If the KMT are about to win the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s (several years after the end of World War II), does Stalin prop up Mao in Manchuria (and thus create a pro-Soviet puppet regime there in the mold of North Korea)? Or does he allow Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT to capture Manchuria?
Any thoughts on this?
The Communists basically won the war in Manchuria. That's where the best part of the RoC army was destroyed; it was pretty much a rout after that. If the KMT is winning, they hold central Manchuria, and Stalin can't do anything.
Furthermore, IMO, Soviet troops cannot enter China overtly. That would be a
casus belli, and Stalin would not risk a war that would explicitly involve the USSR.
One might run a variant war in China; Chiang doesn't commit much force in Manchuria, the Reds seize Manchuria by a sudden strike, and push south - but Chiang's reserve forces, perhaps stiffened by American advisers, check the Red advance around the lower Hwang Ho, then push back toward Manchuria, where Mao has established a state.
Now, can Stalin issue Mao lots of arms and advisers, and even some troops in PRC uniforms, to save the Communist state in Manchuria?
Maybe.