The most Lynch would do is blankets and tents etc.
Standard Irish policy on these matters is to refer the matter to the UN.
Standard Irish policy on these matters is to refer the matter to the UN.
Yes but the question is how many lives will be lost.Thinking about what the British army could do as a civilian who has never served in any army.
I think the British army would try to establish defensive premiers around safe havens for nationalists.
Economic pressure/reality after that could lead to the collapse of UDI.
Minnows doesn't even really give an idea of the gulf between the forces, it's at best highly doubtful that the DF would have forces trained enough and equipped enough for what you are suggesting, or put it another way if British Army forces in NI have lost control, there's no amount of forces that the DF could field that would make the difference. And yeah as @David Flin is suggesting "inflaming" the situation is putting it mildly. If the Unionists have gone UDI can you imagine the fallout to finding DF units operational and lets face it, this is Ireland it would leak like a sieve within hours at most that forces were deployed. In a UDI situation, I would have imagined that the DF would be fully committed to the border and fearing incursions.You are quite right in saying that. If that had happened in real life and if it had been discovered then the ROI would have been in deep trouble across the world. As has already been established both here and on the video I linked to earlier the Irish Army at the time were minnows compared to their British counterparts. Again it links back to my earlier comments on Lynch's decency.
A lot of people will die.Yes but the question is how many lives will be lost.
1) before safe areas can be establish and
2) how many Nationalists are left outside them.
Can the UK (Great Britain now) cope with the international fall out?
Okay.As @BELFAST has shown, the British army troops actually in Northern Ireland are probably outnumbered by the armed police force, the TA units recruited from the Six Counties and the reservists who could return to the colours of the TA. Let alone the paramilitaries and ex-B Specials.
So what could the British forces under General Tuzo achieve? Stop "Loyalist" gangs invading Catholic communities in Belfast (and other strongly Unionist cities) to round up the inhabitants for deportation or worse? Maybe, depending on their ROE and willingness to engage the Police and any TA forces that obey Stormont. I don't see them being able to arrest the rebel government or stop strikers bringing the statelet to a halt - power, transport etc. However, in the rural areas with largely Catholic population it may be able to wrest control from "Loyalist" forces. Would it have to cooperate with the Irish Defence Force and local IRA then? Derry/Londonderry?
Then again, what does Faulknor want to achieve with independence? Ethnic cleansing to reduce the Catholic/Nationalist population seems one answer - but what does he expect to happen after several hundred thousand people have been forced out of their homes and across the border? The territory doesn't have a central bank or currency, any IOUs it issues will not even be "worth a continental damn" but at least could serve as toilet paper. (Which may be in short supply unless there's a functioning paper mill.) The place would fall apart within days or weeks at most once the money taps are turned off and shipments of key goods stopped for lack of payment - even leading aside sanctions! But that still leaves a lot of time for atrocities and major loss of life.
Tuzo will have to be reinforced quickly and strike hard to restore order and take control of Belfast and key installations. Curfews, shooting of rioters and looters and some way of getting recalcitrant "loyalist" workers back to key servicers. IF he can't do that, how ;long before Heath has to call for help from the UN and US in particular?
More likely NATO assistance or perhaps just Canadian/American.A lot of people will die.
Defensive positions might be better than going on the offensive against the UDI.
I think it will only be a question of time before UN peacekeeping troops are sent in.
In the meantime, they need to hold the line.
This is going to look a lot like the war in Bosnia.
Yes in most cases. In Northern Ireland the British forces did have light armour (APCs and Armoured cars) but not as far as I can recall MBTs. David Flin might know better of course. But they are not facing just armed police and mobs.Okay.
There is armed and then there is ARMED. police are armed. Revolvers, maybe automatic pistols, shotguns. All you need to deal with any criminal situation. Armies are ARMED. Select fire weapons, crew served/belt fed weapons, grenades, mortars, etc. No real comparison. American police figured this out in the 1970s and created "Emergency Services" and SWAT with true paramilitary training and weapons to match, nevertheless an Army brigade would take 4x its own number of paramilitary police or local bully boys and only stop firing long enough to clear enough of the bodies from the pile so they could keep shooting. That would be before the first tank arrived.
Once the first tank arrives with combat ROE everyone without armored support is advised to leave, very quickly.
It is very much like the old saw about a dog and a wolf in a fight - "the dog fights, the wolf eats".
Yes in most cases. In Northern Ireland the British forces did have light armour (APCs and Armoured cars) but not as far as I can recall MBTs. David Flin might know better of course. But they are not facing just armed police and mobs.
"Good Evening, I speak to you tonight following one of the most tumultuous weeks in our history. The scenes that we have witnessed have been horrific and a blight on all of us. As you will have seen on the news ordinary Irish men and women have taken it upon themselves to aid and care for thousands of scared people from the North and for that I say on behalf of the Irish nation Thank You so much.
"Lynch's plan was know as Operation Lifeline and entailed sending small clandestine squads into the North who would effectively set up no-go zones by rigging mines on roads leading into major catholic nationalist areas while transferring those needing medical attention to major hospitals in the South . These squads were dressed in civilian clothing and were recruited for their specialities. By day they acted as ordinary people while by night they engaged in guerilla tactics.
Thanks for the information. I'd forgotten-t about the AVREs.No MBTs, although a few AVRE were deployed for Op Motorman in the early 1970s to clear the no-go areas in Derry.
There would be a squadron left of the Royal Irish Horse with Land Rovers and Spartan APCs (the rest of the regiment had been disbanded in the 1960s with one squadron transferring to the Royal Signals). There is also an artillery battery based in Newtownards and Coleraine but I'm not sure if they were air defence or 105mm Light Gun at that time. If the British deployed tanks to the province (something I'm not sure would happen, even in these circumstances) then neither are going to worry a Chieftain.
Thanks for the information. I'd forgotten-t about the AVREs.
Did the TAVR infantry battalions in Northern Ireland have a full heavy weapons company? With mortars and anti-tank weapons. The latter presumably being Wombats or Mobats rather than ATGM. Would they also gave Carl Gustavs for close quarters?
The fundamental immediate problem for the regular units in Northern Ireland is that they on a peacekeeping establishment. Not "loaded for bear" as in BAOR or even UK bases. So expecting them to brush aside any organised opposition quickly might be optimistic.
My brief look into British Army infiltration by Loyalist (or whatever they would be ITTL) terrorists and/or British Army collusion seems to point mainly at the Ulster Defence Regiment (duh) and have happened in the '80s. But I think a concern in this scenario, as worries by British Army planners and in events unfolding on the ground:
What about Loyalist agents who rather than defecting, stay in their British Army units and somehow provide intelligence to the Unionists, or worse?
Declassified documents from the period:
Declassified official documents shed an interesting light on British government attitudes towards loyalist infiltration of the security forces and loyalist violence in the 1970s. The British Government has sought to portray its role here as that of the neutral broker, the peacekeeper caught...www.patfinucanecentre.org
The RUC did not use shotguns. But they had rifles and .357 revolvers, Machine guns, submachine guns and were armed to deal with IRA rebels.Okay.
There is armed and then there is ARMED. police are armed. Revolvers, maybe automatic pistols, shotguns. All you need to deal with any criminal situation.
Good questionHonest question, I’m not even sure the Irish Army even had mines in stores at the time? I know that doesn’t stop IED type usage but actual mines?
What you are describing here isn't an insurrection or even political coup. If the TA (Territorial Army?) and perhaps even Regular Army units with mainly Northern Irish cadre are with the leaders of the insurrection, that describes a straight up Civil War. That makes a robust response out of London all the more critical (robust = RAF strikes on hostile bases and camps, with a fairly rapid, as in under a week, movement of heavy units from bases in England and Scotland via amphibious transport, the works).Yes in most cases. In Northern Ireland the British forces did have light armour (APCs and Armoured cars) but not as far as I can recall MBTs. David Flin might know better of course. But they are not facing just armed police and mobs.
Depending on what preparations have been made the "Loyalists" can mobilise the TA units, which also have mortars and other heavy weapons. Probably an artillery regiment and ditto an Armoured car one. Plus reservists that would bulk them out.
The combat efficiency of the "Loyalists" will be lower than the Regulars. But not as much below as you might think. And "Quantity has a Quality all of its own".
Think of Little Rock IF the state National Guard along with state police was willing to confront the Airborne Troops. ( ASB improbability of course.) Or maybe Bosnia with NATO forces trying to suppress not just militias but also Serbian army units. Without artillery and airport.
To suppress the UDI quickly Westminster would need to give a great deal of latitude in the ROE to the GIC Northern Ireland. Plus reinforcements with tanks and artillery and air support. I'm not sure that the Tory party as a whole could do that* and while Labour would support intervention it probably would want a UN force brought in quickly
The author seems to be writing that the British army will be able to at least suppress the worst of the violence against Catholics. Whether it regains sufficient control to restore British rule and a normal economy is another matter, we will have to wait and see.
We know that UDI would be an economic and financial disaster within weeks at most. (Unless Britain would somehow decide maintain the financial support and run its banks. Perhaps Faulknor really just want Direct Rule rescinded?) But a lot of deaths could occur before the "Loyalists" would peacefully submit to Direct Rule or agree to power sharing with Nationalists.
It is plausible that the UK needs to send not just the Spearhead battalion and supports Plus follow on units meant for out if area operations. ( Some will already be on tours to Northern Ireland. ) Also the Expeditionary Force planned to go to Denmark under NATO plans and withdraw heavy units from BAOR. Which will all take time.
Might be quicker to beg for the US to send Marine and Airborne units. With a CVBG fir air support. One advantage being that both communities might be more trusting of them.
In the situationoutlined, how long would Nixon take to offer this support? And how soon coukf boots be on the ground?
* It's always had elements tempted to support the Unionists unconditionally for partisan purposes. The many backbenchers who supported White Rhodesia would also support "firm action" against Nationalists and Stormont being aided not suppressed.
Britain in the early 1970s was a very strange place beneath the surface.