If the Cuban Missile Crisis became nuclear war, which large cities would survive?

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If nuclear war had happened in 1980 or later instead of 1962, would it lead to a full-blown Ice Age due to the greater number of targets and greater accuracy in hitting those targets (creating more dust)?

I'm not a climate scientist, so I would defer to more informed opinions but I think it is clear that there would be a climate effect of cooling but the intensity and duration of that effect is an open question at least in my own mind. By the 1980s, though, perhaps the bigger question is whether there would be many people around to care. Europe, North America, the Soviet Union, Eastern Asia and China would be devastated. A nuclear war in 1962 would have been bad. By 1980, it became unthinkable. If anyone was around to care, a cooling climate effect would complicate recovery by creating a harsher climate and by making the growing season shorter. If you look at that map, by the way, the most irradiated parts of the US happen to coincide with some of the best farm land in the world. Those who didn't die in the blasts or from the fallout would face a very difficult food situation very quickly. And those in other parts of the world dependent upon food imports who may not have been directly affected by the nuclear blasts and fallout would feel the impact rather quickly. And climate change, even temporary, would make that worse.

While I don't think nuclear war even in the 1980s would have killed off humanity, it would have been a mass extinction event reducing the human population from billions to millions, with the survivors facing a long road back to an industrial civilization. And a cooling of the climate would have played a role in that, whether it lasted a few years or turned into something longer.

Fortunately, we didn't blow up the world, so we can look back on this 30 years later and discuss it! But it was certainly an odd era in which to grow up and contemplate such questions.
 
How bad would Europe be hit? I assume an escalation scenario which is imho the most probable one. Germany would be glassed most probably, but what of peripheral nations like Ireland, Portugal or Greece? Neutrals like Switzerland or Sweden? The attacks would come from IRBM's and bombers I suppose: but how many detonations are we talking about? Can a rough estimate be done, so that we can think of what European cities might have survived? Also, would Israel and its principal Arab enemies be hit?

In any case the survivors are going to face famine on an apocalyptic scale most likely: unless improbable American aid comes in soon, civilisation might breakdown even in western Europe, not only in Warsaw pact countries...

There were thousands of nuclear warheads on both sides available for use in Europe. Write off every nation in NATO or the Warsaw Pact; assume it's hit and hit hard. That doesn't leave much. What's left is down to a subsistence level of existence at best for at least a few years, and that assumes that there aren't any direct hits on Zurich, Stockholm, Lisbon or Dublin. Any countries that are intact are going to be swamped with refugees.

Any aid from the US, Australia, New Zealand, etc. is probably a few years away in a best case scenario.
 

marathag

Banned
There were thousands of nuclear warheads on both sides available for use in Europe. Write off every nation in NATO or the Warsaw Pact; assume it's hit and hit hard. That doesn't leave much. What's left is down to a subsistence level of existence at best for at least a few years, and that assumes that there aren't any direct hits on Zurich, Stockholm, Lisbon or Dublin. Any countries that are intact are going to be swamped with refugees.

Any aid from the US, Australia, New Zealand, etc. is probably a few years away in a best case scenario.

Pact Plans provided for plenty of use of their whole NBC suite.
Western Europe won't be a nice place to be
 
Many palces would not be it, like Alpine areas, but they are also places that will collapse in a very short time without food imports and with a likely refugee exodus that will be impossible to stop.

Europe will be reduced to "fourth world" status for decades...
 
Great Nuclear War shameless plug

http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Great_Nuclear_War

There is a community timeline dedicated to this topic at the wiki! I am the original author. Albeit, this POD is a tad different. Kennedy chooses to invade Cuba, and this results in large-scale nuclear conflict. It's admittedly quite similar to 1983: Doomsday, but that is where the inspiration came from, so you get what you came for. Shameless plug is shameless
 
This is what FEMA estimated the Soviets would have struck in the 1980s. Yellow is fallout-free, dark red is no longer habitable.

mKV3ndl.png

I am a bit puzzled over what the alleged target is in north-central Nebraska. Ain't much in the way of targets up there.
 
Best place to live might be the Southwest.

To reach SLC, Phoenix or a number of other cities, a Soviet bomber would have to cross wide stretches of desert, where there would be few Americans underneath. So if necessary, a nuclear-tipped missile could be used to destroy the plane.
 
Great Nuclear War shameless plug

http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Great_Nuclear_War

There is a community timeline dedicated to this topic at the wiki! I am the original author. Albeit, this POD is a tad different. Kennedy chooses to invade Cuba, and this results in large-scale nuclear conflict. It's admittedly quite similar to 1983: Doomsday, but that is where the inspiration came from, so you get what you came for. Shameless plug is shameless

I haven't had a chance to read much of the timeline yet, but I was confused by the reference to "Soviet aircraft carriers"--in 1962, the Soviets didn't have any aircraft carriers.
 
Dude, the Soviets didn't even have that many ICBMs in the early 60s.
Working the figures through, assuming that Soviet availability is 85%, the US can destroy 100% of missiles in Cuba and 75% of those in the USSR, missiles are 50% reliable, and NORAD can shoot down 30% of attacking aircraft. All those figures are reasonable for the era.

If the Americans strike first, the Soviets get 15 bombers, 4 Kh-20 cruise missiles, and 4 ICBMs through the defences. The bombers probably carry two devices each, for a total of 38 DGZs. This will hurt, but is in Doctor Strangelove's 'mussed hair' category. Depending on what the ones that didn't get through were aimed at, it's possible that almost all cities survive.

If the Soviets strike first, then it's 62 bombers, 17 Kh-20s, and 16 ICBMs. Add another 17 IRBMs if the Cuban missiles are up and working. Total is 157/174 devices. That's probably going to leave the US somewhere between the WW2 experiences of Belarus and Japan.

In Scenario One, the USA is still top dog, and everyone with any sense treads carefully around them. In Scenario Two, the USA is going to take a long time to rebuild, and the world centre of power will shift south, but will be judged the winner on a technicality. In return, the USSR ceases to exist, along with most of the Eastern Bloc, and Western Europe gets a worse mauling than the USA but not as bad as Eastern Europe.
 
The Soviet Union are unlikely to deliver more than a handful of nuclear weapons to the continental U.S. Chances are the majority of their nuclear weapons of that era wouldn't detonate anyway just as 75% of American Polaris SLBM warheads (roughly the same era) would not detonate.
 
Best place to live might be the Southwest.

To reach SLC, Phoenix or a number of other cities, a Soviet bomber would have to cross wide stretches of desert, where there would be few Americans underneath. So if necessary, a nuclear-tipped missile could be used to destroy the plane.

If things had reached the point where these were being used, populace below would not have been a consideration:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIR-2_Genie


At 1.5Kt effects on the ground would have been negligible anyway, proven by science!
 

Deleted member 94708

Fair enough my thinking is that at least half of what the Soviets could drop on the US would be used, I am personally thinking 150 to 200 targets would mean a very strategic use of nuclear weapons, hitting all military bases and command and control centers and any place capable of making nuclear weapons being hit. I still stand by what I said about coastal cities, the harbors alone make them targets due to the naval situation
They can't hit that number. Frankly, with the reliability of their arsenal as poor as it was they'd be doing extremely well to punch out 30. If they launch an unprovoked first strike that might rise to 50-70.
 
Chances are the majority of their nuclear weapons of that era wouldn't detonate anyway just as 75% of American Polaris SLBM warheads (roughly the same era) would not detonate.
The W47 had an interesting design that accounted for its' extreme unreliability - in any case, ISTR that it was a 50% chance of the missile working, and a 50% chance of the physics package correctly initiating. Even in some of the failures, you'd get a 'fizzle' rather than a loud 'thunk' as the warhead lithobrakes.
 
Gen. Power appears to have been a more aggressive and less controlled version of LeMay, and that saying something!

from some I spoke with at SAC, he wasn't far off from Jack D. Ripper from Dr Strangelove.

"I used to worry about General Power. I used to worry that General Power was not stable. I used to worry about the fact that he had control over so many weapons and weapon systems and could, under certain conditions, launch the force. Back in the days before we had real positive control [i.e., PAL locks], SAC had the power to do a lot of things, and it was in his hands, and he knew it."

— General Horace M. Wade, (at that time subordinate of General Power)

yeesh. Well there you go.

:frown:
 
How bad would Europe be hit? I assume an escalation scenario which is imho the most probable one. Germany would be glassed most probably, but what of peripheral nations like Ireland, Portugal or Greece? Neutrals like Switzerland or Sweden? The attacks would come from IRBM's and bombers I suppose: but how many detonations are we talking about? Can a rough estimate be done, so that we can think of what European cities might have survived? Also, would Israel and its principal Arab enemies be hit?

Germany wouldn't exist anymore. It's obvious that British (London, Manchester and some NATO bases) and French (Paris of course (the SHAPE HQ was near Versailles) but some bases too) locations would be bombed because they have the bomb. Since the NATO headquarters are in Brussels, Belgium would be struck directly too. In my opinion, the countries you've mentionned (in Europe) could be OK, I don't see why they would bomb Greece or Sweden. The risk is; they could be hit by accident by one missile (a miscalculation can happen). After all the bombing, there would be many, MANY, refugees from the destroyed countries.

On the question, would Israel or his neighbours be hit? I have no idea, so... maybe.

(On a personal note, Auxerre won't be hit directly, so I guess I should be okay...)
 
In my opinion, the countries you've mentionned (in Europe) could be OK, I don't see why they would bomb Greece or Sweden.
Any NATO or NATO-leaning (Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Libya) country is liable to have its' airfields used for bomber staging, and will be attacked on these grounds. The Swedish nuclear weapons program - and in 1962, Sweden was considered a strong contender for the fifth nuclear power - also makes them a target. Subject to available weapons, conventional military forces and warmaking industries are potential targets.

The genuine neutrals might get away without being hit directly in 1962, but they'll still get a bad dose of famine, disease, fallout and climatic effects.
 
Any NATO or NATO-leaning (Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Libya) country is liable to have its' airfields used for bomber staging, and will be attacked on these grounds. The Swedish nuclear weapons program - and in 1962, Sweden was considered a strong contender for the fifth nuclear power - also makes them a target. Subject to available weapons, conventional military forces and warmaking industries are potential targets.
The genuine neutrals might get away without being hit directly in 1962, but they'll still get a bad dose of famine, disease, fallout and climatic effects.

Never knew that about Sweden. For Spain, they would likely have been targeted because as you said, Spain is part of NATO, but the US had several bases (Torrejon, near Madrid, I believe) and also a bunch of stations (I'm thinking about the LORAN-C transmitter and the Radio Liberty Antennas in Estartit, North of Barcelona).
Regardless, life in Europe after a nuclear warfare would be very hard (and it's an euphemism).
 
In 1962 wasn't NATO headquarters still in Paris?

And Spain wasn't part of NATO in 1962. Though Portugal was. Still, the Soviets didn't exactly consider Franco's Spain a neutral either.
 
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