If the Nazis won would they have been able to accomplish Generalplan Ost?

If the Nazis won would they have been able to accomplish Generalplan Ost?

  • Yes

    Votes: 87 49.7%
  • No it would have been too difficult

    Votes: 34 19.4%
  • They abandon it before completion

    Votes: 54 30.9%

  • Total voters
    175
  • Poll closed .
They would have been able to carry out a good portion of the killing and expelling part, but far less of the Lebensraum dream than projected. Russia is big, and partisans who survive in remote pockets (and with over half of the original population gone, there would A LOT of these "remote pockets") would be an endless bane on the Nazis' ability to pacify and the Germans' desire to actually live in the place. Assuming the scenario puts the eastern limit of the Greater Reich at the Ural mountains, you're going to have a low-tech but persistent military industry based deep in Siberia funneling an endless and unstoppable trickle of weapons to the fighters out in the west.

The Nazis were completely evil and also insane in their plans, and it would come to bite them in the butt even if they "won."
 
In OTL, Felix Frankfurter, a prominent Jew and Supreme Court justice, outright said "I don't believe him" regarding a man who had escaped both the Warsaw Ghetto and a sorting camp for Belzec. FDR himself asked the same man more about horses in Poland than Jews.

What I mean is, WAllies response to atrocities was basically "don't care" to "hey, stop that" until the war was over. I don't see any significant difference with a surviving Reich.

I think it was more that the Holocaust was so over the top the truth was not believed .
 
At some point, the Nazi leadership will probably realize they don't have even close to the projected number of German colonists available. Apparently they might not even have enough to colonize the Polish and Czech lands. Also, there will be resistance in occupied territories. A lot of it.

However, it's probably too optimistic to hope this would alter their genocidal plans in any major way.

I wonder if the number of ethnic Russians who ended up in the Baltics after the war might be a useful starting point?
 
At some point, the Nazi leadership will probably realize they don't have even close to the projected number of German colonists available. Apparently they might not even have enough to colonize the Polish and Czech lands. Also, there will be resistance in occupied territories. A lot of it.

However, it's probably too optimistic to hope this would alter their genocidal plans in any major way.
I could see the Germans "Aryanizing" large numbers to achieve the colonists they need to populate the east.
 
They would have been able to carry out a good portion of the killing and expelling part, but far less of the Lebensraum dream than projected. Russia is big, and partisans who survive in remote pockets (and with over half of the original population gone, there would A LOT of these "remote pockets") would be an endless bane on the Nazis' ability to pacify and the Germans' desire to actually live in the place. Assuming the scenario puts the eastern limit of the Greater Reich at the Ural mountains, you're going to have a low-tech but persistent military industry based deep in Siberia funneling an endless and unstoppable trickle of weapons to the fighters out in the west.

The Nazis were completely evil and also insane in their plans, and it would come to bite them in the butt even if they "won."
that's one of the first things I was wondering about when I read the OP... just how much power can Germany inflict on Russia east of the Urals? I wonder if plans for wide scale extermination might not give way to 'hell, just shovel everyone we don't like out there past the Urals"....
 
Well, a lot of Soviets would emigrate to Siberia by themselves, possibly many millions in a flood that makes the Trail of Tears look more like a minor creek. The Germans can't do much to the Soviets behind the Urals. CalBear's scenario has Germany force a humiliating peace on them, but I doubt that's realistic. More likely they'll continue a resistance similar to that of the Nationalist Chinese in the face of the Japanese invasion: no way to beat the Germans out of Russia, but holding on.
 

RousseauX

Donor
At some point, the Nazi leadership will probably realize they don't have even close to the projected number of German colonists available. Apparently they might not even have enough to colonize the Polish and Czech lands. Also, there will be resistance in occupied territories. A lot of it.

However, it's probably too optimistic to hope this would alter their genocidal plans in any major way.
A Nazi victory is pretty much self-defeating for any German colonization effort, why abandon the highest standard of living in Europe if you are living in Berlin or Munich for some burnt out cottages in Crimean?
 
A Nazi victory is pretty much self-defeating for any German colonization effort, why abandon the highest standard of living in Europe if you are living in Berlin or Munich for some burnt out cottages in Crimean?

Exactly, and that's why Post-war Europe will turn out like Syria: A German/Alawite enclave that's somewhat well-off, but the rest of Europe/Syria absolutely hate them. Come the collapse, there's going to be warlord states for decades to come.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I could see the Germans "Aryanizing" large numbers to achieve the colonists they need to populate the east.
The problem with this is that if you are a "Aryan" Pole you won't want to go colonize the denipier much more than if you are a German

the post-war economy is going to be overwhelmingly consist of urbanization and industrialization: technology means that real wages in urban areas is going to be much higher than whatever plot of land in the ex-ussr farming is going to give you. The incoming green revolution and mechanization of agriculture both reduces to viability of 1 mil square mile of peasant farmers and the need for farm laborers (see the us where % of population involved in agriculture plummeted post -WWII). The net result is in reality people will be moving into Warsaw (if it still exists), Prague and Berlin rather than the field where Leningrad used to be.
 
The problem with this is that if you are a "Aryan" Pole you won't want to go colonize the denipier much more than if you are a German

the post-war economy is going to be overwhelmingly consist of urbanization and industrialization: technology means that real wages in urban areas is going to be much higher than whatever plot of land in the ex-ussr farming is going to give you. The incoming green revolution and mechanization of agriculture both reduces to viability of 1 mil square mile of peasant farmers and the need for farm laborers (see the us where % of population involved in agriculture plummeted post -WWII). The net result is in reality people will be moving into Warsaw (if it still exists), Prague and Berlin rather than the field where Leningrad used to be.

Nazi Ideology has a tendency to ignore reality.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Nazi Ideology has a tendency to ignore reality.
yeah but the average guy on the street isn't gonna care all that much about massive eastern farmland for the reich, he's gonna want to get paid better and you don't do that by emulating 19th century style farming in the steppes somewhere
 
yeah but the average guy on the street isn't gonna care all that much about massive eastern farmland for the reich, he's gonna want to get paid better and you don't do that by emulating 19th century style farming in the steppes somewhere

The problem is, the Nazis would try and coerce people into heading to the East, kicking and screaming if necessary.
 

RousseauX

Donor
The problem is, the Nazis would try and coerce people into heading to the East, kicking and screaming if necessary.
I think even the Nazis would be squirmish about rounding up fellow Aryans and putting them on the steppes, and if they do there's severe economic consequences, not to mention causing resistance among the Nazi party's core constituencies. You are forcing people to go somewhere and do a job that's significantly less productive than an urban factory job in Germany itself, this drives down income per capita and frankly makes Nazi Europe heading towards becoming mega-North Korea.
 
I think even the Nazis would be squirmish about rounding up fellow Aryans and putting them on the steppes, and if they do there's severe economic consequences, not to mention causing resistance among the Nazi party's core constituencies. You are forcing people to go somewhere and do a job that's significantly less productive than an urban factory job in Germany itself, this drives down income per capita and frankly makes Nazi Europe heading towards becoming mega-North Korea.

This also related to another problem: Lack of discipline in the German military. If there's a continent wide Syria/Mexico on the east, and it persists for decades, morale is going to tank, and growing disgust at atrocities (especially when a generation of soldiers who didn't know the Great Depression are in service) could lead to Fragging becoming a thing on the Ostfront. Even a totalitarian state is going to find it difficult to put a good spin on German youth coming home draped in a swastika for no clear purpose.
 

Deleted member 1487

This also related to another problem: Lack of discipline in the German military. If there's a continent wide Syria/Mexico on the east, and it persists for decades, morale is going to tank, and growing disgust at atrocities (especially when a generation of soldiers who didn't know the Great Depression are in service) could lead to Fragging becoming a thing on the Ostfront. Even a totalitarian state is going to find it difficult to put a good spin on German youth coming home draped in a swastika for no clear purpose.
Its extremely debateable what a generation of German boys raised under Nazism would do in the field. Fragging isn't likely one of them
 
I would say yes.

Some elements might not reach the level they desired (Lake Moscow seems to be a bit of a stretch), but the gradual, continuos eradication of the Jewish and Roma people of Europe, the winnowing of the Slavic peoples through a combination of overwork, disease, and starvation until the remaining individuals are an illiterate underclass of serfs/slaves.

The obstacle would not be the sheer insanity or scope of the thing, strange as that sounds. The difficulty would be with the various Reich Administrators, who will want to retain skilled personnel even if they are in one of the "special handling" groups if they believe that will ease their administration of an area (Otto Wacher is a good example of this, just as racist, twice as good at manipulating the population). In the medium term, however, the SS would have achieved its goals.

"The sanity of the plan is of no consequence..."
 
Its extremely debateable what a generation of German boys raised under Nazism would do in the field. Fragging isn't likely one of them

Einsatzgruppen (Hardcore Nazis) had serious issues with alcoholism, drug abuse and suicide, to the point that the OKW considered it endemic.
 
There are numerous myths being repeated about Generalplan Ost here. In fact, Tooze in Wages of Destruction defends it, saying on pages 469-70

"(as) Meyer... put it in a programmatic article: 'The land folk of tomorrow will be a different people from that of yesterday... For our rural population the dawning of this new age means a fundamental change of character... The choice between traditional or progressive, primitive or modern, can only be resolved in favour of a healthy, communally conscious idea of progress and performance. This implies a clear decision in favour of struggle as opposed to those... who see the salvation of the peasantry in the protection of a nature reserve. There can be no return to the 'good old days.' It is therefore best to give up complaining about the fact that the 'old peasantry' is gone and to affirm the new peasantry of the Third Reich and to fight for it.' The vision that inspired the German colonial project in the East had more in common with the American ideology of the frontier than it did with the Middle Ages. In the autumn of 1941 Hitler returned repeatedly to the American example in discussing Germany's future in the East. The Volga, he declared, would be Germany's Mississippi... The Generalplan Ost envisioned, not a return to the past, but a new and expansive phase of German economic development... Nor were the agronomists working... under any illusion about the standard of living that could be expected in a society consisting entirely of peasant farmers. Instead, Meyer's ideal was the population structure of Bavaria or Hanover, which in the 1930s sustained an uncluttered balance of agriculture, industry, and services. The Generalplan projected an agricultural share of the workforce of no more than one-third..."

On page 472 "But the agrarian planners did not merely intend to seize land and redistribute population... An enormous flow of German capital would have to follow the German settlers... The farms would need to be well-equipped with livestock and machinery. But most important of all was the need to improve the transport infrastructure. Modern agriculture could not prosper without links to the towns and cities... Half a million marks was to be sunk into every square kilometer of Germany's vast new Eastern empire... Here too there is no trace of backward-looking nostalgia. On the plans... land remediation and agriculture would claim only 36 percent of Germany's investment... The rest was earmarked for investments in transport infrastructure, industry, and urban settlement. And this was only the state-directed element... Huge sums were expected to flow from private industry..."

In short, the blithe predictions of failure in this thread are essentially wishful thinking based on an incorrect view of the nature of the settlement plans and likely a desire to believe that a cold war with a victorious Germany would have been as easy for the Wallies as the historical one with the USSR. As for finding enough settlers, the book gives on pages 468-69 a number of 10 million over a 20-30 year period. I don't see what's so impossible about such a number given the large number of construction jobs GP Ost would have necessitated and the fact much of the settled area was extremely good farmland. That said, I do think the plans would probably change to some extent after Hitler's death, (which was always going to be soon given the toxins being administrated to him by Morell) depending on who took over afterwards.
 
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