...and a Germany versus west war still occurred...Spain would more likely have:
a) become a belligerent
b) remained neutral
a) become a belligerent
b) remained neutral
If the Spanish Nationalists did not win the Civil War...
- Thread starter raharris1973
- Start date
Anaxagoras
Banned
One assumes that Spain would have been a supporter of the USSR in this case. I doubt Hitler would have been willing to leave them alone.
Imperator Maximilianius
Banned
A communist country south of France? There's no way he'd leave them alone!
Spain would definitely stay out of the opening phases of the War assuming their civil war ends roughly at the same time. They would likely be invaded soon after the fall of France and would fall quickly.
What's interesting is how this would affect Portugal; I recall they were vaguely pro-Axis and having Hitler next door might push them into co-belligerence with the Germans. You might see A D-Day in the Iberian peninsula, possibly before '44. As the Wehrmacht would be spread thin trying to cover Iberia plus their OTL commitments
Though if the Army revolts that started the civil war are put down before they can get organized or contained to Morocco you might have a situation where Spain, not ravaged by the war, joins the Allies and fights Germany. It's possible they help blunt the German advance or (more likely in my opinion) they are overrun and Spain is invaded shortly after France as above
What's interesting is how this would affect Portugal; I recall they were vaguely pro-Axis and having Hitler next door might push them into co-belligerence with the Germans. You might see A D-Day in the Iberian peninsula, possibly before '44. As the Wehrmacht would be spread thin trying to cover Iberia plus their OTL commitments
Though if the Army revolts that started the civil war are put down before they can get organized or contained to Morocco you might have a situation where Spain, not ravaged by the war, joins the Allies and fights Germany. It's possible they help blunt the German advance or (more likely in my opinion) they are overrun and Spain is invaded shortly after France as above
The "Spain becomes involved" is the clear winner of the poll so far, and there's marked consensus between responding posts that Hitler's going to attack Spain.
Interesting. So you see Hitler invading Spain in 1940, with the battle of Spain replacing the Battle of Britain?
But will Hitler being OK leaving the Soviet Union alone unmolested while he does a blitzkrieg against Spain, a perceived Soviet ally where the communists have demonstrable influence on policy. He could go for that, but might he not feel that sort of spoils the surprise about his intentions toward the Soviet Union.
Some might say the logic of preemption and fondness to surprise foes rather than be surprised by them would encourage Hitler to go for simultaneous offensives in 1941, or less likely in 1940.
At a minimum, I think a Republican Spain creates an interesting challenge for Germany in terms of sequencing and timing.
In practice a simultaneous invasion of Spain and the USSR would be really hard to do (especially in 1940), and could necessitate Germany assuming a longer timeframe for Barbarossa to ultimately succeed, possibly a multi-season fight.
So you see Spain as likely to join the Allied side in 1939 even though they don't owe them anything? Possibly I guess, although I would note that Spain managed to stay neutral throughout WWI.
Interesting. So you see Hitler invading Spain in 1940, with the battle of Spain replacing the Battle of Britain?
But will Hitler being OK leaving the Soviet Union alone unmolested while he does a blitzkrieg against Spain, a perceived Soviet ally where the communists have demonstrable influence on policy. He could go for that, but might he not feel that sort of spoils the surprise about his intentions toward the Soviet Union.
Some might say the logic of preemption and fondness to surprise foes rather than be surprised by them would encourage Hitler to go for simultaneous offensives in 1941, or less likely in 1940.
At a minimum, I think a Republican Spain creates an interesting challenge for Germany in terms of sequencing and timing.
In practice a simultaneous invasion of Spain and the USSR would be really hard to do (especially in 1940), and could necessitate Germany assuming a longer timeframe for Barbarossa to ultimately succeed, possibly a multi-season fight.
So you see Spain as likely to join the Allied side in 1939 even though they don't owe them anything? Possibly I guess, although I would note that Spain managed to stay neutral throughout WWI.
Spain would remain neutral in 1939-1940 - too beat up from the Civil War, and the Moscow-line Communists would oppose joining the anti-Germany alliance.
I don't see Hitler invading Spain in 1940. Vichy France is in the way, for one thing; and for another, it's a red flag towards the USSR. Hitler needs to maintain that alliance till it's time to march east.
Even after BARBAROSSA, invading Spain is a costly distraction the Germans can't afford.
If there is a TORCH analog, Spain would become exposed - but Germany would have no forces to spare for a Spanish campaign.
Later on - if the Allies could get Spain to join up, that would obviate the need for an amphibious operation in western Europe. The Allies could begin OVERLORD with several large, convenient, intact ports in hand: Barcelona, San Sebastian, Bilbao. This more than makes up for the extra distance.
Rich,
Stalin would want Spain to join the war ASAP.
Whether Spain would go along would be a remarkably interesting question.
Given how much of a political role the Communists would have in Spain, Spain's willingness to join the war and host allied forces, or not, would be a remarkable litmus test of where Spain sits in the spectrum from a foreign policy run by a Stalinist communist party versus a foreign policy where the caution and justifiable war-weariness of democratic public opinion dominates.
LHB,
This is a fascinating scenario and I have often brought it up as a side effect of any war that starts over Czechoslovakia in 1938. Of course by the fall of 1939 the Nationalists had the upper hand, but it wasn't *all* over.
I would imagine that the most likely consequence of an ongoing Spanish Civil War when WWII starts (whether its because WWII starts earlier or the Spanish Civil War drags on longer) would be that the allies have a peripheral front where they can fight, win and gain experience during the initial phony war on the Franco-German border.
Odds are the Allies will at a minimum have a redoubt to keep resisting even if the Germans take over some or all of France (which isn't guaranteed either).
Much less likely, but at least as interesting would be if the Spanish Civil War continued during WWII, with Spanish Nationalists holding on and then France *did* fall. I don't see how Hitler could and would *not* invade in such circumstances, despite all the drawbacks of doing so.
Stalin would want Spain to join the war ASAP.
Whether Spain would go along would be a remarkably interesting question.
Given how much of a political role the Communists would have in Spain, Spain's willingness to join the war and host allied forces, or not, would be a remarkable litmus test of where Spain sits in the spectrum from a foreign policy run by a Stalinist communist party versus a foreign policy where the caution and justifiable war-weariness of democratic public opinion dominates.
LHB,
This is a fascinating scenario and I have often brought it up as a side effect of any war that starts over Czechoslovakia in 1938. Of course by the fall of 1939 the Nationalists had the upper hand, but it wasn't *all* over.
I would imagine that the most likely consequence of an ongoing Spanish Civil War when WWII starts (whether its because WWII starts earlier or the Spanish Civil War drags on longer) would be that the allies have a peripheral front where they can fight, win and gain experience during the initial phony war on the Franco-German border.
Odds are the Allies will at a minimum have a redoubt to keep resisting even if the Germans take over some or all of France (which isn't guaranteed either).
Much less likely, but at least as interesting would be if the Spanish Civil War continued during WWII, with Spanish Nationalists holding on and then France *did* fall. I don't see how Hitler could and would *not* invade in such circumstances, despite all the drawbacks of doing so.
Anaxagoras said:
Spain would not be communist if the Republicans won the civil war.Frances said:
Even without taking into account that the communists only gain more influence if the war lasts longer, but the longer the war lasts the less likely a Republican victory is, so...
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By the way, a little weird fact that is never brought up, is that both Hitler and Mussolini came to speak ill of the side they supported in the war. Hitler said that it was a "Jesuit" regime, and that in hindsight he'd 'rather have the reds keep on killing priests' or something similar. Mussolini said that Franco lacked 'fighting spirit', unlike 'the reds'. I think any invasion of Spain comes down to 1) if Spain clearly supports Britain and France in the Phony War (but why should it) or 2) if Hitler decides to play the Mediterranean strategy instead of going after Russia (but why does he do that), and is no more set in stone a priori than a invasion of Greece, Yugoslavia or Turkey (yes, I'm aware that the first two happened. But they happened for a reason).
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I could see Spain becoming sort of like Switzerland, Hitler won't like them, but can't really invade them. You can't really Blitzkrieg into Spain because the Pyrenees would cause some problems, and I would think being the only Allied nation on Continential Europe would insure support from Britain and the US.
Portugal was a right-wing dictatorship, but Salazar disliked Hitler, and Portugal and the UK have a military pact going back centuries. No way Portugal gets involved.
Exactly my thought, although the Republic government didn't want to be involved in the war (I doubt, in many cases the Republic was never very pragmatic but very idealistic), this would force them to do so.
I remember a pseudo-documentary in a spanish channel that plot the victory of the Republic, in this documentary Franco is exiled in Germany and Hitler launch an attack against Spain, and conquer a big piece of it. The "documentary" shows images of Hitler near the Cybele Fountain (an iconic marble fountain in Madrid), how the Allies managed to reconquer the peninsula with the help of the remains of the spanish army and the battle on Gibraltal (is an allied base ather all).
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I think Hitler invading Spain is utterly ridiculous. He couldn't from Vichy French territory, plus he would extend the Atlantic wall by 2000 kilometers. It would mean a much earlier end of the Third Reich.
They will remain neutral, even if a Communist regim will take power. Spain is in chaos, economic and military in shambles. No way they pose a treath for the Germans. no way they would considder it a threat.
Its not likely the Allies will use Spain to attack the Axis from the Pyrenees. They can't possibly start an effective invasion from those mountains.
Next to that, Hitler invading would require him to attack Gibraltar, a place the British are not likely to give up easily. Nor allow the Axis to hold.
They will remain neutral, even if a Communist regim will take power. Spain is in chaos, economic and military in shambles. No way they pose a treath for the Germans. no way they would considder it a threat.
Its not likely the Allies will use Spain to attack the Axis from the Pyrenees. They can't possibly start an effective invasion from those mountains.
Next to that, Hitler invading would require him to attack Gibraltar, a place the British are not likely to give up easily. Nor allow the Axis to hold.
I think the most likely scenario would be for them not to enter the war actually. Let's look at when it could happen:
1) From the beginning: it's not like the Republic was that great friends with Britain and France, their Soviet patron had just made a deal with the Germans, and even if they wanted to it's not like Spain has a lot of power projection capability. So why declare war? Seems unlikely.
2) After the fall of France: Even worse of a time from the Spanish perspective, now they're much more vulnerable to the Germans. At this point the Germans could invade if they wanted to, but why bother? It would be expensive and difficult and accomplish nothing.
3) After the Soviets enter the war: Given all the help they got from the Soviets it's imaginable that the Republic could get involved to help them out, but I doubt it. The risk of being conquered by Germany is just too high compared to the reward of slightly improving Soviet odds of victory. Germany could invade preemptively to ward of the possibility of Spanish entry, but that doesn't seem likely unless they are pretty sure the Spanish were preparing to get involved, which as I said is not likely.
4) When things are going to shit for the Nazis: If they enter at all, I'd say this is by far the most likely time. Once there are Allied troops in North Africa and Italy, there is not much risk to Spain from the Germans. If the Americans and Russians sweetened the deal sufficiently they might allow an allied invasion force to invade France from Spain. Not sure what the logistics of this would be like compared to D-Day. If it would be a lot better than a cross channel invasion then Spain may actually be likely to enter, if it wouldn't be preferable less pressure would be brought to bear and they'd probably stay out, or else enter in the truly final days just for brownie points.
So actually writing this out has improved my estimation of the odds that Spain would enter the war, but I think they almost certainly wouldn't until close to the end.
1) From the beginning: it's not like the Republic was that great friends with Britain and France, their Soviet patron had just made a deal with the Germans, and even if they wanted to it's not like Spain has a lot of power projection capability. So why declare war? Seems unlikely.
2) After the fall of France: Even worse of a time from the Spanish perspective, now they're much more vulnerable to the Germans. At this point the Germans could invade if they wanted to, but why bother? It would be expensive and difficult and accomplish nothing.
3) After the Soviets enter the war: Given all the help they got from the Soviets it's imaginable that the Republic could get involved to help them out, but I doubt it. The risk of being conquered by Germany is just too high compared to the reward of slightly improving Soviet odds of victory. Germany could invade preemptively to ward of the possibility of Spanish entry, but that doesn't seem likely unless they are pretty sure the Spanish were preparing to get involved, which as I said is not likely.
4) When things are going to shit for the Nazis: If they enter at all, I'd say this is by far the most likely time. Once there are Allied troops in North Africa and Italy, there is not much risk to Spain from the Germans. If the Americans and Russians sweetened the deal sufficiently they might allow an allied invasion force to invade France from Spain. Not sure what the logistics of this would be like compared to D-Day. If it would be a lot better than a cross channel invasion then Spain may actually be likely to enter, if it wouldn't be preferable less pressure would be brought to bear and they'd probably stay out, or else enter in the truly final days just for brownie points.
So actually writing this out has improved my estimation of the odds that Spain would enter the war, but I think they almost certainly wouldn't until close to the end.
I said that it would be neutral. Battered by the civil war, they have a country to rebuild. They could'nt afford a war. And regarding the "immense" soviet help (comparing to the german and italian one), if the republic win, they surely wont feel the need to help russia.