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a) will inevitably lead to US-Japanese war
b) is unlikely to lead to US-Japanese war
c) is more likely than not to lead to US-Japanese war, but US-Japanese war could still be plausibly avoided

Here is the set-up- The Germans decide to launch unrestricted U-Boat warfare across the Atlantic into the waters of the western hemisphere in March 1941 shortly after the passage on the Lend-Lease Act on March 11. Hitler decides that with the US openly serving as quartermaster for the British, there is nothing for him to lose by launching a borderless U-Boat offensive against all US and Allied hulls, with no "off-limits" sanctuaries.

The offensive begins in April 15, 1941. The US recognizes the clearly changed pattern in the German rules of engagement and declares war on Germany by May 15, 1941.


Assume Hitler still launches Barbarossa on time (he is working off the assumption that the US cannot do much until 1942, and that he'll definitely beat the USSR before 1941 is out, and he has a hunch that Japan will enter the war at some point in 1941 to distract already limited US forces).

In this situation, what is the likelihood of Japan joining in an attack on the western allies?

Reasons why it might be inevitable:
1. Whether the WAllies want to formally embargo Japan, or not, as a form of political protest, they will conserve their oil production for their own war effort against Germany, which means a de facto oil embargo in the near future.
2. Japan knows it will eventually, sooner or later, run out of liquid funds to purchase such oil as may remain on the global market.
3. The U.S. had already demonstrated partial hostility to Japan by embargoing scrap and high-octane fuel in 1940 and making loans to China and re-basing the Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbor instead of San Diego.
4. With the Germans fulling engaging the Americans and British in the Atlantic and in control of Europe, and a freshly signed Japanese neutrality pact with the USSR, the geopolitics of striking to secure an East Asian resource zone will never get better.

Reasons why it might be unlikely:
1. The United States has not embargoed all fuel or frozen Japanese financial assets by May 1941.
2. Japan has only occupied northern Indochina, not central and southern Indochina
3. The U.S. has not yet set up USAFFE under MacArthur in the PI yet, nor sent B-17s, nor the Flying Tiger volunteers to China under Chennault.
4. The U.S. might be perceived as waging war against Germany with a determination that undermines any Japanese assumption that America would be inclined to cut its losses and peace out.
5. The U.S. may be harder to surprise strategically and tactically.

Small variables - Lend-Lease was formally extended to China at some point in April 1941. Maybe this happens as scheduled in OTL. Or maybe it does not, because the US is too preoccupied with the Atlantic situation for the moment.

Your thoughts?
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