If the U.S. fails and all the colonies become separate, what happens to the West?

In this scenario, and assuming he is not butterflied away, Napoleon has nobody to sell the Louisiana to.

Would he even take it from Spain, or decide it's completely worthless? And might we see colonists from Virginia, Georgia, etc. establishing different countries there anyway?
 
It depends, in many ways, on just how the US falls apart.

Virginia, for example, I see taking over OTL Missouri, perhaps making a smaller "Louisiana purchase". Depending on if North Carolina throws their lot in with them, maybe more then that.

Regardless, I doubt you will see any nation stretch from "sea to shining sea", short of one of the post-USA nations utterly dominating its peers. The fartest I could see them go would be the Plains states - Virginia, for example, I could see stretching from the Chesapeake to Kansas.

I could see eventually, separate nations in Texas, California, the Pacific Northwest, maybe a few around the Rockies or Southwest. Perhaps some Native American nation(s) in the Dakotas or Montana area.

All in all though, you'd have some flexibility.
 
A semi-related question, would Maryland go alone, or would it join a Mid-Atlantic Fedeation?

I was thinking they split almost immediately after independence, the likely cause is that the british lose all the continent and the 15-ish independent colonies don't come to any agreement.
 
Would he even take it from Spain, or decide it's completely worthless?

Both, as IOTL.

At first, he did have the idea to form an American empire, with Haiti and Carribeans. So he took Louisiana from Spain.

And when Haiti prooven unreconquerable, and Royal Navy being far too important to really try anything funny in the region, he just sold that to US for monies that he needed on Europe.

Assuming Haiti is lost
He probably send the land back to Spain and sell separate pieces to neighbouring American states. It would have a hell of a time making it as much worthwhile than IOTL though, giving the far less important interest on the Mississipi basin and critically New Orleans.

Assuming Haiti isn't lost.
You may end with a still french Louisiana, but I think Napoleon would still sell most of it to American states, while possibly keeping the Lower Louisiana under his control. *Maybe* an exchange of territory with Spain (as in, you can have all of the worthless North, but gimme a bit more of your coastal lands up to...say Trinidad River).

If not, you could see a big part of it ending on British control de jure or de facto (at least the northern part).
It's as likely to see New Orleans ending being occupied by Britain in these wars, while France *could* take it back diplomatically...Butterflies being huge, I'm not really sure how.
 
Depends on the timing

If we're looking at a breakup stemming from a failed Constitutional Convention (or soon thereafter), it might be worth looking at what areas between the Appalachians and the Mississippi were claimed by the original states:

640px-United_States_land_claims_and_cessions_1782-1802.png


Realistically, if the whole thing falls apart, Britain would reoccupy OTL Wisconsin and Upper Michigan at a minimum, maybe more. This would place Britain in a position to seize part or all of the Louisiana Territory, either via purchase or in war. You would likely see the would-be states of Vandalia, Transylvania, and Franklin (and more) fight for sovereignty. Delaware might fold back into Pennsylvania and New England may unite, but I believe the rest of the states would stay independent.

Personally, as a native Clevelander, I would love to see what someone could do with a timeline where the Western Reserve (northeast Ohio) remains part of Connecticut.
 
Depending on what confederations you have (don't see 13 independent "states") you'll see the states/groups of states extending claims to the Mississippi, how much conflict will depend on what groupings emerge. I expect Vermont will end up divided between NY & NH. Unlikely you'll see any of the territories between Appalachians & Mississippi break off say from Virginia or Georgia or Pennsylvania to become independent, if you have a group of colonies in some sort of confederation might admit them as new "states". The "Old Northwest" territories (particularly WI & MI but a little of IL & OH) did have residual British presence for a while after the Revolution, but with Britain involved with Napoleon in the first decade of the 19th century so their holding on there in face of efforts by the countries of North America to secure the lines agreed upon at the peace treaty that ended the Revolution is doubtful. basically there were few "British" civilians there, a few trappers/traders and a few forts - mainly British influence on Native American tribes.

Net result of all this is I expect the various "American" countries to extend to the Mississippi, including at least part of Minnesota up to where twin cities are/head of navigation. Florida and Gulf Coast probably remain Spanish though I expect whatever state/country has OTL Miss & Al will want to get at least a piece of the Gulf Coast as an outlet.

What happens west of the Mississippi is a crap shoot. Spain keeps Texas to California (OTL Texas, NM, AZ, Cali), UK probably gets OTL Oregon & Washington). The French could keep what was OTL Louisiana purchase - its empty of no obvious value & Britain might take some of the northern part adjacent to Canada, but Canada west of the Great Lakes in the early 19th century was empty of settlers.

Not improbable that you end up in 1820 with several countries east of the Mississippi, a French colony from Louisiana north & west, Britain with a bigger Canada, especially on west coast, and Spain from Texas to California and Florida (though Spain MIGHT sell Florida/Gulf Coast to the southernmost "American" country). Also a no man's land Rocky Mts to Sierras - it was pretty empty in 1820 anyways.

What happens to the Spanish holdings when the colonies start to break away from Spain who knows, I don't think Mexico could hold them too far from centers of power etc in Mexico in first half and later in 19th century.
 

jahenders

Banned
Lots of possibilities

I could see the colonies NOT reaching agreement on a constitution and going off into 2-3 different groups, with 1 or 2 trying it alone.

In that case, they'd be weaker vis-a-vis England and would probably never resist British actions that led to the war of 1812. UK would probably grab some more disputed lands and some of the colonies might reclaim land they'd ceded. I assume France would try to sell pieces of the Louisiana Territory to different takers -- some of the colonies, Spain, etc.

The colonies would, in general, expand West, but it would be slower and there might be some areas they could never take. Also, some areas that are colonized by the states/state groups might then break away from their founder.

So, where the US is, you might have 3-4 colonial-derived confederations, some areas retained by Britain that become part of Canada, some areas retained by Spain (that eventually go independent), a few areas not sold by France (New Orleans) that are ceded to Britain, a larger Mexico, and maybe a few Native American nations that organize enough to establish (and maintain) boundaries.

In that TL, eventually you'd have wars between some of those nations, but fear of the others would limit the scope. Those state confederations would likely be split along slavery lines, so the civil war wouldn't erupt on that score. You might still have Texas helped to independence, but you'd probably never have an invasion of Mexico. With various neighboring countries, these states aren't protected by two oceans and don't become major naval presences or get into overseas adventures (Phillipines, Cuba, etc). When WWI comes along, you could see some of them, potentially on either side, but many stay neutral; likewise WWII.

So, a very different North American, indeed.
 
If Quebeq is independent, is it possible they would attempt to reestablish New France?

Short answer : No.

Long Answer : Nobody was really interested on New France reestablishment, critically not French canadians that were leftover as an old sandwich, or France that saw in the whole thing a colossal waste of time and ressources.
Safe a really important geopolitical change in Europe or Americas (safe absence of USA obviously), I don't see that happening.
 
I honestly think Britain might go for the old Northwest. None of the new states are really capable of contesting British ownership. Spain might make a bid for an expanded West Florida too.
 
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