If the Japanese win the Battle of Midway, would Japan be able to invade the US?

[America4thOfJuly]

I'm not sure if anyone asked about this but I'm honestly wondering that if the Imperial Japanese Navy had defeated the US Pacific Fleet at Midway, would Japan be able to freely invade the US or what as I also wanted to know the effect or reaction to such an event happening? Would the US focus more on the Atlantic or what after that? Would Japan be bold to invade the Soviet Union after defeating the American Pacific Fleet at Midway?

 

[eltf177]

In one word...NO.

Even if Japan managed to seize Midway they could never have held it for long, they would be forced to abandon it. At the very best Operation Watchtower (the invasion of Guadalcanal, also known as Operation Shoestring) gets pushed back a few months.

And invade the US? Not a chance, nowhere near enough manpower plus no shipping to get them there. And being able to protect them would force most of the IJN to remain off the US coast. Unless they held Hawaii (which again they could never take) this guarantees heavy losses and a much shorter war - assuming they were insane enough to try...

 

[Monk78]

Even if they land by some miracle in California or Oregon how far can they realistically go ?
considering their logistical line stretch thousands of miles.

 

[Glory2Cabinda]

No they would not,

 

[Post]

General opinion on the board is that they couldn't even have succesfully invaded Midway with the forces they sent.* And that Hawaii was impossible for them to invade. Without Hawaai, the west coast is impossible for them to reach.

*this also means that a repelled invasion will be spun as a victory for the US: "inspite of our navy's defeat, the invasion of Midway was against all odss succesfully repelled by our valiant groundtroops."

Even if they land by some miracle in California or Oregon how far can they realistically go ?
considering their logistical line stretch thousands of miles.

They can't land there with more than a platoon (and that platoon gets there by submarine).

 

[Not James Stockdale]

The 6th Defense Battalion alone had 1,700 Marines in June 1942 and the garrison also had a two companies of Marine Raiders plus all of the ground crews for the ~100 aircraft based there (likely in excess of 2k personnel). The Japanese were only bringing 5,000 troops and had only a very poor ability to make an opposed beach landing.

 

[Geon]

The Japanese were overextended as it was. Most of their army divisions were tied down fighting in China and Burma, not to mention garrisoned on islands throughout their perimeter. Further supplying an invasion of the U.S. West Coast would have been a logistical nightmare and would have required more ships then the D-Day landings.

They would have needed a better jumping off point then Midway, which meant they would have to take Hawaii next. And that by 1942 was flat out impossible. Hawaii was too well defended.

So, while the invasion of the West Coast might be the dream of many a young Japanese lieutenant at the time it was unlikely to happen.

 

[Lalli]

Not any chances. Germans had better chances invade Britain. Americans would are ready for such thing and there is hellish logisitcal nightmare for Japanese. Even if they manage land to California, they will are pushed back to sea quickly.

 

[Pete55]

I might make a thread detailing some of this at some point, but the short answer is no.

(...although technically Midway is part of Hawaii and therefore part of the US, the same with the Aleitians, I presume you refer to the contiguous US)

The assault on Midway was a disaster in the waiting. That is noted by Parshall and Tully in Shattered Sword, and all but proven by American experience in assaulting similarly defended islands. I actually made a thread not long ago on a different forum comparing Tarawa and Midway regarding the defenses, and they are surprisingly similar.

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Regardless, The IJN and IJA (Imperial Japans army and navy, respectively) both DID plan on assaulting Hawaii following the Kidway operation. There are endless issues with their plans for this, mostly due to the mass of airpower and 5 division equivalents of Americans around Oahu.

So the Midway assault likely fails at the beaches, and a Hawaii assault is likewise potentially possible to attempt but virtually impossible to succeed.

As for assaulting CONUS, that is really to far beyond their logistical capacity to even dream about, aside from submarine raids. They potentially could have landed small groups to raid along the coast from their larger submarines, but that's a lot of effort/risk for a small reward.

--

As a PS note, the movie Pearl Harbor wins the award for the stupidest line ever, with a general saying that the Japanese could "get to Chicago before we could stop them". With pop culture saying stuff like that, don't feel bad for thinking that a landing was possible.

Edit 1: The Japanese, even in the event of a Midway assault going to plan, did not have any plans to invade the USSR at the time. More likely, they attempt to build up for their planned assault on Oahu.

 

[Alanith]

Technically they did invade the US during the operation...

But long story short? Not just no but hell no. The sea mammal has a better chance then Japan successfully invading the 48.

 

[eltf177]

The 6th Defense Battalion alone had 1,700 Marines in June 1942 and the garrison also had a two companies of Marine Raiders plus all of the ground crews for the ~100 aircraft based there (likely in excess of 2k personnel). The Japanese were only bringing 5,000 troops and had only a very poor ability to make an opposed beach landing.

No proper landing boats and no amphibious tanks (the US had a few Stuart's on Midway).

 

[Sapa Inka Wiraqucha]

Uhh... no! Here's a broad map:

Japan <-> ocean broken up by islands <-> Midway <-> Hawaii <-> fucktons of empty ocean <-> California

You see the problem here? No way to do an island-hopping campaign beyond Hawaii. At best they sit at Hawaii and if ASBs favor them they keep blapping every fleet that gets sent their way while hopefully wising up in the arts of submarine warfare. At best, they go after Attu and Alaska, but that's its own can of worms.

 

[lordroel]

I'm not sure if anyone asked about this but I'm honestly wondering that if the Imperial Japanese Navy had defeated the US Pacific Fleet at Midway, would Japan be able to freely invade the US or what as I also wanted to know the effect or reaction to such an event happening? Would the US focus more on the Atlantic or what after that? Would Japan be bold to invade the Soviet Union after defeating the American Pacific Fleet at Midway?

In 1942 there where already 4 Essex class carriers under construction with them to be commissioned in 1943, in that time period Japan only had 1 carrier that was of the same class as the Essex that was commissioned, so you can see, Japan would be out built and out produced by the United States whether the United States won ore lost at the Battle of Midway.

 

[Resurgam]

In a word, no.

In more than a word, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

 

[Sapa Inka Wiraqucha]

In 1942 there where already 4 Essex class carriers under construction with them to be commissioned in 1943, in that time period Japan only had 1 carrier that was of the same class as the Essex that was commissioned, so you can see, Japan would be out built and out produced by the United States whether the United States won ore lost at the Battle of Midway.

Basically, you need the Japanese smash victory version of Midway to happen again... and again... and again, and the laws of probability dictate that the chance of the chain of lucky victories gets lower the longer that chain is.
The Americans only need to get lucky once; the Japanese have to be lucky every time.
The former trait, btw, is the hallmark of a real-life Mary Sue nation.

Really, this would have to be a battle of who loses more skilled personnel; if the Japanese manage to keep their formations intact, adopt sensible training plans for their aircrews and stop being such perfectionists/pussies with their aircraft design department, they can keep up to date on equipment even as American losses hemorrhage replaceable carrriers and invaluable crews, but that is all. They still need ever-greater luck to keep their carriers.

 

[Geon]

As a PS note, the movie Pearl Harbor wins the award for the stupidest line ever, with a general saying that the Japanese could "get to Chicago before we could stop them". With pop culture saying stuff like that, don't feel bad for thinking that a landing was possible.

This quote was not original to the movie. It came from FDR himself. I believe it was in a private briefing with the Joint Chiefs, FDR was concerned how unprepared America was for war in 1941 and was concerned that if the Japanese launched an attack on the West Coast the U.S. Army wouldn't be able to stop them short of the Mississippi River and Chicago.

Something to bear in mind with regard to this period, the Japanese had just pulled off the worst defeat suffered by the USN in their history. Many even among the leadership of the U.S. believed if they pulled that off they could invade the West Coast.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I'm not sure if anyone asked about this but I'm honestly wondering that if the Imperial Japanese Navy had defeated the US Pacific Fleet at Midway, would Japan be able to freely invade the US or what as I also wanted to know the effect or reaction to such an event happening? Would the US focus more on the Atlantic or what after that? Would Japan be bold to invade the Soviet Union after defeating the American Pacific Fleet at Midway?

No.

They could just about raid into the Central pacific and Indian Ocean.

They had no ability to remain there.

 

[Sapa Inka Wiraqucha]

This quote was not original to the movie. It came from FDR himself. I believe it was in a private briefing with the Joint Chiefs, FDR was concerned how unprepared America was for war in 1941 and was concerned that if the Japanese launched an attack on the West Coast the U.S. Army wouldn't be able to stop them short of the Mississippi River and Chicago.

Something to bear in mind with regard to this period, the Japanese had just pulled off the worst defeat suffered by the USN in their history. Many even among the leadership of the U.S. believed if they pulled that off they could invade the West Coast.

Then they were bullshitting through their teeth and using "give me budget NOW"-speak on the treasury in order to get them to cough up the necessary funding.

 

[Resurgam]

This quote was not original to the movie. It came from FDR himself. I believe it was in a private briefing with the Joint Chiefs, FDR was concerned how unprepared America was for war in 1941 and was concerned that if the Japanese launched an attack on the West Coast the U.S. Army wouldn't be able to stop them short of the Mississippi River and Chicago.

Something to bear in mind with regard to this period, the Japanese had just pulled off the worst defeat suffered by the USN in their history. Many even among the leadership of the U.S. believed if they pulled that off they could invade the West Coast.

This is a good point. There were concerns about landings on the West Coast, which among other things led to Japanese internment. Whether those concerns were legitimate is a whole other issue.

 

[wcv215]

Then they were bullshitting through their teeth and using "give me budget NOW"-speak on the treasury in order to get them to cough up the necessary funding.

While possible it really should be remembered that people at the time are working with extremely limited information. Its the same reason that an invasion of the British Isles seemed so likely to happen in 1940, even though looking back on it we can see how horribly unlikely it was.