Can you clarify what you mean by this? The wording is odd. It sounds like you are saying that Reagan would win despite not being very smart.
Sense != intelligence in English, it’s the old trope of smart people doing dumb (or at least implausible) things.
Reagan ran for President in 1968 despite the long odds. He might well do the same in 1972. His run in 1968 was not sensible (unless he had started earlier), nor would a run against a Democratic incumbent with a healthy Wallace in the mix in 1972 be sensible. Nor is challenging the President of the United States sensible, yet Reagan still tried.
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