If the KMT are about to win the Chinese Civil War, does Stalin prop up Mao in Manchuria?

CaliGuy

Banned
If the KMT are about to win the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s (several years after the end of World War II), does Stalin prop up Mao in Manchuria (and thus create a pro-Soviet puppet regime there in the mold of North Korea)? Or does he allow Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT to capture Manchuria?

Any thoughts on this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
For the record, if Stalin decides to prop up Mao in Manchuria, the state which Mao will lead should approximately have the same borders as Manchukuo had beforehand:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Manchukuo_map.png

Manchukuo_map.png
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I think he will, and he will likely "buy" port Arthur from Mao to gain a warm-water port for Russia.
Buying Port Arthur would be interesting but also possibly risky; after all, to reach Port Arthur by Sea, one needs to cross between Japan and South Korea--both of whom are U.S. allies!
 
I don't think so, Stalin never really cared for Mao at all. Stalin supported the KMT against the Japanese, made a non-aggression pact with Japan, and propped up separatist states in Mongolia and Xinjiang the latter resulted in the death of Mao's last remaining brother.

Remember Mao and his faction were not the Moscow-educated 21 Bolsheviks, so they didn't have much backing by Stalin until it seemed prudent, even then Stalin basically made Mao give the Soviets plenty of resources and left them fitting most of the bill in Korea.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I don't think so, Stalin never really cared for Mao at all. Stalin supported the KMT against the Japanese, made a non-aggression pact with Japan, and propped up separatist states in Mongolia and Xinjiang the latter resulted in the death of Mao's last remaining brother.

Remember Mao and his faction were not the Moscow-educated 21 Bolsheviks, so they didn't have much backing by Stalin until it seemed prudent, even then Stalin basically made Mao give the Soviets plenty of resources and left them fitting most of the bill in Korea.
Wouldn't having Mao as a Soviet puppet ruling Manchuria be better than having Chiang control all of China, though?
 
Wouldn't having Mao as a Soviet puppet ruling Manchuria be better than having Chiang control all of China, though?

No, Stalin wasn't big on ideology in his political calculations, since the Soviets were a pariah state he couldn't do so anyway. Stalin kept Mongolia as a monarchy until the death of the Bodh Khan, so as long as the Soviets got resources it would fine for Chiang to control China, Besides Stalin handed Xinjiang back to Chiang and gave him aid against the Japanese. However, Stalin knew that Mao basically forced the Bolshevik faction of the CCP out of power during the Long March, and last time Stalin backed a card-carrying Communist in China, Sheng Shicai of Xinjiang, Sheng betrayed him in 41-42 when Barbarossa happened.
 
For the record, if Stalin decides to prop up Mao in Manchuria, the state which Mao will lead should approximately have the same borders as Manchukuo had beforehand:

[SNIP]
If Mao is setting up shop in Manchukuo with Soviet backing and Mongolia is a communist state why the large gap between them? I would have thought that they'd make strenuous efforts to add the north-eastern third of Inner Mongolia to the pile as well to shorten the border.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If Mao is setting up shop in Manchukuo with Soviet backing and Mongolia is a communist state why the large gap between them? I would have thought that they'd make strenuous efforts to add the north-eastern third of Inner Mongolia to the pile as well to shorten the border.
Please keep in mind that I said "approximately" here, though.
 
If the KMT are about to win the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s (several years after the end of World War II), does Stalin prop up Mao in Manchuria (and thus create a pro-Soviet puppet regime there in the mold of North Korea)? Or does he allow Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT to capture Manchuria?

Any thoughts on this?

The Communists basically won the war in Manchuria. That's where the best part of the RoC army was destroyed; it was pretty much a rout after that. If the KMT is winning, they hold central Manchuria, and Stalin can't do anything.

Furthermore, IMO, Soviet troops cannot enter China overtly. That would be a casus belli, and Stalin would not risk a war that would explicitly involve the USSR.

One might run a variant war in China; Chiang doesn't commit much force in Manchuria, the Reds seize Manchuria by a sudden strike, and push south - but Chiang's reserve forces, perhaps stiffened by American advisers, check the Red advance around the lower Hwang Ho, then push back toward Manchuria, where Mao has established a state.

Now, can Stalin issue Mao lots of arms and advisers, and even some troops in PRC uniforms, to save the Communist state in Manchuria?

Maybe.
 

Cook

Banned
Umm, didn't the Japanese take it in 1905?

The Soviets reoccupied Port Arthur during the invasion of Manchuria at the close of World War Two, and renewed their lease with the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship of 1945. Following Mao's victory in the civil war, Stalin ostentatiously returned Port Arthur as part of the new treaty with the People's Republic; sans a Communist victory then Soviet rights to Port Arthur would definitely be retained.
 
I wonder what would become of the large number of Japanese loyal Chinese who mao converted. Chang would put some on trial, I guess.
 
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