If the Spanish failed to take down the Inca, would they bother with southern cone?

For most practical purposes, except for the matters of the foreign policy, Portugal remained an independent state (in other words, the colonies and trade arrangements were Portuguese, not Spanish) and Dutch-Portuguese War of 1601–1661 overlapped with Portuguese Restoration War of 1640 - 1668 (John, 8th Duke of Braganzawas acclaimed as King John IV of Portugal on December 1st, 1640) fought against Spain. Aka, there was no help from Spain after 1640 by a simple reason of it being at war with Portugal.

I other words, for most practical purposes, except those that really matter, because it was enough to sour the Portuguese-Dutch relations enough to both countries entering a war.

Now, what could Spain do while Portugal was still a part of the union? Very little: It did not have too much in the terms of a navy (unlike Portugal and the Dutch Republic)

True, in fact, it is so true that it is exactly why I think that ITTL Spain is not going to care about the River Plate, that is the reasoning behind my argument in post #11.

However, they actively participated in recapture of Bahia in 1624 (Portugal provided 22 ships and about 4,000 men, Spain 38 ships, among them 21 galleons, and 8,000 men).

Probably military matters weren't included in most practical purposes...

Now about the losses. When the dust settled Portugal retained most of its colonial empire: they recovered their colonies in Brazil and Angola and the Dutch failed to replace Portuguese in the trade with China. The main Dutch gain was setting a colony in Java (which was formally independent) but Portuguese retained East Timor. So the "huge swats of land" exist mostly in your imagination and whatever was taken was not taken from the King of Spain: the Dutch made peace with Portugal (1661) which, just like the Dutch, was at war with Spain.

The King of Spain was the King of Portugal when Portugal lost huge swats of land in Brazil, Africa and elsewhere, after Portugal became independent again they reconquered it without Spanish help, in fact despite Spanish hostility, that is why "the Spanish King lost huge swats of land to the Dutch".
 
I other words, for most practical purposes, except those that really matter, because it was enough to sour the Portuguese-Dutch relations enough to both countries entering a war.

The Dutch-Portuguese competition was a process of its own military part of which continued even when both countries had been fighting against Spain and did not stop for a couple of years after the Netherlands and Portugal signed a peace treaty.

Probably military matters weren't included in most practical purposes...

You should figure out what exactly you are unhappy about: absence of the Spanish help or its existence. BTW, existence of the help does not support what seems to be your claim about Portugal being a part of Spain: until 1640 the Dutch had been supported by England which did not make one of them a part of another.

The King of Spain was the King of Portugal when Portugal lost huge swats of land in Brazil, Africa and elsewhere, after Portugal became independent again they reconquered it without Spanish help, in fact despite Spanish hostility, that is why "the Spanish King lost huge swats of land to the Dutch".

It is probably waste of my time but I'll try it again: Spain and Portugal had been in a personal union which means that Portugal (and its colonial empire) was separate from Spain (and its colonial empire) in the terms of administration, military issues and economics (Portuguese colonies were Portuguese, not Spanish). This does not exclude military help, as was the case in 1625, but in general the Portuguese had been fighting their own war. Nothing unique there.

Portuguese kept losing the territories after 1640 so it was not like they were losing as a part of the union and reconquered after the revolution.

The Dutch captured São Luís in 1641 after Portugal revolution.

Portuguese Gold Coast had been lost to the Dutch in 1642 so King of Spain was quite irrelevant as a defender of the territory.

The Dutch captured Luanda in 1641 after Portugal revolution.
 
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I think we need to consider what the tawatinsuyu would do, if it successfully repulsed the spanish invasion and was confronted with the possibility of them gaining a strong foothold nearby.

I don't think they could resist for long. Spain has control of the sea, and there are no other powers they could conceivably ally with. However, there is another way to the same end. What if the Empire had not arisen in the first place? Pizarro expolres and finds nothing of interest, just a few scattered fishing villages. No readymade labour force and no rumours of Cerro Rico. How would that affect further developments?
 
I don't think they could resist for long. Spain has control of the sea, and there are no other powers they could conceivably ally with. However, there is another way to the same end. What if the Empire had not arisen in the first place? Pizarro expolres and finds nothing of interest, just a few scattered fishing villages. No readymade labour force and no rumours of Cerro Rico. How would that affect further developments?
They will try conquest Anyway, and will be more difficult without the Centralized Tawatinsuyu, Peru was heavily populated Before the born of the Inca Empire, most of the population was in the Mountain valleys and the Peruvian Altiplano, they will found small fishing villages, that will speak about big and rich cities up in the mountain, and all these Cities will be more or less independent City-states, with a strong marital culture to defend their independence against other city-states, they will be doomed anyway because the European sickness, but is a much more difficult position fight and conquest every valley and Altiplano, than just fight one battle, capture one person and take control of one city, that was the case in the original Inca conquest(and posterior rebellions).
Stil lthe place will be fabulous rich, in Peru-Ecuador-Chilean North, the Gold is more abundant than the Iron,
 
I don't think they could resist for long. Spain has control of the sea, and there are no other powers they could conceivably ally with. However, there is another way to the same end. What if the Empire had not arisen in the first place? Pizarro expolres and finds nothing of interest, just a few scattered fishing villages. No readymade labour force and no rumours of Cerro Rico. How would that affect further developments?
Control of the sea doesn't really matter to the inca. They had little foreign trade in the first place, and there were actually some other native groups they would make decent allies, like the muisca confederacy who had also discovered metalworking.
And, of course, they could make a detente with the mapuche, who historically gave the spanish hell in a guerilla war lasting, what, centuries?
and, adding onto that, the mapuche were no slouches in convenital warfare either, as the maule shows.
 
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