If The July 20th Plot Succeed, What Effect Would It Have on The World?

[Soundgarden]

I know the popular concensus would be that Hermann Göring would succeed Hitler as Führer, but how what that effect the war in both Europe and Japan, as well as everything else surrounding it?

Being that Hitler was Nazi Germany, I can't see the war going on much longer, just like in OTL. Plus, I think I read that Göring wanted the war to be over with ASAP, so that would be another reason to surrender.

How would that also effect the Holocaust? Not being as rabibly anti-semitic as Himmler and Goebells, how would he handle it already in progress? The camps weren't liberated yet, but deportations were still going on, and continued to do so until they were discovered. So would the mass killings be halted to cover up any evidence that might leak out at a later date?

There was suppose to be a planned government had the plot succeeded with Ludwig Beck as the new president, so I would imagine, the previous government would collapse on its on in favor of that, and that would be The Holocaust would have to end at that point, since it would no longer be under Nazi Rule, and the killings would be discovered under the new government rather than the Allies.

And what about the effect it would have on Japan? The reason why I brought that up was because The United States was still fighting over on The Pacific, so with Germany out of the way, they US can possibly drop the atomic bomb one year earlier, thus ending the war alltogether.

And lastly, would FDR finish his tenure as President alive and not run for a third term. I know the only reason he ran for a third and fourth term was because the US needed him to get them through the war because of his superior leadership skills and massive popularity. Since the war would essentially be over, who do you think would run in 1944? And would Roosevelt live long enough to enjoy his retirement?

Just goes to show you how the slight movement of a briefcase changed the course of history.

 

[Shaby]

Had the coup succeeded it would almost certainly end with civil war in Germany, massive chaos and collapse of the war effort and entire war making capacity of the Reich. No chance anybody could make a stable government in the mess that would ensue. It might even give credulity to new Dolchstoss in reverse. Anyway, even if new government by some miracle managed to form something resembling normality without entire rotten mess falling apart, no body would negotiate with them. Allies would not. Stalin absolutely would not.

However I doubt they could have controlled internal factions.

 

[Enigmajones]

A different government is in charge when the Soviets roll into Berlin. Possibly an easier transition to peace time Germany, with more EX Nazis in government positions of power.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Oh boy. A July 20 thread. These get unpleasant.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Germany develops a new Dolchstosslegende attributing its defeat in WWII to the July Criminals, hagiographs Adolf Hitler and his goons, and starts looking for a means to start WWIII in the conviction that this time the people in Berlin won't get weak knees and faint hearts. This after an end to the war that sees the total implosion of any pretense of German strategy, greatly accelerated Soviet advances, the SS and Wehrmacht locked in a nasty little civil war accelerating said Soviet advance, massacres on the scale of Babi Yar all over the place, and the Nazis falling apart at the seams, all of which will be attributed to the July Criminals instead of realizing where the responsibility actually lay. Meanwhile logistics bites the Allies in the ass in the West much faster than it does in the East, though it alone saves the Nazis for a while.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Germany develops a new Dolchstosslegende attributing its defeat in WWII to the July Criminals, hagiographs Adolf Hitler and his goons, and starts looking for a means to start WWIII in the conviction that this time the people in Berlin won't get weak knees and faint hearts.

If you go with the superficial "German territory hasn't yet been invaded" comparison to 1918, that might work.

However, board members have said the Germans knew they were losing much earlier (either Stalingrad or Kursk) and there was common disdain for Hitler even among the soldiers. I'm trying to look up information one way or the other.

Plus Germany was getting regularly bombed. How much did the war touch the average German in 1918?

 

[Snake Featherston]

If you go with the superficial "German territory hasn't yet been invaded" comparison to 1918, that might work.

However, board members have said the Germans knew they were losing much earlier (either Stalingrad or Kursk) and there was common disdain for Hitler even among the soldiers. I'm trying to look up information one way or the other.

Plus Germany was getting regularly bombed. How much did the war touch the average German in 1918?

There may have been disdain for Hitler but German soldiers were fighting IOTL so tenaciously both the USSR and the democracies had to annihilate their armies IOTL. In reality Germany was defeated completely in 1918, and this didn't avert a Dolchstosslegende. The WWII version would instead attribute Germany being bombed to the influence of the July Criminals hamstringing the Luftwaffe. Stab in the Back Legends don't need a realistic basis.

 

[Soundgarden]

Okay, but how would it effect the World, not just Germany is what I was asking?

 

[Shaby]

In regards to effects on Holocaust - if the mess and civil war ensue, who can predict what SS would do? Eliminate camps ASAP? Commit some massive 'Last Hurrah' attrocity? It all depends how massive a collapse ensue.

Short of new government surrendering unconditionally to both WAllies and Soviets, effects on outside world would be nil. Allies advance from the west, Wehrmacht surrenders, SS fights or retreats. In the East everyone fights Soviets, but lacking logistics and replacements with added possibility of SS - Heer conflict their efforts are achieving even less than in OTL. By April, Berlin is occupied and after some haggling, Soviet and Western spheres are established at approximately same borders.

Why would events in Germany have any effect on Japan whatsoever? They certainly did not pay much attention to Europe in OTL.

 

[MerryPrankster]

One of the Valkyrie orders was the provision of food and medical supplies to the camps, whose inmates would not be permitted to engage in political demonstrations.

(WTH?)

Whether this is carried out depends on how cooperative the people actually running the camps are with the new order, or how long it remains in place.

(Blairwitch makes the case that even if the Home Army was able to suppress the SS, Gestapo, etc., Guderian--who had a personal beef with Beck--would then roll in with the Panzer trainees in Potsdam and make himself the new ruler.)

 

[Enigmajones]

In regards to effects on Holocaust - if the mess and civil war ensue, who can predict what SS would do? Eliminate camps ASAP? Commit some massive 'last hooray' attrocity? It all depends how massive a collapse ensue.

Short of new government surrendering unconditionally to both WAllies and Soviets, effects on outside world would be nil. Allies advance from the west, Wehrmacht surrenders, SS fights or retreats. In the East everyone fights Soviets, but lacking logistics and replacements with added possibility of SS - Heer conflict their efforts are achieving even less than in OTL. By April, Berlin is occupied and after some haggling, Soviet and Western spheres are established at approximately same borders.

Why would events in Germany have any effect on Japan whatsoever? They certainly did not pay much attention to Europe in OTL.

I believe the term is Last Hurrah.

 

[jmc247]

Oh boy. A July 20 thread. These get unpleasant.

The July 20th plot was a well intentioned, but half baked plan. First it should have happened before the WAllies landed at Normandy after that the July plotters goal of a conditional peace with the Anglo-Americans was impossible.

The time to do it was pre-Kursk and post-Stalingrad. With Hitler dead, Goering and Himmler would not be acceptable choices to the Heer at that point in time. Yes, I know the Allies announced unconditional surrender a few months earlier. But, if Hitler dies that early a peace with conditions still could have been worked out assuming the bloodletting in Germany after Hitler dies doesn't go on to long and a not evil and sane leadership takes over.

At very least they should have gone for it in March or April of 1944 and should have used ball bearings in their explosives. They needed to go at a time when Germany had somekind of military position to negotiate with.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Do it too early and you risk a stab in the back myth. I don't have the excessive certainty of those who insist such a thing is inevitable in these circumstances, but it's something that must be considered.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Do it too early and you risk a stab in the back myth. I don't have the excessive certainty of those who insist such a thing is inevitable in these circumstances, but it's something that must be considered.

Well, given Hitler was the subject of an OTL one, I hardly see the implausibility of it in this scenario. Germany's generals were both bullies and cowards and lacked any concept of responsibility for their own actions.

 

[jmc247]

Do it too early and you risk a stab in the back myth. I don't have the excessive certainty of those who insist such a thing is inevitable in these circumstances, but it's something that must be considered.

I personally don't think it matters too much as...

1. If Germany is occupied by the Western Allies and not the Soviet's (or at very least they get a shitty occupation zone) honestly the German population will be indoctrinated by the Western Allies to be the same type of uber pacifists they are OTL. This would be the best the July Plotters could get if they managed to pull it off in say March of 1944 as I talked about.

If you control the schools and the media as the U.S. and UK did in West Germany (even after the West German government was put in place Washington, London and to a lesser extent Paris had a massive say in whatever the Germans tought their kids, what they saw in the movies, and eventually what they saw on TV) by the time the next generation of Germans comes of age they will be as anti war as they were OTL. The Cold War still happens in this situation so Germans will be in for a looong occupation.

2. Lets say a not Nazi Germany post Stalingrad/pre-Kursk manages to come to power and make a beggers peace. The best they would get is a return to their 1938 or more likely 1937 borders along with some other not pleasant conditions.

There might be a stab in the back myth that comes about that they could have ruled all Europe if not for Hitler being killed, hell many AH posters today would likely argue that if Hitler lived he might have led Germany to victory.

But, the fact is Germany would be on very thin ice in such a scenero and the U.S. is still going to build the first nukes by 1945 or 1946 at the latest and the Soviet's will do it perhaps even earlier say by 1948 as they will be able to put more resources into it then OTL. Germany will be left behind by the other major powers as they didn't invest their resources properly and their economy will be a wreck. Sure, they could start another war, but I am guessing German leaders of all stripes will know they will become a radioactive version of Carthage if they start another war. They would also have a much larger and better equipped Red Army then 1941 version of it breathing down their throats.

It wouldn't turn into a three sided Cold War in such a scenario, Germany would be too far behind in terms of nuke research and their economy to be a side of their own.

 

[Geon]

July 20 Success

First I'd like to offer a side note before I give my thoughts. In OTL General Eisenhower refused to even shake the hands or show any courtesy to General Jodl or the other Nazi generals when they surrendered unconditionally in May 1945. Here I could imagine General von Stauffenberg offering German's surrender and Eisenhower actually shaking the "hand of the man who helped end this war." Churchill I suspect would want to give Count von Stauffenberg a medal for "giving that maniac what he so rightly deserved."

Having said that, I am making an assumption that Operation Valkyrie is better planned and the Generals involved carry through on their assignments without wavering. This means the major Nazi leaders are held under arrest and that the army is now solidly in control of the country.

Germany is going to lose the war. Unconditional surrender is the only thing the Allies will accept at this point. The new regime would understand that very well. So, first and foremost I see the war ending in Europe in August of 1944 rather than May of 1945. The Western Allies will be able to occupy all of Germany while Stalin can occupy Poland and whatever areas he is already in. Yalta has not yet taken place so the Allies can be a bit more strict with the Soviet Union on what she can and cannot have. Stalin will throw a hissy fit but there's very little else he can do.

Churchill was a shrewd man. He already saw that the U.S.S.R. would be the next enemy. In this he had the support of a lot of the U.S. military (i.e. Patton). He would realize that a weak helpless Germany would need to be constantly garrisoned against Soviet moves while they had troops on the German/Polish border. Therefore, working with Roosevelt he comes up with a plan. The new German government is told it does not have to completely disarm. But it must turn over to the Allies all those who committed war crimes and any of the leaders of Nazi Germany if still alive. I think it likely that the new German government would hold its own version of the Nuremburg Trials. The Allies might send observers or even demand to have a judge or two on the Tribunal but I think they would allow this especially since it would silence any future criticism of the Allies being vengeful. Further the Allies insure the new German government undergoes a rigorous de-nazification program, but they allow the more anti-Nazi leaders of the government to take the lead in doing so.

Because the war ends earlier it means that many of those who would have died in the Holocaust in the next nine months survive with various butterfiles resulting from this. One of these is that Anne Frank survives with her sister and most of her family. Her diary is later published and Anne becomes an award winning author in post-war Europe.

With an early end to the war the Allies are able to move more troops into the Pacific theater faster. Sadly however, it probably means an earlier Downfall. MacArthur wanted an invasion of Japan so badly he could taste it. Okinawa and Iwo Jima are still bloody messes. With the A-bomb still momtns away Downfall occurs sometime in early 1945. The casualty list is horrendous but Japan finally surrenders in early to mid 1945.

What you end up having at the end of WWII is a shattered Japan that will take years to rebuild (in some ways worse than OTL given what I've heard the Japanese had planned for their Ketsu-Go operation). You also have a Western Europe which includes a still united but occupied Germany. The Cold War still occurs but the Soviets are in a much weaker position and find themselves facing a united Germany which will quickly be rearmed against them (no more then 5 or 6 years I would say with the coup govt. in place-providing the Allies allow it to remain).

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Basically none - maybe hold fast orders are not given, so maybe less losses on all sides...

War ends 1944

 

[Catspoke]

Germany in chaos at this point means means:

a) Polish home army doesn't get crushed by Germany and is an actor the Soviets will have to deal with.
b) Slovak army doesn't get crushed by Germans. Post war Bohemia, Moravia and Slovakia are all in flux. Allies could reach Prague first.
c) Presumably the Rommanians, Hungarians, Bulgarians, Finns are going to try and make peace as soon as its obvious the Germans can't hurt or help them.
d) Things ironed out at Yalta are still up in there air here.
e) instead of newcomers dealing with Stalin, Churchill will still be in power, and FDR president until at least January 45.
f) V2s not launched, V1s only barely, no significant deployment of jets, post war development gets delayed for these things.
g) Lots more Jews alive, lots more people alive in general
h) More Vichy collaborationists caught by Frenchmen, instead of evacuating to Germany
i) More warships captured intact at the end of the war, including the Tirpitz - cool booty for the Soviets perhaps.
j) German industry and communications more intact
h) Mussolini flees to Spain
i) Croat and other various anti communist factions in Yougoslavia will have to be dealt with by somebody.

Likely B+C above handled by the Soviets roughly will be tolerated. I can't see the Allies just letting A go though if the Soviets crush the Polish home army overtly.

 

[Faeelin]

Germany is going to lose the war. Unconditional surrender is the only thing he Allies will accept at this point. The new regime would understand that very well.

This seems unlikely; quite a few plotters thought the Western Allies would use them as a bulwark against the Russians. E.g., http://books.google.com/books?id=Er...w&ved=0CGAQ6AEwCDgK#v=onepage&q=peace&f=false.

See page 353 for more evidence of German delusions:http://books.google.com/books?id=21...gH16IGgAw&ved=0CDgQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q&f=false.

 

[Detlef]

There may have been disdain for Hitler but German soldiers were fighting IOTL so tenaciously both the USSR and the democracies had to annihilate their armies IOTL. In reality Germany was defeated completely in 1918, and this didn't avert a Dolchstosslegende. The WWII version would instead attribute Germany being bombed to the influence of the July Criminals hamstringing the Luftwaffe. Stab in the Back Legends don't need a realistic basis.

Well, not developing or publishing the Morgenthau plan in September 1944 might have helped here?
Which was of course used by Goebbels then in Nazi Germany.

Telling people that either up to 25 million of them have to emigrate quickly after the war ends (which countries would accept them back then in 1945?) or simply starve following the implementation of the Morgenthau plan doesn´t seem a policy intended to end the war quickly?

If you were to tell me that your country actually plans for the starvation of one third / one quarter of the population of my country, I´d fight tenaciously too.