If the French Revolution doesn't occur, does the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth survive?

CaliGuy

Banned
Basically, I'm curious as to whether or not the elimination of the French Revolution (or, at the very least, having French King Louis XVI avoid fleeing to Varennes and thus avoid getting removed and guillotined) would prevent the break-up and dissolution of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Indeed, any thoughts on this?

Also, if the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth survives (albeit with somewhat less territory due to the 1772 partition) in this TL, what does it look like in the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries?
 
No. After the first Partition, and the various Confederations, the Commonwealth will either reform or get absorbed by Russia (probably after an attempt at reform). After 1772, its decay is terminal, and the only useful role it can play is to die a glorious, bloody death to inspire the Christ-of-Nations ideology. The military is small and backward, the legislature terminally dysfunctional.

The 'best' that can be hoped for is that the Sejm elects a Russian Tsar as King, thus forming a personal union in which the Commonwealth is nominally independent (similar to the post-Vienna Kingdom). How that would develop in a 'no revolutionaries' TL is itself an interesting question--it depends on whether Nationalism is as successful an ideology without Napoleon to spread it.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
No. After the first Partition, and the various Confederations, the Commonwealth will either reform or get absorbed by Russia (probably after an attempt at reform). After 1772, its decay is terminal, and the only useful role it can play is to die a glorious, bloody death to inspire the Christ-of-Nations ideology. The military is small and backward, the legislature terminally dysfunctional.

So, were any attempts at reform doomed to fail?

The 'best' that can be hoped for is that the Sejm elects a Russian Tsar as King, thus forming a personal union in which the Commonwealth is nominally independent (similar to the post-Vienna Kingdom). How that would develop in a 'no revolutionaries' TL is itself an interesting question--it depends on whether Nationalism is as successful an ideology without Napoleon to spread it.

OK; understood.

Also, how do you think that nationalism or the lack thereof would have developed without Napoleon?
 
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