 125 troops with the skills to do this (and that's being astonishingly generous). Of those, around half are going to want nothing to do with this. Even the densest private can see that undertaking such activities while in civilian clothes is a Bad Idea. It will get them shot (and that's if they're lucky). That leaves us with around 60 soldiers willing and trained for such work. Of those, around one third will not be available (injury, engaged in more vital work, too close to demob, etc). That gives us 40 soldiers ready, willing, and able to do the job. Since there will be multiple locations, and assuming that even Irish troops can only be in one place at a time, that's giving us 10 soldiers to turn Derry into a no-go zone, 20 for Belfast, and 10 for Armagh.

Good luck with that.

Operation Lifeline, as described, will be a mess, it will have inflamed the situation, it will be known to be the work of the Irish Government, and it will have demonstrably killed civilians trying not to be involved. It is a recipe for a bigger disaster than the Charge of the Light Brigade.

Lynch's political career, at this point, is dead in the water.

Being that this is in the early 70s I would expect that regular personnel, regardless of nationality, would have a tendency to stand out from the general public rather dramatically. Just grooming standards alone will be a significant tell, as will an unusually high level of fitness.

As you note, a soldier has a very difficult time pretending to be a civilian, especially if they don't know an area like a local.

Also, given that the Insurrectionist leadership is already committing Crimes Against Humanity on elements of its own population, it is likely that any captured Republic personnel will get "Hanoi Hilton" style treatment and in a few days be seen on Television confessing to their "crimes" followed by a better than 50:50 chance of live broadcast execution.

 

[sparky42]

Being that this is in the early 70s I would expect that regular personnel, regardless of nationality, would have a tendency to stand out from the general public rather dramatically. Just grooming standards alone will be a significant tell, as will an unusually high level of fitness.

As you note, a soldier has a very difficult time pretending to be a civilian, especially if they don't know an area like a local.

Also, given that the Insurrectionist leadership is already committing Crimes Against Humanity on elements of its own population, it is likely that any captured Republic personnel will get "Hanoi Hilton" style treatment and in a few days be seen on Television confessing to their "crimes" followed by a better than 50:50 chance of live broadcast execution.

Given comments from my godfather in the FCA (reserves), don’t make that assumption about the DF, the best would be deployed on UN missions, the rest would have varying levels of training/fitness.

 

[CalBear]

Given comments from my godfather in the FCA (reserves), don’t make that assumption about the DF, the best would be deployed on UN missions, the rest would have varying levels of training/fitness.

This gets better and better.

You have a revolt be a pack of loons who are, at best, conducting Stalin-era purges and at worst headed into Rwanda-esque territory with the Marx Brothers playing the part of the Irish Army.

This seems to be escalating from Charlie Foxtrot to straight up FUBAR in a few easy to follow steps.

 

[sparky42]

This gets better and better.

You have a revolt be a pack of loons who are, at best, conducting Stalin-era purges and at worst headed into Rwanda-esque territory with the Marx Brothers playing the part of the Irish Army.

This seems to be escalating from Charlie Foxtrot to straight up FUBAR in a few easy to follow steps.

As I said it very much depends, the forces deployed to the Congo from 1960-64 demonstrated plenty of capabilities with what they had, but the DOD learned very little from the actions and instead pretty much ignored/penalised the troops (the alternative would be owning the mistakes and require investment that DOD never allows), so if there were incursions I could see them doing what they could, but you‘re still talking about a force with extremely limited equipment/vehicles/support, no armour, 24 25 pounders and that’s about it.

 

[David Flin]

Being that this is in the early 70s I would expect that regular personnel, regardless of nationality, would have a tendency to stand out from the general public rather dramatically. Just grooming standards alone will be a significant tell, as will an unusually high level of fitness.

As you note, a soldier has a very difficult time pretending to be a civilian, especially if they don't know an area like a local.

Also, given that the Insurrectionist leadership is already committing Crimes Against Humanity on elements of its own population, it is likely that any captured Republic personnel will get "Hanoi Hilton" style treatment and in a few days be seen on Television confessing to their "crimes" followed by a better than 50:50 chance of live broadcast execution.

These Lynch's Lions would face more than just problems from the Insurrectionists; they would also face problems from the Loyalists who would oppose UDI but would not take kindly to IDF soldiers acting as terrorists in the North; and they would also face problems from the existing Republicans within the various IRA groups who would not take kindly to IDF soldiers muscling in on their turf. Note that a couple of years after this, there was violence between different IRA groups over turf disputes.

These IDF soldiers don't know the areas they're operating in, and would, as you say, stand out like a sore thumb. Hell, even blind, a local would be able to tell an IDF soldier just from the different accent.

It's frankly a lottery over whether they are captured by British forces, Insurrectionists, Loyalists, or Republicans. In each case, the likely outcome would be: Incarcerated on the British mainland and a major embarrassment to the Irish Government (to put it mildly); strung up from a lamp-post; shot and dumped across the border; or shot and buried in an unmarked grave.

if there were incursions I could see them doing what they could, but you‘re still talking about a force with extremely limited equipment/vehicles/support, no armour, 24 25 pounders and that’s about it.

The trouble is, as defined, it's the IDF who are doing the incursions, making it even more - and I'm choosing my words with care here - ridiculous.

 

[sparky42]

The trouble is, as defined, it's the IDF who are doing the incursions, making it even more - and I'm choosing my words with care here - ridiculous.

To be clear I meant if you had Loyalists or Ulster forces crossing over into the Republic to attack say nationalist refugees or fleeing Republican groups, or even Irish Security forces. I’m in full agreement that DF units crossing into the North is “unwise and unlikely to end well for anyone”.

 

[CalBear]

These Lynch's Lions would face more than just problems from the Insurrectionists; they would also face problems from the Loyalists who would oppose UDI but would not take kindly to IDF soldiers acting as terrorists in the North; and they would also face problems from the existing Republicans within the various IRA groups who would not take kindly to IDF soldiers muscling in on their turf. Note that a couple of years after this, there was violence between different IRA groups over turf disputes.

These IDF soldiers don't know the areas they're operating in, and would, as you say, stand out like a sore thumb. Hell, even blind, a local would be able to tell an IDF soldier just from the different accent.

It's frankly a lottery over whether they are captured by British forces, Insurrectionists, Loyalists, or Republicans. In each case, the likely outcome would be: Incarcerated on the British mainland and a major embarrassment to the Irish Government (to put it mildly); strung up from a lamp-post; shot and dumped across the border; or shot and buried in an unmarked grave.


The trouble is, as defined, it's the IDF who are doing the incursions, making it even more - and I'm choosing my words with care here - ridiculous.

As I understand things both the "Real" IRA and Provos were politically somewhere between "Communist" and full out "Marxist" and envisioned their "Free Ireland" falling between Castro's Cuba and 1920 USSR on the economic/personal freedom scale (something that the overwhelming number of rather conservative American Irish-Catholics who provided both groups with materials and political support were blithely ignorant about).

 

[sparky42]

As I understand things both the "Real" IRA and Provos were politically somewhere between "Communist" and full out "Marxist" and envisioned their "Free Ireland" falling between Castro's Cuba and 1920 USSR on the economic/personal freedom scale (something that the overwhelming number of rather conservative American Irish-Catholics who provided both groups with materials and political support were blithely ignorant about).

You’re missing out the part where they all held the view that the Republic and it’s forces were illegitimate, so yeah don’t expect them to play nice with the DF (or the DF with them)

 

[CalBear]

You’re missing out the part where they all held the view that the Republic and it’s forces were illegitimate, so yeah don’t expect them to play nice with the DF (or the DF with them)

I am growing increasingly convinced that Northern Ireland circa 1972 was actual Lebanon circa 1985, but with shitty weather.

 

[Geon]

I have to wonder what the IRA and other such organizations are going to think of the UK. Will they consider the UK complicit in what is occurring now? The UK has thus far had a "hands off" approach. If they think the UK is at all responsible for this blood won't only flow on the streets of Ulster. It will flow in London as well!

 

[sparky42]

I am growing increasingly convinced that Northern Ireland circa 1972 was actual Lebanon circa 1985, but with shitty weather.

Pretty much in this case I would say so.

 

[sparky42]

I have to wonder what the IRA and other such organizations are going to think of the UK. Will they consider the UK complicit in what is occurring now? The UK has thus far had a "hands off" approach. If they think the UK is at all responsible for this blood won't only flow on the streets of Ulster. It will flow in London as well!

In a UDI situation they are going to be hard pressed fending off loyalist and NI “state“ forces, bombing GB is going to be down the list I would think.

 

[David Flin]

I am growing increasingly convinced that Northern Ireland circa 1972 was actual Lebanon circa 1985, but with shitty weather.

I don't know about Lebanon 1985, but I do know about Beirut 1976.

Beirut 1976 was an order of magnitude, possibly 2 orders of magnitude, worse than Northern Ireland 1972. I was in both.

 

[Mike D]

As I understand things both the "Real" IRA and Provos were politically somewhere between "Communist" and full out "Marxist" and envisioned their "Free Ireland" falling between Castro's Cuba and 1920 USSR on the economic/personal freedom scale (something that the overwhelming number of rather conservative American Irish-Catholics who provided both groups with materials and political support were blithely ignorant about).

The Official IRA was Marxist-Leninist, INLA (Irish Nationalist Liberation Army) was Marxist, the Provisional IRA came out of OIRA and was nominally Socialist but I doubt the members making millions out of smuggling in South Armagh or drug dealing in Derry or Belfast agreed. Real IRA, Continuity IRA and New IRA all came out of PIRA following the ceasefire (New IRA is newer than the other two and emerged in the last few years) and is made up of the ones who just really liked blowing people up. Republican Action Against Drugs was, officially, aimed against drug dealers as a menace against the people of the estates where they were based but they were only really doing it to make sure they had the monopoly on drug dealing in Catholic areas.

 

[BELFAST]

I'm surprised we haven't heard yet from the very vocal "Rev." Ian Paisley, the rabidly anti-Catholic "minister" who - speaking as an evangelical Christian - was a disgrace to his profession!

Paisley had a lot of connections to the US evangelical Christians.

In the 1960s, Paisley developed a relationship with the fundamentalist Bob Jones University located in Greenville, South Carolina. In 1966, he received an honorary doctorate of divinity from the institution and subsequently served on its board of trustees. This relationship would later lead to the establishment of the Free Presbyterian Church of North America in 1977.[20] His honorary doctorate, along with his political obstinacy, led to Paisley's nickname of "Dr. No" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Paisley#Religious_career

 

[BELFAST]

I don't know about Lebanon 1985, but I do know about Beirut 1976.

Beirut 1976 was an order of magnitude, possibly 2 orders of magnitude, worse than Northern Ireland 1972. I was in both.

Both had Bob Fisk cover them.
Nothing good is happening in your country if Bob Fisk shows up to cover the story.

 

[sparky42]

I don't know about Lebanon 1985, but I do know about Beirut 1976.

Beirut 1976 was an order of magnitude, possibly 2 orders of magnitude, worse than Northern Ireland 1972. I was in both.

Without question, though in a UDI situation I'd argue that it's going to be a lot closer than in OTL?

 

[BELFAST]

The Official IRA was Marxist-Leninist, INLA (Irish Nationalist Liberation Army) was Marxist, the Provisional IRA came out of OIRA and was nominally Socialist but I doubt the members making millions out of smuggling in South Armagh or drug dealing in Derry or Belfast agreed. Real IRA, Continuity IRA and New IRA all came out of PIRA following the ceasefire (New IRA is newer than the other two and emerged in the last few years) and is made up of the ones who just really liked blowing people up. Republican Action Against Drugs was, officially, aimed against drug dealers as a menace against the people of the estates where they were based but they were only really doing it to make sure they had the monopoly on drug dealing in Catholic areas.

True.
As the police, for the most part, did not go into those areas the IRA had to be seen taking action against drug dealers and car theft and anti-social behaviour or lose support it had in those areas.
Same for loyalist paramilitaries in loyalist areas.
Before the split IRA refusal to defend nationist areas because it was not part of the class struggle lead to people saying. IRA "I Ran Away".
This was in part what lead to the split and the start of the Provos.

 

[FriendlyGhost]

I'm not sure really how bad the situation in NI actually is right now ITTL. Yes there are paramilitaries on the streets:

Belfast city centre is occupied by masked gangs who are acting as a paramilitary force with checkpoints and armed patrols. The offices of the BBC and Ulster Television have been taken over and both stations have been closed down.

and there must be some truth behind Lynch's statement:

People, men, women and children who are loyal to the republic have been forced to flee from the barbarism and cruelty of those who seek to create their own totalitarian state.

but I haven't seen anything in the TL posts about mass killings actually happening or anything which implies the province is falling into civil war.

However, the UDI leader has obviously got it in for anyone who's against his plan:

In his mind the plan was simple. Eradicate those who would not conform

which reads very much like 'if you're not with us you're against us' with all the potential for that to be mis-interpreted by hard-liners. So maybe it is worse than has been specifically stated so far - I just don't think it's into UN/NATO-involvement-territory yet. Particularly given the upcoming successful Op Motorman (see below).


Regarding the ability of UK forces to regain control: right now, it doesn't seem that Op Motorman has actually started, but Tuzo's obituary implies that it will actually work out quite well (though 'quite well' is an arbitrary term).

"Operation Motorman saw 30,000 troops fan out across the province and effectively drove the loyalists off the street and provided much needed assistance to the embattled republicans even flying some to hospitals in the UK.

That, I think, answers these questions, at least partly:

Do the British military in Northern Ireland have numbers to take on the mob, police etc and protect the nationalist population?

I think the British army would try to establish defensive premiers around safe havens for nationalists.

Related:

Right now London is sitting on its hands because they cant do anything else. The UDI came about because the "loyalists" feel that London has abandoned them. The troops are confined to barracks simply because they're shit scared of being killed.

I read the last sentence as 'The troops are confined to barracks simply because the politicians are they're shit scared of too many people (troops or civilians) being killed and them [the politicians] being blamed for it.'

And finally:

We apologise to Sir Harry's family for any inconvenience caused

I think you mean Sir Ted's family?


Apologies for the long post.