So, let's say for some reason, 9/11 never happens and there is no war in Iraq. As Iraq continues to fail economically, the US and it's allies maintain the no-fly zones established after the Gulf War.
Flash forward to the Arab Spring. A protest movement among the country's Shia majority, located in the south of the country, spreads like wildfire in the country. Desperate to hold onto power and seeing his rival Syria descend into chaos, Saddam sends the military in. Somehow, the Shi'ites acquire weapons (maybe they get them from Iran or sympathetic elements within the Iraqi Army) and begins fighting the Iraqi Army in cities like Basra, giving Saddam the excuse to send the Air Force in.
Now, here's my question. Would the US and it's allies use Saddam's crackdown on the Shi'ite rebellion as an excuse to bring down the Ba'athist regime? According to the US, they had the legal right to establish no-fly zones under UN Security Council Resolution 688, (though the resolution made no references to no-fly zones), so would they act on this supposed legal authority to help bring down the regime? Or would they leave the Shi'ites to their fate since there's a chance they could be backed by Iran?
And what about the Kurds? Would the US and it's allies intervene to protect them since the Kurdish region was also covered by a no-fly zone?
Flash forward to the Arab Spring. A protest movement among the country's Shia majority, located in the south of the country, spreads like wildfire in the country. Desperate to hold onto power and seeing his rival Syria descend into chaos, Saddam sends the military in. Somehow, the Shi'ites acquire weapons (maybe they get them from Iran or sympathetic elements within the Iraqi Army) and begins fighting the Iraqi Army in cities like Basra, giving Saddam the excuse to send the Air Force in.
Now, here's my question. Would the US and it's allies use Saddam's crackdown on the Shi'ite rebellion as an excuse to bring down the Ba'athist regime? According to the US, they had the legal right to establish no-fly zones under UN Security Council Resolution 688, (though the resolution made no references to no-fly zones), so would they act on this supposed legal authority to help bring down the regime? Or would they leave the Shi'ites to their fate since there's a chance they could be backed by Iran?
And what about the Kurds? Would the US and it's allies intervene to protect them since the Kurdish region was also covered by a no-fly zone?