If the SNP Declared Independence in 2011

After winning a majority in the Scottish elections of May 2011, the new SNP government unilaterally declares Scotland's independence from Britain. What happens next?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The provisions of the legislation which created the Scottish Parliament specifically state that constitutional issues remain under the control of Westminster. So the Scottish Parliament has no legal authority to unilaterally declare independence.
 
Echoes of Rhodesian sanctions in the 1970s, or Crimea more recently. Some jobs in the North of England rebuilding a Roman wall...
 
Westminster's designated spokesman, Alfie Solomons, informs Holyrood: "no, fuck off. Fucking ridiculous."

More seriously, Westminster would explicitly refuse to recognise it on grounds that they can't prove a majority of Scotland backs it (and not just, say, SNP health policies). Labour, Lib Dem, and Conservatives in Scotland all team up and decry it, and any councils they run are going to refuse to cooperate. Northern Ireland gets ugly indeed, with Sinn Fein over a barrell re what they can say about this and the unionists terrified. Brussells will make it clear they don't recognise Scotland's independence without a vote and it can't come in, both to support the UK and to placate other member-states that have secessionists.

And probably a few riots and other assorted violence across the UK.

The markets also shit themselves.

In the end, Adrian Salmond is forced to resign as the bulk of SNP MSPs don't really have the stomach for all this. Salmond may or may not be tried for treason, depending on which Cameron thinks is best for settling the issue.
 
The provisions of the legislation which created the Scottish Parliament specifically state that constitutional issues remain under the control of Westminster. So the Scottish Parliament has no legal authority to unilaterally declare independence.

Aye, this. Also in 2011 the polling for independence was only around 30%, or lower.

There's probably far easier PODs to get Scottish independence. Just have some major gaffes made or scandals come out during the referendum, fix some of the SNP's more timid policies (currency union) or have some POD that raises oil prices a great deal.
 
I actually think something like this is doable with a couple of different PoDs. I believe that the SNP earlier in its history had a divide between 'gradualists' who thought wanted a referendum before declaring independence, and 'fundamentalists' who thought winning a majority of votes in Scotland would be enough. If the fundamentalist school of thought won out, rather than the gradualist as in OTL, then maybe a SNP government in Holyrood would do something like that after winning a majority of votes.

The obvious difficulties are that the SNP and other independence parties didnt win a majority of votes in 2011,just a majority in the Scottish Parliament, and that total would probably be even lower as a significant number of there voters back then didnt want independence, but thought they would do a good job in fighting for Scottish interests within the UK and so voted for them.

Another way to do it would be for David Cameron to deny them a referendum, maybe if the polls were tighter and it looked less winnable than it originally did for remain he wouldnt risk it. In that situation the SNP might declare independence unilaterally, or they could essentially do what the Catalan separatists did and wait till the next election, form a pact with the other independence parties (in this case just the Greens) and turn it into a referendum on independence. If the result was a 'Yes' then they move in the direction of creating parallel institutions with a view to declaring independence unilaterally in a few years time. I guess we will have to follow Catalonia to see what might be a likely scenario after that. Maybe the central government arrests the Scottish government and suspends the Scottish Parliament, and maybe that could trigger some kind of insurgency amongst the more militant nationalists elements, similar to what happened in Northern Ireland, but certainly not a mass rebellion.
 
The first obvious difficulty is that your hypothetical fundamentalist SNP is necessarily going to be a very different beast from OTL's SNP. The SNP only got so far IOTL because they managed to attract voters who didn't support independence, and an SNP that's dominated by hardliners is obviously going to find that much more difficult. It may not even get into government, let alone win a majority.
 
There would be various 'checkpoints', beginning with the people in the room with Salmond when he suggests the idea, continuing on through the Scottish Parliament and the media, then of course Westminster, probably some level of EU involvement and finally, one supposes, the United Nations. The first one failing to cancel this plan would be very unlikely, for every single one of them to go along with it is simply ASB.

So you either end up with Salmond being laughed at and quickly saying 'yes, yes, of course, I was having you all on' then moving on with a slight redness in his cheeks, or Anders Fogh-Rasmussen setting up a High Commission in Aberdeen once the trials begin. Or something in between.
 
After winning a majority in the Scottish elections of May 2011, the new SNP government unilaterally declares Scotland's independence from Britain. What happens next?

The ASBs sit back with their beers and pizzas and observe what happens subsequently, of course.
 
This might have a chance of succeeding if Queen Elizabeth is allowed to stay on as Queen of Scotland, turning Scotland into a Commonwealth Realm.
 
This might have a chance of succeeding if Queen Elizabeth is allowed to stay on as Queen of Scotland, turning Scotland into a Commonwealth Realm.

That would be about as relevant as the CSA saying they would be happy to keep George Washington on their money, sorry.
 
The Commonwealth Realm might be the only way this good work however this would require some major ASB influence. However if we ignore the all the ASB to make it all work out for Salmond, I would be more then happy to start rebuilding the wall.

Guess it is time to make Britannia great again!
 
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