Japan by attacking the USA, Dutch, and UK bring the UK back into the war. Germany would have to declare on both, or if Germany just declares war on USA, USA would pressure UK to enter war again.
What did UK loose in peace deal in '40, maybe nothing at all, just a cease of hostilities with Germany?
With a peace in '40, Italy does not go after Greece in '41. Italy does go into Balkans, but does not need German help. Brits supply Yugoslav resistance fighters. So Russians receive full German effort.
Question is, what happened to Russia in '41? Also, did UK shift units to SE Asia after peace with Germany is met? Is Germany more successful in Russia with the same three objectives in South, Center, North? Logistics on the eastern front are the same but with more troops from Africa and less German troops occupying France, Germans have to be more successful somewhere in Russia. Perhaps this results in full capture of Leningrad in '41 which then releases more resources for Moscow and Caucus in summer of '42.
Germans would be fully engaged in Russia even more. USA and UK are able to keep Russia in the fight, but Germans are in a stronger position in Russia.
Torch is postponed as first US/UK landings are in Persia to set up base in fall of '42. They hold the German line at the Caucuses, able to defend Middle East oil and ensure that Baku does not produce much for the Germans.
North Africa landings occur in '43
Sicily and Italy and southern France in '44 along with Balkans in '44
English channel to France in '45
Germany surrenders in '46. Western allies liberate Poland, Czech, Hungary, and Slovakia ….. Soviets liberate Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria so Iron Curtain is more East.
Japan is screwed whenever USA captures Mariana islands. Say this is same in '44.
Nuke timetable is same, August of '45 USA has three, produces three per month. Where are they dropped? Is Japan still first, probably so. So Hiroshima and Nagasaki still occur. There is no Russians in Manchuria yet, so does Japan surrender? Probably not, USA might land in southern Korea first in Sept of '45. Japanese cities may keep on being lit up with nukes so a third and fourth are lit up. Japan finally surrenders in Sept '45. Would a German city or two be targeted for atom bomb? Probably, so which one? Dresden, Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt. Say the south and East are targeted as least likely to be in allied path to Berlin but supplying German war effort. Munich is first German city to be nuked. Dresden is second. So a total of six nukes are deployed, four on Japan and two on Germany.
So outcome of war
- Iron curtain is rolled back east and with no Soviet conquer of Berlin, is there a cold war? Probably smaller.
- Soviet influence in Asia is less. Soviets resupply Chinese communists but not at same rate as OTL. So do Chinese communists still win civil war? Probably so as Nationalists find ways to squander advantages, may take one to two years more.
- Korea is united and an American protectorate. No Korean war.
- USA takes a stronger stance at de-colonizing Asia and Africa. Pressures France into releasing Indochina which it does in the 1950's
- in the Middle East
- West still props up Israel
- With smaller eastern Block, does USA back Britain and France with Suez crisis? It probably is more of a silent backer.