If The Nazis don’t come into power, is a Second World War still likely?

[Inferus]

The Communists aren't taking Germany. Hindenburg won't stand for it legally (that man will NEVER appoint a Communist Chancellor) and the military won't allow it by force.

Perhaps Hindenburg nominates Carl Friedrich Goerdeler and he accepts (removing von Papen); just remove the DNVP's harsh attack on Hindenburg. Bruning liked him, even suggested him to Hindenburg and Schleicher likewise endorsed him to a point. He believed in autocracy, was an economic realist, and also desired the return of Polish territory (literally enraged when Hitler signed a non-aggression pact with the Poles). He'll reign as an "enlightened" dictator, pushing for the return of German territory (appeasement will give him the political capital he needs) while rebuilding the Reich following the Depression. His free market views gains him the corporations and the threat of the Soviets bring rapprochement with the West. The need to build Germany into a bulwark against Bolshevism, coupled with their leading minds and parents not being poached, allows Germany to return to great power status.

Italy struggles economically as it fights to hold and integrate Ethiopia. The eventual discovery of oil in Libya will shore up their economy somewhat (though corruption and mismanagement will squander it). The fascists likely fall with Mussolini, whenever that is, and Ethiopia is gradually let go for Western support.

Japan is going into China. The tide was heading that way and the Kwangtung Army aren't reigning themselves in. Now how far it escalates is in question.

I doubt FDR is running for a third term (hard to defend it) making myriad butterflies as to who follows.

Stalin stays in his borders.

 

[Johnrankins]

I think the Rhineland is virtually certain and the "Polish Corridor" very likely with Anchluss and Sudetenland less likely. The Germans really hated the "Polish Corridor" as it cut off East Prussia.

 

[David Floyd]

Well, if Stalin gets frisky in Finland, or potentially has a go at Poland, you could end up with a Western coalition including Weimar Germany going to war with the Soviet Union. The US probably stays out of this one, resulting in a long bloody war in Europe.

 

[33k7]

Well, if Stalin gets frisky in Finland, or potentially has a go at Poland, you could end up with a Western coalition including Weimar Germany going to war with the Soviet Union. The US probably stays out of this one, resulting in a long bloody war in Europe.

a European coalition to kill the Soviet Union considering they'll be liberators and not mass murderers it will be quite easy

 

[David Floyd]

a European coalition to kill the Soviet Union considering they'll be liberators and not mass murderers it will be quite easy

Easy? Especially with the military of Weimar rather than Nazi Germany? Hardly. Would the West win. Almost certainly, but it's not a cakewalk.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

WWII doesn't happen without Hitler. At least not remotely in the same fashion that it did. Yes, it's likely that there'll be a rise of right wing sentiment in Germany, and a re-militarization of the country, but without Hitler the German leadership won't be nearly so dedicated to starting a war. This is particularly the case since the French and British were willing to make some pretty extreme concessions to Germany in the interests of avoiding another conflict until they were ready. Virtually any other German leader would have taken Munich as a triumph and cashed in at that point, as indeed most in the Nazi Hierarchy and the Wehrmacht leadership wanted. It's not that other German leaders of the day were peacenicks or anything, but none of them were willing to take the gambles Hitler was.

You might get a different war years later, when France, Britain, and Russia have reformed and rebuilt their militaries, and Germany is on the downswing of disappointment after the early bloom of fascist glories has worn off and does something rash that the Anglo-French and/or Soviets now feel strong enough to punish, but by then the odds would be so strongly and obviously against Germany that its unlikely the Wehrmacht would go for it.

 

[33k7]

Easy? Especially with the military of Weimar rather than Nazi Germany? Hardly. Would the West win. Almost certainly, but it's not a cakewalk.

A unified European Coalition against the Soviet Union you'd have a million partisans in the Ukraine fighting against the Soviet Union by the end of the year stalinism and the Communist Party made no allies with the people the only thing that unified them was the Nazis were worse Stalin is dead within a year to year-and-a-half and compared to the death toll in our timeline it is far smaller

 

[Inferus]

Easy? Especially with the military of Weimar rather than Nazi Germany? Hardly. Would the West win. Almost certainly, but it's not a cakewalk.

The Germans built a great deal of Stalin's electrical infrastructure. With the plans and known locations, a decent bombing offensive can cripple their industry.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Say the Weimar Republic is a bit more stable and remains ruled by the SPD or Zentrum another democratic Party. Thus with no Nazi takeover, WWII as we know it can’t happen. But is a major war involving every world power on the scale of WWII still possible in this timeline? Who could it involve, and how could it go?

Stalin is often regarded as having been cautious as far as military action goes, but there was 'Communist International', run from Russia and supposed to work to bring everyone else down from within, as far as I understand it.
Maybe if Communist International goes too far/gets too provocative (assassination of major foreign political figures or destruction of a major piece of foreign infrastructure by agents which can be traced to Communist International?) something anti-Russian starts?

 

[David Floyd]

A unified European Coalition against the Soviet Union you'd have a million partisans in the Ukraine fighting against the Soviet Union by the end of the year stalinism and the Communist Party made no allies with the people the only thing that unified them was the Nazis were worse Stalin is dead within a year to year-and-a-half and compared to the death toll in our timeline it is far smaller

Stalin isn't getting toppled by a revolt in Ukraine, and as for the rest you're just rehashing the "kivk in the door and the rotten edifice will fall" line. In reality, if the OTL Wehrmacht couldn't win a quick victory, the British/French/Weimar militaries won't either.

 

[David Floyd]

The Germans built a great deal of Stalin's electrical infrastructure. With the plans and known locations, a decent bombing offensive can cripple their industry.

Using bombers that OTL were lucky to bomb the right city for the first couple of years?

 

[Inferus]

Using bombers that OTL were lucky to bomb the right city for the first couple of years?

Gotta learn somehow.

 

[David Floyd]

Agreed, but that means a long war, not a quick victory. I'm not saying the West wouldn't learn or wouldn't win - they probably would. It's just gonna be a long war.

 

[marathag]

The western democracies didn't have a reason to develop a nuclear weapon without a Nazi Germany to make them and the USSR while had a reason to had no means to develop it until 1960s.

Why did they have a reason?
in 1937, that had the World's largest Army and Airforce, and had been content to stay withing their borders since Trotsky's misadventures.

There were zero countries threatening the existence of the USSR, the Capitalist powers(led by the USA) had recognized them, and trading and doing technology transfers.

Only Japan had border issues, and that was unlikely to spread beyond those two countries, and given their state of infrastructure, at worst would be a WWI style grind on a broader scale, with neither being able to deliver a knockout blow

You don't need nukes for that.

 

[marathag]

With the plans and known locations, a decent bombing offensive can cripple their industry.

and no plans for a Bomber half as capable as the US B-17, a craft that would not be sufficient for bombing the bits that would need to be hit.
B-50s or B-36 is what's needed for a conventional attack of the USSR

Germans would have need to have been thinking of 'Amerika Bomber' class, and they were not thinking that, but Dornier 19 and Junkers 89, that were hardly 'Leningrad Bombers' let alone 'Urals Bombers'

 

[Grey Wolf]

Patterns of Force

I don't believe you can remove a strong player and still see everyone just do all the smaller things they did otherwise

The world doesn't work like that.

 

[Inferus]

and no plans for a Bomber half as capable as the US B-17, a craft that would not be sufficient for bombing the bits that would need to be hit.
B-50s or B-36 is what's needed for a conventional attack of the USSR

Germans would have need to have been thinking of 'Amerika Bomber' class, and they were not thinking that, but Dornier 19 and Junkers 89, that were hardly 'Leningrad Bombers' let alone 'Urals Bombers'

I was of the assumption it would be the French, British, AND Germans facing the Soviets. Not just the Germans.

 

[marathag]

I was of the assumption it would be the French, British, AND Germans facing the Soviets. Not just the Germans.

The other two had no plans, either. The Manchester wasn't up for that job either, and it's wartime development, Lancaster wasn't as good for range/speed or altitude as the B-17

None of the Europeans were thinking 'big' enough-- only the Italians had something close to the Boeing, the Piaggio P.108, and they wouldn't be able to make the thousands needed for an air campaign against the USSR

 

[Dave Howery]

, it could possibly achieve some of its goals - like invading Poland to recover lost territory from WWI

wasn't that lost territory a real problem for all of Germany's neighbors? IIRC, those German irredentist populations scattered just outside German territory were the reasons behind a lot of Hitler's shenanigans. Would a non-Nazi government be any less irked?

 

[33k7]

Stalin isn't getting toppled by a revolt in Ukraine, and as for the rest you're just rehashing the "kivk in the door and the rotten edifice will fall" line. In reality, if the OTL Wehrmacht couldn't win a quick victory, the British/French/Weimar militaries won't either.

it is kind of hard to put down a revolution when you have enemy armies breathing down your neck the British and France will have access to the Black Sea and Baltic Sea so can do naval land invasion you have Finland Poland Germany France Romania UK and possibly more Nations moving against the ussr I don't put it past the Japanese getting involved as well to take some territory from the Soviet Union there is no Lend-Lease going to them and they are fighting by themselves you might even see us volunteers going over to fight the Soviets

this is not going to be a long War one and a half years at most before they take Moscow. Joseph Stalin is most likely captured and is brought before a international Tribunal to answer for the genocide in Ukraine and elsewhere in the Soviet Union.