If there was no Second Balkan War, how would WW1 turn out?

BigBlueBox

Banned
As the title says, if Bulgaria showed more restraint and did not initiate the Second Balkan War, and the Great War starts similarly to OTL with Austria-Hungary declaring war on Serbia due the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, how does the war turn out? Will Bulgaria still join the Central Powers to acquire Serbian Macedonia? If so, does the Ottoman Empire join the Entente to reclaim Edirne? What would Greece do in this situation? Does it remain neutral? If the Ottomans join the Entente will Greece join the Central Powers in reaction? Does Greece join the Entente anyways to gain land from Bulgaria? Or could Greece collapse into a civil war with the King's supporters joining the Central Powers and Venizelos's supporters joining the Entente? Does any of this change Albania's policy towards the war? Will the differing Balkan alliances influence Italy and Romania's decisions to enter the war?
 
As the title says, if Bulgaria showed more restraint and did not initiate the Second Balkan War, and the Great War starts similarly to OTL with Austria-Hungary declaring war on Serbia due the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, how does the war turn out? Will Bulgaria still join the Central Powers to acquire Serbian Macedonia? If so, does the Ottoman Empire join the Entente to reclaim Edirne? What would Greece do in this situation? Does it remain neutral? If the Ottomans join the Entente will Greece join the Central Powers in reaction? Does Greece join the Entente anyways to gain land from Bulgaria? Or could Greece collapse into a civil war with the King's supporters joining the Central Powers and Venizelos's supporters joining the Entente? Does any of this change Albania's policy towards the war? Will the differing Balkan alliances influence Italy and Romania's decisions to enter the war?
Bulgaria would probably still join the Central Powers, primarily because they felt that they deserved more of Macedonia. The Entente pretty much shunned the Ottomans, so I don't see the latter joining. In fact, it might convince them to remain neutral. Greece would probably join the Entente because they would be threatened by Bulgaria. They most likely wouldn't be engulfed in a civil war because both sides would be afraid of a powerful Bulgaria. Albania would probably still be occupied by the Austrians. Italy would probably still join the Entente and Romania would most certainly join, primarily because they were after Bulgaria's half of Dobruja. I suppose that the Central Powers would have a bit of a better chance of winning, but not by much.
 
If the Ottomans join the Entente and allow Russia to trade through the straits than the Entente should have the war rapped up by 1916 assuming other variables like US loans keep arriving. Russia at Versailles would create a very diffrent postwar situation.
Will Bulgaria still join the Central Powers to acquire Serbian Macedonia?
It is a 50/50 question really. If the Ottomans join the Entente than they know they can't throw their whole military at Serbia. Enough central power victories during the war might convince them that war may be possible and take the gamble. If so they do join would get clobbered and the Ottomans will get Edirne and some of Thrace back. Its value is much more important to them than Kars given that it was their old capital and all and many noteworthy Turks are buried there.
What would Greece do in this situation? Does it remain neutral? If the Ottomans join the Entente will Greece join the Central Powers in reaction? Does Greece join the Entente anyways to gain land from Bulgaria? Or could Greece collapse into a civil war with the King's supporters joining the Central Powers and Venizelos's supporters joining the Entente
Depends on what Bulgeria does. The king of Greece was pro-German though he was smart enough to stay neutral. Bulgeria entering the war will make it very hard to stay neutral since there will be Greek claims on Bulgerian territory. There will probably be a coup-De-fet like in OTL if the king sides too much with the central powers.
Albania's policy towards the war?
Albania's role in WW1 was very complicated. Probably wouldn't be to different from OTL since the trigger is still the Austrian invasion of Serbia.
Will the differing Balkan alliances influence Italy and Romania's decisions to enter the war?
The balkian situation would probably have very little effect on Italy's strategy. They will do the same thing as in OTL. Same goes for Romania whither Bulgeria joins or not.
 

gurgu

Banned
If Bulgaria doesn't start the second balkan war there are two possible outcomes:
  1. the balkan league is somehow kept alive and maybe even forma monetary union. With this scenario if ww1 start austria would face 3/4 of the balkans while romania might join CP
  2. simple neutrality after balkan war 1. Weaker serbia, greece and stronger bulgaria. If serbia resists Bulgaria might join entente after promise of full control of macedonia and quick attack on OE in hope of taking Costantinople. if this happens Bulgaria becames basically the strongest nation in the balkans and might have a third golden era.
In both cases Bulgaria will gain territories and won't join axis in ww2 but instead allies: benny attacks greece and hitler invades attacks both serbia/bulgaria, who might be able to resist enough until UK saves their army in a second dunkirk( salonika?) or lands in forces with aid
 
No second balken war might gust stop ww1 as there would be a much longer time to cool of tensions then there was in OTL, or maby gust delay it.
 
Hmm. ISTM that a big knock-on area is the Turkish Straits. After the First Balkan War, Turkey-in-Europe was reduced to two enclaves: Istanbul and its surburbs, and the Gallipoli peninsula. If as OTL Bulgaria remains neutral at the start of the war, while Turkey joins the CP, ISTM that a Dardanelles operation has a much better chance of success. Or maybe not? I don't know that any reinforcements or supplies reached the peninsula overland and through its very narrow neck.

Another important knock-on is what happened inside Turkey as a result of the Second Balkan War. Turkey had been grossly humiliated in the FBW; in the SBW Turkey recovered significant territory, which I would guess got them back off the floor. They no longer had unfriendly troops almost in artillery range of the capital. This campaign greatly boosted Enver Pasha.
 

gurgu

Banned
Hmm. ISTM that a big knock-on area is the Turkish Straits. After the First Balkan War, Turkey-in-Europe was reduced to two enclaves: Istanbul and its surburbs, and the Gallipoli peninsula. If as OTL Bulgaria remains neutral at the start of the war, while Turkey joins the CP, ISTM that a Dardanelles operation has a much better chance of success. Or maybe not? I don't know that any reinforcements or supplies reached the peninsula overland and through its very narrow neck.

Another important knock-on is what happened inside Turkey as a result of the Second Balkan War. Turkey had been grossly humiliated in the FBW; in the SBW Turkey recovered significant territory, which I would guess got them back off the floor. They no longer had unfriendly troops almost in artillery range of the capital. This campaign greatly boosted Enver Pasha.
If OE joins the CP, Bulgaria will jump in the entente ASAP to try take Constantinople( wet dream) so... gallipoli?
let's say Churchill still tries to take the peninsula but the young Ataturk still is able to resit: Bulgaria joins the entente on the condition to take Constantinople( demilitarized or half granted to Russia so their are happy as well) and rushes into the capital entrenching a good portion of Turkish army in the peninsula and entering the capital in no time. The OE is basically defeated and Russia might be able to resist with english supplies from black sea.
If Bulgaria join entente, Serbia will resist and Austria will hope for Romanian intervention because the whole Bulgarian army( 1 mln and 200k at full mobilization) is coming to save the Slav brother from the evil German.

Even if Romania joins the 2 Balkan brothers would be able to resist thanks to english supplies and by 1917/1918 try even an offensive( Bulgaria would be a monster in te Balkans if fully supplied with general vazov), Austria would collapse sooner and Romania alone would surrender.

Peace conference same as OTL but in the Balkans:
- Romania looses all the dobruja area, even northern to Bulgaria
- Serbia gains Croatia/Bosnia/Montenegro/Slovenia as OTL but gives macedonia to Bulgaria as thank to help
-OE explodes but Constantinople goes to Bulgaria( full control if USSR happens)
-Romania and Hungary would pay all the debts to Yugoslavia and Bulgaria.

interwar:
Yugoslavia faces one less nation problem( Macedonians don't exist, they are full bulgarized) and maybe has a bit better economy, and haves good relations with Bulgaria for the first time in centuries( one saved the other and the other, same religion and culture).
Bulgaria is living a golden Age as Third Bulgarian Empire and might experience a population boom, in 1922 the Bulgarian/Greek war starts( instead of Greek/Turkish) and Bulgaria smashes the greeks( Balkan Prussia with 4 times size army) and gains Salonika and seizes the Greek navy, basically controlling all the claimed lands since the second Bulgarian Empire.

The great depression strikes as OTL but Bulgaria is able to recover faster than OTL and doesn't go pro-nazi but stays pro-France/England making friendship treaties with Yugoslavia and maybe recognize the USSR to avoid as old friendship( Russia freed Bulgaria).
Greece goes full revanchist toward Bulgaria and might join axis, if Benny doesn't try a coup or invasion.

ww2:
starts as OTL, Hungary and Romania join sooner the axis and let's add Greece.
Bulgarians and Yugoslav use the Danube as barrier on the north and alps on east while smashing Greece( even if Italians help the troops of both nations would be poorly equipped, and Bulgaria has a stronger navy while Greece lost it all), if England seizes control of east Mediterranean faster they land troops in Constantinople and go help( in the mean while Croatia has upraised occupying half Yugoslavia).
Greece goes down by 1941( no supplies and surrounded on earth and sea).
1942 lither is loosing in Russia and Balkans( no Normandy since the Balkans are already in allies hand and is closer to Berlin), Romania looses and Hungary sooner follows.
1943/1944 lither is dead, Allies reach first Berlin( few days before Russians).

Peace( only the difference, if not mentioned is like OTL)
-Germany splitted in 3 ( usa, England,france) looses Austria but keeps Prussia( Danzig back to Poland)
-Poland, Romania and Baltic to Russia sphere
-Bulgaria seizes all the macedonia area from Greece
-No Tito in Yugoslavia(gains Albania) or communism in Bulgaria( Allies members)

modern day:
-Bulgaria is a monarchy/empire(Tsar Simeon II) and would have maybe 14 mln people( 9 in 1990 OTL 7 in 2016 because of communism), good economy and is a nation leader of EU.
-Yugoslavia is a federative monarchy( king of Serbia and duchies of Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia,Montenegro and Albania) with some unrest( it's the Balkans after all)
-Macedonia nation concept never existed.
-Greece is a small European nation with worse economy( more debts on Germany XD)
-Germany never experienced communism nor the wall and has even better economy.

thoughts?
 
If OE joins the CP, Bulgaria will jump in the entente ASAP to try take Constantinople( wet dream) so... gallipoli?
let's say Churchill still tries to take the peninsula but the young Ataturk still is able to resit: Bulgaria joins the entente on the condition to take Constantinople( demilitarized or half granted to Russia so their are happy as well) and rushes into the capital entrenching a good portion of Turkish army in the peninsula and entering the capital in no time. The OE is basically defeated and Russia might be able to resist with english supplies from black sea.
If Bulgaria join entente, Serbia will resist and Austria will hope for Romanian intervention because the whole Bulgarian army( 1 mln and 200k at full mobilization) is coming to save the Slav brother from the evil German.

Even if Romania joins the 2 Balkan brothers would be able to resist thanks to english supplies and by 1917/1918 try even an offensive( Bulgaria would be a monster in te Balkans if fully supplied with general vazov), Austria would collapse sooner and Romania alone would surrender.

...

thoughts?

If WW I breaks out as in OTL, then Serbia is part of the Entente alliance, while Turkey is allied to the CP.

Bulgaria cannot invade both of them. Nor Romania, which would join the Entente to attack Austria-Hungary.

Serbia might accept Bulgarian aid against Austria. I doubt though that Bulgaria would send its entire army. OTOH, this is after the FBW, when Serbia and Bulgaria fought together against Turkey. While there was friction after that over the disposition of Macedonia, ITTL that hasn't risen to actual warfare.
 

gurgu

Banned
If WW I breaks out as in OTL, then Serbia is part of the Entente alliance, while Turkey is allied to the CP.

Bulgaria cannot invade both of them. Nor Romania, which would join the Entente to attack Austria-Hungary.

Serbia might accept Bulgarian aid against Austria. I doubt though that Bulgaria would send its entire army. OTOH, this is after the FBW, when Serbia and Bulgaria fought together against Turkey. While there was friction after that over the disposition of Macedonia, ITTL that hasn't risen to actual warfare.
i didn't mean they'll invade serbia, but go help them after taking costantinople, without any other war front( black sea controlled with entente, aegean same, greece is neutral and romania same in that moment.
if they have only one front i think it's pretty obvious to send at least 90% of army there while the other 10% guards the borders(120k).


you di not comment about the rest, so you do agree? i thought i my try a TL about it
 
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