Just as it sounds:
If Britain's power of India never became dominant for whatevever reasons (Britain losing 7 Years War, early 7 Years War end without Clive's victories and stalemate ensues, France managing to get something back in the peace, France instigating a general insurrection of Indian lords during American Revolutionary War, etc), would Britain still have attempted to colonize Australia in late 18th century?
In OTL, Britain's naval power was so supreme in the area that they had no fear (no threat) whatsoever that a remote little settlement on the opposite side of an unsettled continent could be adequately protected and sustained against all comers.
What if they were still challenged by Europeans in the 1780's/90's?
If there were French naval bases along the way from Europe to Asia (maybe on mainland India) and Britain did not have the massive resources of a conquered Raj at their disposal (I may start a new thread about how failing to conquer India would affect Britain's economy, military status and general psyche at some point), would the "Prison Ships" be less likely?
Or more?
Any opinions are welcome. Thanks.