If the USA Never Unifies, What Happens to Louisiana?

If France loses the nap wars, Louisiana mostly likely reverts to Spain. a huge part of the Vienna principle was a reversion to prior borders, unless Britain wanted it or had an interest in distributing it equitably amongst the other major powers. I doubt Britain really wants the western half of the continent, and has no real need for New Orleans. It makes more sense to let Spain have it back and deal with the mess.

Too many people here are falling into the trap of simply transferring OTL events where a unified USA developed manifest destiny. Sure, pioneers are still going to migrate, but they are just as likely to simply live under the lax nature of Spanish rule, or make their own new country (which has issues because they don't have much by way of masses), as they are to declare themselves an extension of some far away coastal minor country (at one point there was a debate by kentuckians to ditch Virginia and join Spanish Louisiana). Manifest destiny wasn't just a declaration, it was a magical feeling that the US was something special that inhabitants of 'new' lands wanted to join. take away that magic, and you completely change the dynamics of the personality of the pioneers. OTL was a borg invasion: conquering and assimilating into the ever expanding land of USA. TTL doesn't hold that dynamic. migration, yes. assimilation into some magical growing ideal of a nation? probably not. You simply cannot destroy the entire premise of the unity of the USA and say the same thing would happen except in 3 different confederations.
 
I don't think your Borg analogy works here. Who was conquered and assimilated? The native Americans were wiped out and there weren't that many Mexicans in the northern reaches of the empire. The west was settled by immigration not assimilation. Immigration that I can't see changing. Also the individual colonies had western ambition since before the revolution so if anything the core of manifest destiny predates America. Only now it's like a manifest destiny game show with a half dozen competitors.

I think what we will see are multiple Texas like situations.

Also what happens to Spanish Louisiana territory when Mexico declares its independence?
 
If Santa Anna is not butterflied away, and I see no reason he would cease to exist, then Santa Anna's pride and ego will cause him to see Louisiana as an extension of Mexico. If Louisiana has not been sold and it was returned to Spain instead of France, then I'd imagine we'd see what happened in Texas occur in northern Louisiana, mostly around St Louis and Ste Genevieve led by Daniel Boone's grandkids perhaps (such as Captain James Callaway). Rebellion by the French in New Orleans is likely as well, the French of Louisiana under Spanish rule always forced the Spanish to operate in the French language if they wanted anything to get done; this is probably not going to sit well with Santa Anna and he'll want to Hispanic-fy Louisiana or possibly bring in Anglo-American colonists in a divide and conquer strategy that will backfire. American states on the other side of the Missouri may directly intervene to help, or at least be a source of mercenaries and weapons and a base of operations to raid from relatively safely.

Even the British may not want to see a Mexico THIS big with Louisiana included as it then threatens that the Mexicans could take the Oregon/Columbia territory and block access along the entire western coast all the way to Russian Alaska. Spain's empire was collapsing even before the Congress of Vienna, the British and French may have not given Louisiana back to Spain just out of that consideration alone. A French held Louisiana while Mexico goes independent by 1821 may leave the French in a Haiti situation where Louisiana has to be given independence. In that case I don't see New Orleans holding onto the Upper Mississippi and Missouri valleys in the face of western Anglo-American expansion. And yes I do believe Manifest Destiny predates the USA and was inherent in MA, CT, NY, PA, VA, NC, SC, and GA's very nature prior to the Revolution.

I'm curious as a side note- Does Georgia survive the 1780s and 1790s on its own in the face of Spain without an American army to back it up? I see Georgia becoming a rump state along the Savannah River and forced to become part of South Carolina, its the only state in my belief that would cease to exist in the short term.
 
I admit, I did neglect that Mexico was in turmoil, but not sure it really matters. In Britain's eyes, a newly independent Mexico or a weak Spain work equally well for taking advantage of a region economically. By that point, the USA OTL had been a decent trade partner, but you can't give a territory to a non combatant. If they don't want Spain/Mexico to have it, it would remain in France's hands. They gave France back French Guiana (taken and held by Portugal, who got screwed over in Vienna).

The borg analogy doesn't work for the inhabitants, but it does for the land itself. The americans didn't technically assimilate the inhabitants, but they used and abused and incorporated them into the USA as the US steadily took more and more land. My point was that the manifest destiny mindset of taking over the continent isn't an automatic. It got a start with the gains of 7 yrs war, and then another huge boost with the ridiculously easy LA purchase. Interrupt that with a balkanized US after the revolution, and things change completely.
 
OTL, or TTL (as I've laid out), Spain doesn't have nearly any oomph to threaten Georgia. After the revolution, Spanish presence is almost nil in Florida and remained that way until finally recognizing reality. the only question is whether Georgia can survive economically as a stand alone country. If not, they're partnering with the Carolina's, but not for military purposes. If anything, their main threat is from the north, or from the Indians (who were OTL the only threat from Florida, but in TTL would also potentially be a threat from the west). Indian raids would be a factor, but not enough to destroy Georgia.
 
Unprincipled Peter, you need to lay out what POD you're using that makes Spain weak earlier than the Napoleonic Wars because the POD you're using as I understand it is that the US Constitution convention does not happen or it isn't ratified (possibly because of G. Washington's death?). This makes the POD earlier than the French Revolution and would leave Spain still strong in that area, Spain would wipe out Georgia before Napoleon ever comes into play. No way would the two Carolinas unite, let alone to defend Georgia. It's ASB this idea of a Southern Confederacy.

In OTL Spain threaten Georgia and the USA in what is now Mississippi and Alabama and in fact the Spanish are who Aaron Burr and General Wilkerson were conspiring with to separate the western lands from the USA; and it was Spanish bullying that caused Jefferson to want to buy New Orleans. ITTL Aaron Burr might be one to consider setting up an independent nation in the west, along with Colonel Calloway who in OTL agitated for a Kentucky separate from Virginia (and the idea that western separation was popular is highly overrated and wrong; there's a reason Transylvania and Franklin failed).
 
Top