By the time of a potential flashpoint, likely the 40s, at least one of the three would have something on the drawing boards especially since war with the Soviets would make it a necessity. There were light bombers in the 30s, and engines were developing fairly quickly to make medium and heavy bombers possible. I am of the opinion by the time of TTLs WWII, there would be bombers of some sort that would develop for this particular war. The Germans knowing the designs and locations of said power plants remain a GREAT advantage as the Soviets massed everything when it came to power generation and industry.
If The Nazis don’t come into power, is a Second World War still likely?
- Thread starter Mechadogzilla
- Start date
I never said it would be a quick victory, but we're seeing a Soviet military whose officer corps is gutted , with no lend lease, and a possible alliance with the Japanese in the East. You have the British perfectly poised to hit Baku if not take it from the south, a naval force able to bombard the Soviets from the Baltic and Black Seas, and a population willing to revolts which the Allies will embrace rather than turn by brutal racist ideology. The Soviets may survive East of the Urals, but they aren't winning. Without aid the mobility lend lease gave them is gone, not to mention the lack of oil once again due to the vulnerability of Baku. I also see Poland joining in on this which makes the threat to Ukraine, and Soviet food, a reality. It won't be in a year, but it will be brutal for the Soviets past that. Having to rebuild their officer corps with limited mobility and no air cover...yeah, good luck.
A BIG difference is that the West isn't going to commit genocide against the Slavs. A lot of Ukrainians would join , maybe a majority, particularly in the West Ukraine. A good part of the Caucuses would likely join in, outside of Georgia.
Also the Wallies wouldn't try to exterminate them. If the US joins in the US Army Corps of Engineers will re-gauge Soviet railroads MUCH quicker than the Germans.
I’m confused. Is this war happening IATL mid/late-40s or winter of 1941/42? Because if it’s the former, the Soviet officer corps would have been rebuilt and the undamaged Soviet industry would be more then enough to outfit it with more then even what lend-lease provided. And why have the west undertaken the enormous, expensive, and unpopular arms build-up needed to attack the USSR anyways?
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Agreed. My point wasn't a Western conspiracy to topple Stalin, it was more of deciding to actually do ATL what they considered OTL such as bombing Soviet oil facilities after the Soviets invaded Finland. The Western powers very well might have some of the attitudes I have seen on this thread and get themselves into a long war they aren't ready for.
Deleted member 94680
What chance this Wehrmacht led Germany in an anti-communist alliance gets access to British bomber designs to make up for deficiencies of their own? Or maybe a decent heavy aircraft aero engine
What prewar British bomber design would be worthwhile, even if such a thing was possible?
Hammerbolt
Donor
I believe WWII was caused by a combination of multiple factors in Germany, not teast of which the Treaty of Versailles; Hitler & Co were just the ones that took advantage of it. Many people of the time thought the way the war ended, and conditions of the treaty, would lead to another. H. G. Wells wrote "The Shape of Things to Come" in 1933, showing a new war starting in 1940, starting with an attack on Poland because of Danzig.
And the german armed forces had been exploring, testing and training new concepts and weapons, hiding from the treaty as much as possible, long before Hitler came to power. He didn't just snap his fingers in 1933 and made things happen, he acelerated them.
And the german armed forces had been exploring, testing and training new concepts and weapons, hiding from the treaty as much as possible, long before Hitler came to power. He didn't just snap his fingers in 1933 and made things happen, he acelerated them.
It would probably start later, the German economy probably would be stronger as the headlong rush to armaments would probably be slower and there might be more realistic goals such as simply getting back all it lost in WW1.
It sounds like Stalin decided to strike at some point in the 40s, unknown year, to make border corrections that went hot.
The Japanese, sorry for not specific. With out a Nazi situation for the Wallies, i don't think the Japanese will go with the southern approach, and with siberia lightly populated and the trans Siberian railroad easily cut near outer Manchuria, a northern approach will look more realistic to them as the USSR still had keep a strong force in their polish border.
As a bonus for them, if they go north there is a chance the US ignores what they are doing in China.
The Soviet Union in the late-30s possessed 4 times the Japanese warmaking capacity and while the west might not object to them hauling off to attack the USSR, they won't lift a finger to assist them either. Whatever early gains (if it obtains any early gains) the Japanese might make will be transitory and ruthlessly crushed as the Soviet Union mobilizes and marshals it's resources eastward. Japanese dominance of the sea will let them avoid any sort of occupation, but their continental aspirations will be at an end.
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If the IJA goes North, they will have their hands full to do much of anything in China beyond holding on
And iotl, they still sucker punch the US. The thing is they backed themselves to a war, they either attack the west with a southern approach or the ussr with a northern one. Without a Nazi Germany, the USSR will be a more realistic opponent for a quick war with limited goals (nothern sakhalin and outer manchuria). While the ussr had 4 times the war making potential compare to Tokyo, can they move those fast enough with enough quantity before the Japanese entrenched and harden their defense? It can be another Russo - Japanese war to the generals in Tokyo
I’m not sure about the West winning. How would we define victory here?