If the KMT is on the verge of winning the Chinese Civil War, does Stalin occupy Xinjiang?

CaliGuy

Banned
If the KMT is on the verge of winning the Chinese Civil War, would Stalin respond to this be occupying Xinjiang?

For the record, the logic behind such a move on Stalin's part would be to protect Soviet Central Asia in the event of a future Sino-Chinese War; after all, the KMT's inclination towards capitalism could eventually make it a natural ally for the U.S. (against the Soviet Union).

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 
Nope. Stalin IOTL sold out Sheng Shicai (the then-de facto ruler of Xinjiang) to Chiang Kai-Shek in 1944 when he offered to join Xinjiang with the Soviet Union (after massacring Communist cadres in 1942...Sheng was, um, opportunistic). In other words, he passed up literally the perfect opportunity to do just that when it would have been maximally advantageous for him relative to internal Chinese politics. Now, part of that can obviously be attributed to the war, but it still shows Stalin's attitude. Combined with his innate caution, I can't see him doing anything as blatant as seizing Xinjiang when it would be more troublesome for him. Sponsoring revolts, sure...invading, no.
 
You'd probably not see it, as I doubt Stalin would straight-up invade China. Soviet-aligned Manchuria, on the other hand, is likely as it was already under Soviet control.
 
It should be noted that for the first part of the Civil War, Stalin greatly favored the KMT over the CCP. It was the USSR that demanded the initial United Front with Chiang Kai-shek. For the '20s and most of the '30s the KMT had a significant left-wing faction and Stalin overall preferred to support the KMT because it was far more powerful than the CCP and he saw it at as bulwark against Japanese interests in the region, with the hope that the left-wing faction would become dominant over the conservative faction. While he still supported the CCP when the war started, if only in spirit, he didn't see much hope in their ability to win. Plus once Mao became the head honcho of the party there were all kinds of ideological schisms (the USSR supported a movement based around the urban proletariat, while Mao's vision was one of peasant rebellion). So prior to the Japanese invasion, Stalin wouldn't be too concerned about a KMT victory.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It should be noted that for the first part of the Civil War, Stalin greatly favored the KMT over the CCP. It was the USSR that demanded the initial United Front with Chiang Kai-shek. For the '20s and most of the '30s the KMT had a significant left-wing faction and Stalin overall preferred to support the KMT because it was far more powerful than the CCP and he saw it at as bulwark against Japanese interests in the region, with the hope that the left-wing faction would become dominant over the conservative faction. While he still supported the CCP when the war started, if only in spirit, he didn't see much hope in their ability to win. Plus once Mao became the head honcho of the party there were all kinds of ideological schisms (the USSR supported a movement based around the urban proletariat, while Mao's vision was one of peasant rebellion). So prior to the Japanese invasion, Stalin wouldn't be too concerned about a KMT victory.
Good information; however, I am talking about a KMT victory in the late 1940s--as in, after the Japanese invasion.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Nope. Stalin IOTL sold out Sheng Shicai (the then-de facto ruler of Xinjiang) to Chiang Kai-Shek in 1944 when he offered to join Xinjiang with the Soviet Union (after massacring Communist cadres in 1942...Sheng was, um, opportunistic). In other words, he passed up literally the perfect opportunity to do just that when it would have been maximally advantageous for him relative to internal Chinese politics. Now, part of that can obviously be attributed to the war, but it still shows Stalin's attitude. Combined with his innate caution, I can't see him doing anything as blatant as seizing Xinjiang when it would be more troublesome for him. Sponsoring revolts, sure...invading, no.
Was Mongolia a different case because it was already Communist even before Stalin came to power, or what?
 
Good information; however, I am talking about a KMT victory in the late 1940s--as in, after the Japanese invasion.

After 1945, the KMT was much more hostile to the USSR. At the same time though, they also had American backing. Not sure if Stalin would risk such a brazen move that would escalate tensions. He cared more about making sure the European "border" with the West was secure, and even then he made some concessions to the US/UK. During the Greek Civil War, he refused to give anything more than token aid to the Greek Communists, allowing for an easy restoration of the Hellenic monarchy. He may be more cautious in Asia.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
After 1945, the KMT was much more hostile to the USSR. At the same time though, they also had American backing. Not sure if Stalin would risk such a brazen move that would escalate tensions. He cared more about making sure the European "border" with the West was secure, and even then he made some concessions to the US/UK. During the Greek Civil War, he refused to give anything more than token aid to the Greek Communists, allowing for an easy restoration of the Hellenic monarchy. He may be more cautious in Asia.
In regards to Greece, though, that was after Stalin had already made a deal with Churchill in regards to spheres of influence in Eastern Europe.
 
No, I don't think Stalin would try occupying Xinjiang as a whole. What he might try to do is to pressure the KMT into recognizing a continuing de facto Soviet protectorate in the "Three Districts" or "Three Regions" shown in red on this map: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...n_China.svg/250px-Second_ETR_in_China.svg.png As I wrote here in 2015:

***


See my post "Sheng Shih-ts'ai Sticks with Stalin " at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/03FHdWEQ638/qhrCRt0d48AJ

Incidentally, that was not the last chance of the Soviet Union to dominate Xinjiang; there was also the Ili Rebellion which I discuss at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/FnFZxyNb1uY/MbBsO1W8owAJ (The source I give there, Mark Dickens, "The Soviets in Xinjiang," is now available at http://www.oxuscom.com/sovinxj.htm) As I note there, the Ili National Army could easily have overrun Urumchi in 1945 but Stalin held it back and brokered a compromise with Chiang instead. Dickens writes, " Why did the Soviets agree to negotiate this treaty when their puppet regime was so close to taking over the entire provincial government? One Western scholar [Andrew D. W. Forbes, *Warlords and Muslims in Chinese Central Asia: A Political History of Republican Sinkiang 1911-1949*] suggests a number of possible reasons: 'The Soviet Union had attained its primary aims in Sinkiang and had no good reason for encouraging further INA advances on Urumchi. By extending its 'all-out support' to the Ili rebels,... the Kremlin had effectively re-established its primacy in the traditionally Soviet-influenced border districts of Ili, Chuguchak and Shara Sume.' 96 This had given the USSR access to the valuable natural resources found in the area, including oil, tungsten, copper, gold, and uranium. In addition, control of the "Three Regions," as the border districts were called, 'provided the Soviet Union with an important political card which could be played both in the international theatre... and on the regional stage, where Stalin remained uncertain as to the eventual outcome of the Nationalist-Communist power struggle in China and therefore as to which side to back.' 97 Finally, 'the further the rebel forces pushed from Ili, the weaker Soviet control became over the movement.... beyond the narrow confines of the Ili Valley anti-Soviet sentiment was rife amongst the independent Kazakhs of the Altai region, and still more so amongst the traditionally conservative Muslim population of the Tarim Basin.'"

My guess is that after World War II, Stalin was no longer so interested in Xinjiang *as a whole* (as opposed to the traditionally Russian-dominated "Three Regions"). During the war Xinjiang had been important as providing access to KMT-controlled China at a time when Japan otherwise blocked access by controlling Manchuria and Inner Mongolia. After the war, Xinjiang lost this importance. So if Chiang recalled Sheng as governor, no matter how pro-Soviet Sheng was, I don't think Stalin would try to resist except to the extent of retaining de facto control of the Three Regions.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...remains-a-soviet-puppet.362353/#post-11115746
 

CaliGuy

Banned
No, I don't think Stalin would try occupying Xinjiang as a whole. What he might try to do is to pressure the KMT into recognizing a continuing de facto Soviet protectorate in the "Three Districts" or "Three Regions" shown in red on this map: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...n_China.svg/250px-Second_ETR_in_China.svg.png As I wrote here in 2015:

***


See my post "Sheng Shih-ts'ai Sticks with Stalin " at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/03FHdWEQ638/qhrCRt0d48AJ

Incidentally, that was not the last chance of the Soviet Union to dominate Xinjiang; there was also the Ili Rebellion which I discuss at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/FnFZxyNb1uY/MbBsO1W8owAJ (The source I give there, Mark Dickens, "The Soviets in Xinjiang," is now available at http://www.oxuscom.com/sovinxj.htm) As I note there, the Ili National Army could easily have overrun Urumchi in 1945 but Stalin held it back and brokered a compromise with Chiang instead. Dickens writes, " Why did the Soviets agree to negotiate this treaty when their puppet regime was so close to taking over the entire provincial government? One Western scholar [Andrew D. W. Forbes, *Warlords and Muslims in Chinese Central Asia: A Political History of Republican Sinkiang 1911-1949*] suggests a number of possible reasons: 'The Soviet Union had attained its primary aims in Sinkiang and had no good reason for encouraging further INA advances on Urumchi. By extending its 'all-out support' to the Ili rebels,... the Kremlin had effectively re-established its primacy in the traditionally Soviet-influenced border districts of Ili, Chuguchak and Shara Sume.' 96 This had given the USSR access to the valuable natural resources found in the area, including oil, tungsten, copper, gold, and uranium. In addition, control of the "Three Regions," as the border districts were called, 'provided the Soviet Union with an important political card which could be played both in the international theatre... and on the regional stage, where Stalin remained uncertain as to the eventual outcome of the Nationalist-Communist power struggle in China and therefore as to which side to back.' 97 Finally, 'the further the rebel forces pushed from Ili, the weaker Soviet control became over the movement.... beyond the narrow confines of the Ili Valley anti-Soviet sentiment was rife amongst the independent Kazakhs of the Altai region, and still more so amongst the traditionally conservative Muslim population of the Tarim Basin.'"

My guess is that after World War II, Stalin was no longer so interested in Xinjiang *as a whole* (as opposed to the traditionally Russian-dominated "Three Regions"). During the war Xinjiang had been important as providing access to KMT-controlled China at a time when Japan otherwise blocked access by controlling Manchuria and Inner Mongolia. After the war, Xinjiang lost this importance. So if Chiang recalled Sheng as governor, no matter how pro-Soviet Sheng was, I don't think Stalin would try to resist except to the extent of retaining de facto control of the Three Regions.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...remains-a-soviet-puppet.362353/#post-11115746
Thanks for all of this information, David! :)

Also, though, would Chiang actually bow to this Soviet pressure in this TL? Or would he indefinitely resist this Soviet pressure?
 
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