Butterflies aside, do you think Maximilian would be in a better or worse position to remain in power if he still became Emperor of Mexico in this scenario?
If he hasn't captured or killed Juarez by the time the American Civil War ends he's pretty well pooched. Juarez is the key to the rebellion, if he gets killed the movement might splinter, and if that happens the rebels become more of a nuisance than a genuine threat.
In the long run though I suspect he's in a bad place. Max signed some disastrous deals with France as far as finances went and without the mineral wealth in the northwest he'll have a tough time paying it back.
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