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The average number of German Divisions on the Eastern Front was around 150 - and they were there for 46,5 Months.
Thus the effort spend by the German army on the Eastern Front is
150x46,5= 7000
While in North Africa it would be 4x27= 108
Italy 20x22= 440
Western Europe 60x11=660
Grand Total: 8200
Total Eastern Front: 7000
Total Non Eastern Front: 1200
So the Western Allies in OTL fought less than 15% of the war effort spent by the Wehrmacht.
So without the USSR they would have to invest 7 times as much effort to defeat the German army - which doesnt seem possible.
So aside from the Nuke they dont have much chance of a victory - or is there something else they can do?