If the US did not enter WW1, would Germany win?

[BlondieBC]

Education was very poor in the AH empire outside the major cities and developed parts of the empire like Austria and Bohemia. Most did not speak more than 1-2 languages and learned those mostly through need. The draft mostly picked up the poor peasants that couldn't find a way out of the draft, either through bribery or some other scheme, so were generally the least educated and cosmopolitan elements of the empire. They were generally Slavs in the infantry, the bulk of the army, with the technical branches being mostly German, Hungarian, and Czech, who all were educated and spoke or understood German anyway, but didn't have to speak it for political reasons in the army.

So would 3-4 language be correct for the Urban literate class?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

So would 3-4 language be correct for the Urban literate class?

Probably, as that was the number of critical languages (German, Magyar, Czech, Polish) in the Empire, but supposedly the Habsburgs were known to speak even more (6-7).

 

[BlondieBC]

German forces are stiffening Ottoman resistance, and the Turks know that if they emerge on the winning side then it is pretty much irrelevant how much territory they have lost to enemy control during the war. Thus joint German-Ottoman strategy would have been to continue a fighting withdrawal to Anatolia, because it is feasible and defensible, and it prevents the front from collapsing.

Ottomans do better than this.

When the Tsar abdicated, the Russian troops left, so in Anatolia, it was only the Armenian army, 50% reduction in troop levels. Then without Russian navy being so active, supplies can be moved by boat via black sea. So the Ottomans likely gain back all their land plus "Turkish" Persia and parts of Russia before the cease fire.

The main bottle neck towards Mesopotamia was the gaps in the RR. This was improving a little each month, and with more industrial availability in the ATL, it could be fixed easier. The main shortage was the actual rails, which can be looted from Russia or made in Austria. We likely see gains as the UK is forced to pull troops to France. Falling back to Basra makes a lot of sense for the UK.

The UK likely falls back to a a few 10's of miles east of the Suez. It is very easy to defend there for a while.

The Ottomans will have a lot of spare corps buck lack the ability to attack down towards the Suez or Basra due to limited supplies. Attacks limited to one to two corp, so they likely push back towards Mecca with the spare troops. The units are too light for the Western Front, and i don't see the Ottomans going passive unless forced to by logistics.

By early 1918, about 12 months after the supply reductions, the Ottomans should be near their starting positions in Palestine, Iraq, and Arabia. They have significant gains in the East.