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I'm making a map/timeline where the initial America under the Articles of Confederation never successfully agreed on a Constitution. Eventually, the American states broke apart.

I figured what would happen next is that the most populous and powerful states (Virginia by far, with Pennsylvania and Massachusetts as a distant second) would start building spheres of influence around their less populous neighbors, and eventually we would arrive at a world in which there are 3 American confederations or federations.

But that leaves the question of what happens with Louisiana in the meantime. The French Revolution is still happening, and thus, France will most likely take over Louisiana from Spain.

But what happens then? Should France win the Napoleonic Wars, it will most likely keep Louisiana, because there is no United States to buy it. I have no idea what France would do with it then.

Should France lose, then I suppose Britain or Spain would own Louisiana. If Britain gets it, then it hamstrings the "United States" and creates a massive empire in the Americas. If Spain gets it, then, well, Spain's colonial empire was collapsing anyways, and I don't see Spain investing significantly in Louisiana.

In the case of the latter, I can definitely see the southern "United States" slowly taking over Louisiana, with American settlers setting up pro-American substates in the area.

What do you think would happen to Louisiana in a "Disunited States" scenario?
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