If the Republicans Win in 1948 and 1952, Does JFK Run in '56?

Suppose that, as expected, Dewey had won the White House in 1948 and he goes on to be re-elected in 1952. Assuming that butterflies don't prevent JFK's election to the Senate, does he run for President in 1956?
 
Does he run? Very likely, yes. Unless Dewey had a fantastic time in office, and his heir apparent was seen as unbeatable, I don't see why JFK wouldn't run. But I think more than likely he wouldn't get the nomination, in no small part due to how young he'd be. Only 39 at the time, he'd come across as even more boyish than he did IOTL. And while he'd still have a decent amount of experience, there'd probably be others with more experience who'd also be more palatable to southern Democrats. Funny enough, I could see an LBJ-JFK ticket here.
 
I know the OP says " Assuming that butterflies don't prevent JFK's election to the Senate" but I rather think this will prevent JFK's election to the Senate. One reason Lodge was so vulnerable in MA in 1952 is that the Taftites hated him for his role in helping Ike defeat their hero for the 1952 presidential nomination. If like most incumbents Dewey is renominated without much opposition, the GOP will unite behind Lodge. And if Dewey is popular enough to be re-elected, Dewey will probably carry MA as well (MA was not much more Democratic than the nation as a whole in the 1952 presidential election in OTL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_United_States_presidential_election)
 
I know the OP says " Assuming that butterflies don't prevent JFK's election to the Senate" but I rather think this will prevent JFK's election to the Senate. One reason Lodge was so vulnerable in MA in 1952 is that the Taftites hated him for his role in helping Ike defeat their hero for the 1952 presidential nomination. If like most incumbents Dewey is renominated without much opposition, the GOP will unite behind Lodge. And if Dewey is popular enough to be re-elected, Dewey will probably carry MA as well (MA was not much more Democratic than the nation as a whole in the 1952 presidential election in OTL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_United_States_presidential_election)

That's possible, but I don't think it's certain. The conflict between moderates and conservatives predated 1952 - in fact Dewey and Taft had a blood feud that made them bitter enemies. I expect there'd be much conflict between President Dewey and Senator Taft, and Senator Lodge would support his fellow moderate Dewey on key issues over the opposition of the conservative Taft. In that case, Taftites would still hate Lodge, and many would prefer Kennedy to win in order to get rid of him.

That said, if Kennedy loses to Lodge he doesn't run in 1956. In the event of a narrow Senate loss, he might for Governor in 1954. That would set him up for a run in 1960, not 1956.
 
I hope not.

I hope we’d get an older, more seasoned JFK maybe in ‘64 or ‘68.

Would his health be up to a 1968 run? By that I don't mean he'd be confined to bed but I can see '68 JFK as having faced some significant health scares and it would have been increasingly difficult keeping those from the public.

Regarding the 1956 run I can see him doing pretty well in the primaries but ultimately passed over. He'd be courted as a VP though and if not would be young enough to try again in 1960 or 64, depending on who controls the White House.
 
Would his health be up to a 1968 run? By that I don't mean he'd be confined to bed but I can see '68 JFK as having faced some significant health scares and it would have been increasingly difficult keeping those from the public.

Regarding the 1956 run I can see him doing pretty well in the primaries but ultimately passed over. He'd be courted as a VP though and if not would be young enough to try again in 1960 or 64, depending on who controls the White House.

I agree that 1968 is probably too late. At the same time, 1956 is too early. Vice-President Warren has a strong chance of winning on peace and prosperity. JFK barely beat Nixon in 1960, when the economy was in recession and the US was embarrassed by the U-2 incident. If nominated against Warren, Kennedy would lose. Even then, in 1956 JFK was barely known outside of Massachusetts and wasn't even 40. Kennedy is more likely to support Harriman for the nomination and angle for VP at the convention than run for President outright.
 
That's possible, but I don't think it's certain. The conflict between moderates and conservatives predated 1952 - in fact Dewey and Taft had a blood feud that made them bitter enemies. I expect there'd be much conflict between President Dewey and Senator Taft, and Senator Lodge would support his fellow moderate Dewey on key issues over the opposition of the conservative Taft. In that case, Taftites would still hate Lodge, and many would prefer Kennedy to win in order to get rid of him.

Taft was a party loyalist, though. He tried to get along with Ike after the latter was elected--for example, backing Charles Bohlen's appointment as Ambassador to the USSR against McCarthy's objections. I think he would try to maintain at least a facade of unity with Dewey in 1952 and hope his own hour would come in 1956. This would involve supporting Lodge for re-election in 1952.
 
I agree that his health issues make for an interesting story in their own right — chronic back pain, and Addison’s disease, and probably being over-medicated.

Even in 1960, Kennedy's health threatened to be a major issue. In 1956 this could be an even bigger threat to a Presidential campaign. Kennedy had only recently recovered from back surgery - during this time he (and Ted Sorensen) wrote Profiles in Courage while JFK was in the hospital. In 1956, the book hadn't yet won the Pulitzer and questions about Kennedy's health, age, and experience would likely play a larger role in a presidential campaign. 1960 was probably the best possible year for JFK to run for President - he was the right age and the Democrats had the momentum.

Taft was a party loyalist, though. He tried to get along with Ike after the latter was elected--for example, backing Charles Bohlen's appointment as Ambassador to the USSR against McCarthy's objections. I think he would try to maintain at least a facade of unity with Dewey in 1952 and hope his own hour would come in 1956. This would involve supporting Lodge for re-election in 1952.

Taft might give Lodge his nominal support, but that wouldn't stop conservatives who are unhappy with Lodge from voting for Kennedy. And even if Taft were to give Lodge his full support for re-election, given that Massachusetts was a center of liberal internationalism in this time Taft's support might hurt Lodge more than help him. The one Republican who could make a difference for Lodge is Joe McCarthy, who wouldn't campaign against JFK because of his friendship with the Kennedy family. One final point I'd like to make here is that even if everything goes right for Dewey in his first term, he's not likely to win by as large a margin as Eisenhower and this would help the Democrats down ballot. Lodge mostly took Kennedy for granted while JFK waged an aggressive campaign that visited every city/town in MA and exploited the divides in the GOP to produce an upset victory. IMO JFK is about as likely to beat Lodge as in OTL, even if he wins by a smaller margin.
 
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