If the Jin (Jurchens) didn't replace the Liao dynasty, who would?

I'm working on a timeline in which the Korean general Yun Gwan successfully conquers the Liao empire's Jurchen protectorates in Manchuria (he came surprisingly close OTL. For more on that see The Tiger & The Magpie or look him up.)

The thing is, ITTL, the Jurchens, who would have replaced the Liao in 1125 AD, are subject to the Koreans (and have been for about 14 years, which isn't much, but still), so I doubt that (even if a significant amount did move west) they would be powerful enough to conquer the Liao. The Liao would definitely still collapse, being even weaker than ITL. The next option would be the Western Xia, their southern neighbours, but they had terrible military leadership at the time.

So who would fill the power vacuum? I don't want to mess with Mongolia, so as not to butterfly away everyone's favourite horselord. There are the Uyghurs in Qocho, who were in a similar situation to the Jurchens, being one of the collapsing empire's tributaries, there are the Kara Khanids. But both of these would have to conquer the Xia to get to the Liao.

There's also China, but OTL the Jin conquered parts of china, so clearly the Song leadership wasn't exactly great...

Can anybody help? Do any of these make sense? Anybody else who could fill the power vacuum?

Here's a map of Eurasia around then, for reference.
 
AFAIK most historians of China think the collapse of the Khitan state was a fluke event, so I'd think they'd still be around. This would also buy a few decades for the Seljuks who won't lose to Yelu Dashi, with butterflies rapidly spreading all over Eurasia.

In any case, with a POD in that part of the world at that time would butterfly away the Mongols.
 

Kaze

Banned
The Western Xia's leadership did not get bad until 1170. In 1170, Emperor Renzong discovered a plot to kill him. He executed the generals (and purged a good part of the military) who were behind the plot. As a result, Renzong distrusted his army generals and the army began to fall into incompetence - after this purge it made it easy for the rising of the Mongols under Genghis Khan began to pose threats as Mongols began raiding border villages. Eventually, the Mongols would run over the Western Xia like a truck over a bicycle.

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Why not Korea itself? Who knows we could Wank Korea in this way - You could even have the Koreans use the Jurchans as mercenary forces to invade.

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Other option - Southern Song marches north. It was not dead yet, but it might be done because the generals smelled the blood in the water.
 
AFAIK most historians of China think the collapse of the Khitan state was a fluke event, so I'd think they'd still be around. This would also buy a few decades for the Seljuks who won't lose to Yelu Dashi, with butterflies rapidly spreading all over Eurasia.

In any case, with a POD in that part of the world at that time would butterfly away the Mongols.

OOF. If I have the Liao survive longer, say 86 years, and have the mongols conquer them instead of the Jin…

The first crusade would fail, regardless, wouldn't it. With a more powerful Seljuk empire. That would change Europe a lot...

That's my best attempt at minimizing butterflies. OOF. Then again, it could realistically be said that any change to Asia prior to Genghis would or wouldn't result in the mongol empire, since that was a fluke and a half.

Any better ideas?
 
The Western Xia's leadership did not get bad until 1170. In 1170, Emperor Renzong discovered a plot to kill him. He executed the generals (and purged a good part of the military) who were behind the plot. As a result, Renzong distrusted his army generals and the army began to fall into incompetence - after this purge it made it easy for the rising of the Mongols under Genghis Khan began to pose threats as Mongols began raiding border villages. Eventually, the Mongols would run over the Western Xia like a truck over a bicycle.

=====================

Why not Korea itself? Who knows we could Wank Korea in this way - You could even have the Koreans use the Jurchans as mercenary forces to invade.

====
Other option - Southern Song marches north. It was not dead yet, but it might be done because the generals smelled the blood in the water.

Interesting ideas. I'd say Korea has already taken a big bite, and needs to stabilize Manchuria.
China was fairly weak, but I agree that it might be able to do something.
Are you saying the Xia could have done it? that would be interesting.

There is also, as @Intransigent Southerner said, a chance of the Liao surviving (a much better chance than I thought)...
 

Kaze

Banned
The way I would write it would be that Korea takes the whole of Manchuria stabilizing it, maybe sending a small force to Zhongdu (modern day Beijing - at the time the Liao was using the city as a secondary capital) to make sure they can keep Manchuria. The south would make a miserable attempt to retake the north - probably get as far as Luoyang before they lose their momentum and collapse into a fragile peace treaty. As for the Xia - they would take the opportunity to take a bite out of the Liao - not a large bite; but if there is no assassination attempt - the Xia might live much longer.
 
OOF. If I have the Liao survive longer, say 86 years, and have the mongols conquer them instead of the Jin…
The issue is that the Khitans held a much more effective hegemony over what is now Mongolia than the Jurchens, including a 20,000-men garrison in western Mongolia (which Yelu Dashi took with him to conquer Central Asia), so a problem like Genghis might not be allowed to fester and grow. OTOH, the Khitans failed to control the Jurchens, so who knows -- it's still possible that Genghis would conquer the Liao much as OTL.

The Song would not attack the Khitans again unless they were obviously in their death throes. The arrangement, if humiliating, was profitable enough and the Song were far too weak.

The First Crusade was already won, but the butterflies will hit hard when Sultan Ahmad Sanjar doesn't lose catastrophically to the Khitans at Qatwan. Ahmad's humiliation at Qanjar led to him being kidnapped by irate Turkish chieftains, which sealed the fate of the Seljuk empire as the governors took the chance to declare independence. With the Seljuks still around this will very soon have consequences on the Ghurids, who happened to rule large parts of India. Meanwhile, Saladin might never be sent to Egypt without a quasi-independent Zengids (the Zengids were among those who declared independence in the wake of Qatwan), which buys the Fatimids more time, and so forth...



@Kaze: the Song already have Luoyang, this isn't the Southern Song we're talking about.
 
The First Crusade was already won.

F*ck. I was thinking of the first crusade happening when the second one did. WTF was my mind doing? That was a failure anyway. so at least that butterfly isn't something to worry abt.

But then there's all those changes in the middle east. I guess I can deal with those, they'd probably make for a pretty interesting sidetrack in the TL. But less independent Turkic kingdoms could mean no ottomans, or am I wrong again? I could work with that, but...
 
But less independent Turkic kingdoms could mean no ottomans, or am I wrong again?
Not necessarily. The Seljuks of Anatolia were already independent by the time Ahmad Sanjar lost to the Khitans. So if the Mongols crush TTL's Persian Seljuks as easily as they did the Khwarezmians OTL, and go on to crush the Anatolian Seljuks again as they did OTL, it's not impossible that the Anatolian Seljuks would break up into pieces, and that one of those pieces would happen to be led by a certain Osman...
 
Ok. Thanks. So it looks like, no matter what, there's going to be an interesting middle eastern side TL within this one.

I'm probably going to keep the Liao around for simplicity's sake, unless I get some very interesting suggestions...
 
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