If the US was not independent would the rest of the Americas have become independent?

The USA inspired Hispanic America to become independent with Brazil, Canada and etc... being the exception.
But if the US had lost the war or never revolted. Could another colony achieve independence through war or would Canada have the fate of becoming autonomous over time? or of brazil becoming the capital of the colonial empire and becoming more valuable than its own colonizer?

What would be the possible outcome of the americas if the US never became independent?
 
The USA inspired Hispanic America to become independent with Brazil, Canada and etc... being the exception.
This is true that the revolt and independence achieved by the United States was one inspiration for Hispanic America.

But there were other influences in history that the Hispanic Americans would have know of and have been affected by. Off hand, I can think of four:

(1) the French Revolution which overthrew the existing authority of the ruling classes.

(2) In the New World itself and close by the Spanish colonies, the successful revolt of Haiti against their French colonial masters.

(3) The Swiss cantons who established their freedom from the Holy Roman Empire (think of the folk hero William Tell and the apple on his son’s head).

(4) The 80 years struggle that the Dutch fought, finally winning their independence from Spain.

In all four cases, the freed nation established what was essentially a republic. And an example to Hispanic America.
 
How much impact did the American Revolution have on the first two? There had to be at least some "if they can do it" thinking in France and Haiti.
 
I do think it might change the type of republic people think could be successful- Haiti, the Dutch, swiss being relatively small might play into the classical idea that larger territories require some level of autocracy.

Maybe constitutional monarchy is a more popular goal?
 
The French Revolution likely doesn't happen without the American War of Independence, as the French financial situation would be better.
We can go with "the war happens, the revolutionaries loose"

I think Hispanic America would have ended independent anyway, because of Ferdinand VII refusal to compromise with the liberals. The revolutionaries may be more cautious at first, but war pushes positions to the extremes. And if any of the viceroyalties remain under Spanish rule, they can still break free as any ATL Carlislt war happens anyway
 
I think Hispanic America would have ended independent anyway, because of Ferdinand VII refusal to compromise with the liberals. The revolutionaries may be more cautious at first, but war pushes positions to the extremes. And if any of the viceroyalties remain under Spanish rule, they can still break free as any ATL Carlislt war happens anyway
Honestly, and it's maybe just me, but it would be fascinating if Hispanic America became the trend-setters in terms of democratic government, alongside France (up to a point, of course). Could, say, a more Swiss-like model work for a federal government, for instance?
 

mspence

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The French Revolution likely doesn't happen without the American War of Independence, as the French financial situation would be better.
Or maybe not, given their wars with Britain. Another one might have caused it to happen later on.

Mexico, Central and South America might be dominated by conservatives who would say, "See? The Americans failed because they wanted too much."
 
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Honestly, and it's maybe just me, but it would be fascinating if Hispanic America became the trend-setters in terms of democratic government, alongside France (up to a point, of course). Could, say, a more Swiss-like model work for a federal government, for instance?
It depends too much on the details of each resulting country. If the Viceroyalty of the River Plate still looses Uruguay, how do you keep a Swiss-like model when one single province has the only port in the entire country. And if it keeps Uruguay, when it's two of them?
And that's one of the few countries that chose a federal style of government.
 
The French Revolution likely doesn't happen without the American War of Independence, as the French financial situation would be better.
It might happen later, but it will still happen. The Revolution was caused by rising pressure from the third Estate for reform, and the insolvency of the State. The financial cost of the ARW may have accelerated the process but didn't cause it. Even without the war the cost of the French naval buildup was enormous.
 
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