If the US did not enter WW1, would Germany win?

[Danth]

Ottomans should still collapse to be fair even of Germany won. Austria hungry would have to go through a major turmoil.

Britain would keep it's colonies though some would become dominions.
France would collapse into communism
As would Russia
Germany would be happy with the eastern territories and eventually the german regions of AH

Small commie revolt in Glasgow easily put down

Japan would keep germanise pasific colonies

Southafrica might gold onto east Africa

And I think that germany's dreams of a colonial power are gone

Britain would be severly weakened maybe even a earlier decolonisation

 

[General Mosh]

So do you think my treaty proposal is realistic blondie? That is for the end of negotiations, I'm sure both sides would like different terms. I'm coming up with initial allied and German demands. It will eventually go back to what I posted though.

 

[BlondieBC]

Why not? I understand what you're getting at here though, it would have hardly been a total victory. Presumably the Germans take Paris and make peace with the allies. So perhaps they force some minor colonial possessions out of France, as well as a European province, some major economic reparations from France, and some minor ones from England. Perhaps this would mean a very unstable France with a stable England looking on in worry.

Unless you have German win the surface battles decisively or take the Suez Canal, you can't really force the UK to give you things. But the UK can't force Belgium to ever be free again with a Navy alone. So it is a classic negotiation setting. I would not rule out the UK fighting on in all ATL, but they likely make peace especially if Germany ask for colonies. Is German East Africa and Kamerun really more important to the UK than 15" German guns on the Pas de Calais? No. It is more a question of will Germany haggle. Does Germany want to cripple France more than get colonies back?

So like I said, some minor reparations and perhaps a small African colony or two. Like Sierra Leone or something.

Much, much more likely to be German colonies returned. And much more likely to be French colonies than UK colonies if new colonies. France is trading sacred french soil for colonial lands. The UK has lost zero UK land in the war, unless you have an odd twist.

 

[Vingilótë]

People are talking about Germany getting a small colony from Britain, but frankly, they'd have to do some very good diplomacy just to get back the colonies they did lose.

 

[General Mosh]

I forgot about Japan. They would probably come out of the war with the most honorable peace conditions, getting some German Pacific possessions.

 

[General Mosh]

Thanks guys. This has helped. Ill edit the colonial a bit more.

 

[BlondieBC]

Britain would still be unbeaten and largely invulnerable. The RN would still rule the seas, and Germany would be slowly starving. Germany would never be in a position to dictate unfavorable peace terms to Britain. There would be no reparations, no return of colonies seized by Britain and Japan, or any possibility that a peace treaty would address any limitations on British naval might.

To obtain a British acceptance of Germany as the dominant continental power, Germany would probably have to give up pretentions of challenging the British Navy by accepting agreed upon limits of future building - enough that the German navy would become only a regionally powerful European fleet (like Russia or France) not a potential equal (like the USN).

The UK is in a strategic stalemate, not a superior position. The Germans have to build a Navy to defeat the UK. The UK has to build an army of 200-300 divisions from 60 divisions. Both have internal issue. The UK is broke and will be cutoff from world markets due to lack of cash, and only able to import using debt in the colonies.

The UK will eventually wear out, and without having the POD, one can't tell if Germany or the UK collapses first in a much longer war. The UK can no easier make Antwerp free than Germany can occupy London. Germany will not agree to naval limits that are "unfair" from the German perspective.

IOTL, the turks forced a negotiated peace. Germany will be much stronger than a part of the Ottoman empire. We know the UK will break long before 1923 in France loses in WW1 TL.

 

[BlondieBC]

All sounds good, except this bit. Yes, Germany was starving, but so was Britain. Especially since after 1916, the US is in no position to give aid to the UK. So, with no one to give much aid to them, Russia and France have fallen, I don't think its unreasonable for the Germans to expect major reparations and territorial gains from France, but obviously only slight reparations from the UK. Austria-Hungary will probably want some small territorial gains from Italy and some reparations. The Ottomans will probably settle for some money. Is there anyone else on the allies that AH and the Ottomans had an interest in? I'm pretty sure there's not.

The US has just started the Second Mexican War in late 1916, they're not giving much aid to the allies, as the American people are concerned with Mexico. And then the American people get bogged down in a guerrilla war in Mexico for some time. So yeah, they're staying out of Europe.

Germany will be getting its food easily from the Ukraine by 1919. There are a huge number of trade lines in B/L from OTL. The risk is A-H will not make it to the 1919 harvest, not that Germany slowly starves it self out of the war. But do remember that hungry Germans apply pressure to accept any "reasonable" Entente/UK offer.

A-H wants a Hapsburg on Poland throne, but this is more a Germany/A-H issue. A-H might wants rights to Saloniki. A-H might want some islands in the Adriatic.

 

[BlondieBC]

One thing is sure, Germany will NOT get enough grain from the Ukraine to make a substaintial difference.

How do you figure that? Can you provide details to your reasoning? The Ukraine clearly has enough food to feed a lot of Germany. Germany had a clear pattern of looting food and metals from both Belgium and Poland.

Do you also believe this to be true for Romania after they make peace?

 

[General Mosh]

AH is probably gonna collapse anyways.

 

[Ace Venom]

As far as a treaty goes, I'd say Germany holding on to Belgium would be considered borderline unacceptable. The UK entered the war to defend Belgian neutrality, so that will be a huge sticking point. Germany would also not be able to get back the colonies they lost to Japan or the UK. Germany in this scenario could instead demand the Belgian Congo in exchange for withdrawing from Belgium. However, I do not expect Germany to bend on the occupation of Luxembourg and I don't think the UK would push that issue very heavily.

Germany would also want Brest-Litovsk recognized and I don't see the UK being able to protest this very much. Austria-Hungary might occupy parts of northeast Italy. I could see the Ottomans demanding a revision of the Treaty of Lausanne in their favor, but accepting a status quo peace with Britain. I doubt the Ottomans could get Libya back from Italy, but the Dodecanese Islands are fair game.

There is absolutely no way France gets out of this unharmed. If there can be no territorial concessions in Africa, then Germany will demand heavy reparation payments from France. They could likely get Kamerun back, though Togoland might be out of the question. Britain would just take it before they allowed the Germans to have it back. Likewise, Britain will be keeping Southwest Africa and East Africa. Germany will lose all its Pacific colonies.

 

[Vnix]

Didn't the Germans maintain they only wanted to go through Belgium and not occupy it? If they offer the UK a free Belgium with German enterprises to repair damage in Belgium the UK may be billing to accept Brest-Litovsk. That alone would be a grand German diplomatic victory.

 

[BlondieBC]

There is absolutely no way France gets out of this unharmed. If there can be no territorial concessions in Africa, then Germany will demand heavy reparation payments from France. They could likely get Kamerun back, though Togoland might be out of the question. Britain would just take it before they allowed the Germans to have it back. Likewise, Britain will be keeping Southwest Africa and East Africa. Germany will lose all its Pacific colonies.

Why Togoland, what do you see different about this colony from Kamerun?

Didn't the Germans maintain they only wanted to go through Belgium and not occupy it? If they offer the UK a free Belgium with German enterprises to repair damage in Belgium the UK may be billing to accept Brest-Litovsk. That alone would be a grand German diplomatic victory.

Yes, initially they were just passing through. But later in the war, you can see Germans in USA papers calling for it to be kept as a "natural part" of Germany. There is also justifications due to the illegal UK blockade. And other theories. In reality, Germany wanted Antwerp and the mouth of the Rhine.

I do think the UK gets Belgium to be free and neutral again, but I think they will give up more than B-L. It will either be B-L plus a respectable colonial empire in Africa in exchange for Belgium and going easy on France. Or it will be B-L plus the industrial region of France in exchange for Belgium and loss of all colonies. Germany will be ok with either, it is more based on how much the UK wants more colonies versus trying to keep France as a great Power. A lot depends on the POD and the butterflies.

 

[Vingilótë]

Why Togoland, what do you see different about this colony from Kamerun?

It was the only profitable colony, IIRC.

 

[Snake Featherston]

No, I don't think Germany would. The state was exhausted, the army was running out of reserves, and the Germans were already having major problems just sustaining their existing campaigns in 1916. The only thing that saved them in 1917 was the Tsar's idiocy leading to his overthrow and the only thing that enabled them to last to 1918 was that the German generals engaged in blatant lies about what was really going on at the Front.

 

[Vnix]

Why Togoland, what do you see different about this colony from Kamerun?




Yes, initially they were just passing through. But later in the war, you can see Germans in USA papers calling for it to be kept as a "natural part" of Germany. There is also justifications due to the illegal UK blockade. And other theories. In reality, Germany wanted Antwerp and the mouth of the Rhine.

I do think the UK gets Belgium to be free and neutral again, but I think they will give up more than B-L. It will either be B-L plus a respectable colonial empire in Africa in exchange for Belgium and going easy on France. Or it will be B-L plus the industrial region of France in exchange for Belgium and loss of all colonies. Germany will be ok with either, it is more based on how much the UK wants more colonies versus trying to keep France as a great Power. A lot depends on the POD and the butterflies.

In my opinion it would be funny if the Germans demanded that French Flanders including Calais were to become Belgian aka Flemish, just to screw France a bit more but also to 'help' the Flamish nationalists. Furthermore I'd be surprised if the Germans didn't demand Flemish equality in Belgium after all they did to promote the Flemish identity over the Belgian one during the war.

 

[Clandango]

The UK has lost zero UK land in the war, unless you have an odd twist.

Just so long as nothing goes wrong in Ireland.

 

[Clandango]

Didn't the Germans maintain they only wanted to go through Belgium and not occupy it? If they offer the UK a free Belgium with German enterprises to repair damage in Belgium the UK may be billing to accept Brest-Litovsk. That alone would be a grand German diplomatic victory.

Until the Grand Duke of Luxembourg alked into the room.

 

[Alex1guy]

No, I don't think Germany would. The state was exhausted, the army was running out of reserves, and the Germans were already having major problems just sustaining their existing campaigns in 1916. The only thing that saved them in 1917 was the Tsar's idiocy leading to his overthrow and the only thing that enabled them to last to 1918 was that the German generals engaged in blatant lies about what was really going on at the Front.

I agree with Snake. I seriously doubt Germany, even after capturing Paris would be able to make many gains against Britain. Like people have pointed out, unless the RN has been destroyed, they are basically invulnerable and won't need/want to make many concessions. There would be a lot of bluffing involved (Neither side would really want to continue fighting, but they would pretend they could). France is basically fried in this situation and is going to lose a lot of territory, both home and abroad. Germany is going to want to legitimize it's gains in the East and keep France down but I don't think it is going to regain any occupied colonies (Britain is going to want something to show for such losses).

 

[ChaosNDiscord]

If Germany knocks France out on the continent, the British will return colonies, and probably give up small chunks of them, etc if it restores both France and Belgium.

I say this because once France is down and out, Germany will have access through now neutral french and (still neutral) dutch ports which they can use to break the British blockade. And that's not including the grain they'll be looting from the Ukraine. Don't forget the military occupation won't be concerned about feeding civilians in occupied countries so long as the German people and armies are fed. The British can't stop shipments to France from the USA without eventually drawing the US into the war as a German co-belligerant. And don't doubt that the Germans, if facing a British holdout would by treaty or brutal occupation, force France to either surrender mass quantities of her own produce or import it from the States.

The British aren't stupid, they can't win the war on their own, and the German's can't knock out Britain. They'll negotiate a peace that leaves France intact though probably with strong military limits, reparations, restores Belgium, recognizes the annexation of Luxembourg, and restores the German colonies in africa.

Japan won't be returning anything though that's pretty much a guarantee.