If the CSA "wins" in 1864-65 how much would they actually keep?

First off a bit of background for this. Standard PoD that has Joseph E. Johnston not get replaced and thus he's able to keep Atlanta from falling long enough to have Lincoln loose the election. Atlanta does end up falling but lets say it holds out until around Christmas so Sherman isn't able to start his March to the Sea now and will have to wait until the weather improves. I'll admit that even with that by the time McClellan ends up in office the CSA would still barely be hanging on.

However lets just for the sake of it he still agrees to at least try and negotiate a peace with the CSA. Of course one of the major sticking points would be what land gets returned to the CSA and what land doesn't. What would be the maximum and minimum amount of land the CSA could wind up getting back and what would the CSA look like afterwards in those scenario's?
 
At this point the best the CSA hope would be return of the original territory of the eleven seceding states, though they'll probably lose East Tennessee. They certainly won't getting anything else, including West Virginia.
 
The Battle of Westport in October 1864 represented the defeat of the last major Confederate advance into Missouri. Though you still saw bushwhacker activity, it supposedly left the state firmly in union control.

Barring this being butterflied away, I can't see the state being handed back to the CSA. The Missouri River was one of the major gateways to the West and no way would anyone give up this valuable piece of real estate.
 
Worst cast scenario in this situation is that McClellan takes a look at the map and says "Well by Me! The Confederates are all cut up, they have been on their last legs these past two years, only that incompetent Lincoln could not finish the job."

Even at the negotiating table the North have a strong hand, they can walk away and get everything the South can at best hope for the terms outlined by Dementor.

So assuming the South does survive you have the secessionist states, somewhat truncated in the case of Virginia and Tennessee, a weak central government, an impoverished economy, a brutalised workforce and egotistical and battle hardened generals.

Should be fun
 

The Sandman

Banned
Arkansas and Tennessee are probably lost to the CSA in their entirety. Virginia and North Carolina are going to lose territory, as well as Georgia; in the case of the former, it probably gets attached to West Virginia, in the latter two instances, to Tennessee. The part of Mississippi that's actually on the Mississippi might also be lost, to be attached to Arkansas. Louisiana, I'm not sure; if it gets handed back, it's going to be with conditions attached to ensure free navigation of the Mississippi to the Gulf. Various other coastal holdings of the North might also be kept, as well as the Florida Keys.

Basically, the South is getting a peace where they only keep what they still hold, and should feel lucky that they get that much.
 
Once you get a peace treaty and formal boundaries, any insurrections on either side of the line will be suppressed pretty roughly. The argument will be "if you don't like the USA/CSA you can move to the other side of the line" and at this point treason charges will be used against those who resist against the duly constituted governments.

Assuming the CSA "victory" is due to McClellan "letting the wayward sisters go" and not as a result of military roles being reversed, massive European intervention etc I would expect that Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, Indian Territory all remain in the Union in their entirety. Unionist areas in Western North Carolina and Eastern Tennessee and possibly North Alabama, may stay in the USA either attached to W. Virginia or as a new state (Franklin). There may be some local adjustments so that boundaries run along natural boundaries like mountains or rivers. Free navigation of the Mississippi with perhaps some sort of international zone on the west bank of the river at New Orleans is very likely.

The USA may push to keep the Florida Keys, basically unpopulated but always occupied by the Union, and the forts there. I expect the USA will want to keep Fortress Monroe and the Virginia part of the DELMARVA peninsula since this would "internationalize" Chesapeake Bay and allow for access by water to D.C. without the need to go through completely Confederate territory. The USA may want to keep a srtip of Northern Virginia, attaching it to Maryland or West Virginia, so as to keep D.C. from being right on the border and under CSA guns.

Keeping all of Tennessee and Arkansas not in the cards, for the USA (or CSA) to keep a state or large chunks of one with a heavily hostile population not going to happen.
 
The problem with a negotiated settlement arising from changes in political leadership following the Election of 1864 is that the national mood demanded victory or "peace with honor". No "honorable peace", as the Northern public understands it, is going to give the Confederacy the antebellum borders of the eleven seceding states. (Minus West Virginia, natch.) All of the blood and treasure expended in the name of Unionism means nothing if, for instance, Tennessee is allowed to leave despite the Union's total reconquest of it.

The borders of a negotiated peace are going to have to provide the U.S. with upside, through territorial retention or further the North's new-found national interests, or if necessary, both. One would expect the Union's strategic priorities to be something like this:
1) Secure the national capital from menace by obtaining a sizable hinterland south and west of the Potomac;
2) Secure the Chesapeake Bay as a Northern lake;
3) Guarantee commercial access of the United States to the Lower Mississippi;
4) Obtain as defensible of national frontiers as possible; and
5) Do whatever else can be done to keep the Confederacy as weak as possible.

In terms of territorial adjustments, I'd think the Union -- if it were objective and not fueled by Copperhead sympathy for the plight of the South -- would be looking at a list of demands in this ballpark:
1) West Virginia and Tennessee are ceded to the Union.
2) All of Virginia north of the Rappahannock ceded to the Union.
3) All of the Virginian Chesapeake Bay coast south to Norfolk is ceded to the Union; while Norfolk remains Confederate, Forts Wool and Monroe remain Northern.
4) The 12-15 counties in the Virginia Panhandle are ceded to the Union.
5) Arkansas is partitioned more or less along the line of the Arkansas River.
6) Indian Territory is partitioned more or less along the lines of the Arkansas and Canadian Rivers, with the final border lopping off parts of the Texas Panhandle as necessary to create a flush border.
7) New Orleans is to be retained as a Union territory or, failing that, made an independent city-state with its independence mutually guaranteed by the North and South.
8) The Lower Mississippi is to be demilitarized and the freedom of navigation for the Union is to be guaranteed.
9) There is to be a prohibition on construction of fortifications along the Lower Mississippi or, failing that, significant restrictions upon their number and strength.

Those terms create a weak but viable Confederacy, which is really the best that can be hoped for. Given that the North in this scenario still controls the Mississippi and controls Georgia as far south as Atlanta, the Union could be more aggressive in its expectations and say that anything west of the Mississippi (as well as the opposite bank of the Mississippi itself) is theirs, while still extracting major pieces from Virginia towards the goals of securing Washington and the Chesapeake.
 

jahenders

Banned
I think that sounds pretty reasonable, with a few additions:
1) I think the treaty would also include a non-aggression pact that neither the USA nor CSA would ally with enemies of the other in wartime.

2) A secession clause that would give the states of the CSA the right to secede from the CSA and petition the US to rejoin. However, CSA would be expressly forbidden from aiding, encouraging, or supporting any revolt or secession by a state of the USA.

3) I could see a strong call for reparations to be paid by the South, with additional land held until paid. If so, it could be used as thinly veiled move toward abolition. For instance, the amount could be ~$2B, but each slave (who was still held IN THE SOUTH at the end of the war) given in recompense could have an exaggerated value such that they were by far the best way to pay. That is, an adult male slave notionally worth $1K in 1865 might be valued at $2K-3K if delivered in good condition to a Northern reparation payment point. So, in essence, the North would be buying freedom for many slaves still in the South by taking them to freedom instead of reparations that would be hard for the South to pay. Depending on how the CSA chooses to pay, that could serve to "punish" slaveholders the most.

In any case, the CSA that's left would be fairly devastated, broke, and politically troubled. They might be hard pressed to fully "mesh" as a country, especially since some people/states would certainly blame others (like S Carolina) for their woes.

They'd likely also see Northern fortunes grow while theirs diminished by effects of trade, tariffs, taxes, etc.

I could see a few CSA states breaking off after a decade or so and possibly petitioning to join the US.

The problem with a negotiated settlement arising from changes in political leadership following the Election of 1864 is that the national mood demanded victory or "peace with honor". No "honorable peace", as the Northern public understands it, is going to give the Confederacy the antebellum borders of the eleven seceding states. (Minus West Virginia, natch.) All of the blood and treasure expended in the name of Unionism means nothing if, for instance, Tennessee is allowed to leave despite the Union's total reconquest of it.

The borders of a negotiated peace are going to have to provide the U.S. with upside, through territorial retention or further the North's new-found national interests, or if necessary, both. One would expect the Union's strategic priorities to be something like this:
1) Secure the national capital from menace by obtaining a sizable hinterland south and west of the Potomac;
2) Secure the Chesapeake Bay as a Northern lake;
3) Guarantee commercial access of the United States to the Lower Mississippi;
4) Obtain as defensible of national frontiers as possible; and
5) Do whatever else can be done to keep the Confederacy as weak as possible.

In terms of territorial adjustments, I'd think the Union -- if it were objective and not fueled by Copperhead sympathy for the plight of the South -- would be looking at a list of demands in this ballpark:
1) West Virginia and Tennessee are ceded to the Union.
2) All of Virginia north of the Rappahannock ceded to the Union.
3) All of the Virginian Chesapeake Bay coast south to Norfolk is ceded to the Union; while Norfolk remains Confederate, Forts Wool and Monroe remain Northern.
4) The 12-15 counties in the Virginia Panhandle are ceded to the Union.
5) Arkansas is partitioned more or less along the line of the Arkansas River.
6) Indian Territory is partitioned more or less along the lines of the Arkansas and Canadian Rivers, with the final border lopping off parts of the Texas Panhandle as necessary to create a flush border.
7) New Orleans is to be retained as a Union territory or, failing that, made an independent city-state with its independence mutually guaranteed by the North and South.
8) The Lower Mississippi is to be demilitarized and the freedom of navigation for the Union is to be guaranteed.
9) There is to be a prohibition on construction of fortifications along the Lower Mississippi or, failing that, significant restrictions upon their number and strength.

Those terms create a weak but viable Confederacy, which is really the best that can be hoped for. Given that the North in this scenario still controls the Mississippi and controls Georgia as far south as Atlanta, the Union could be more aggressive in its expectations and say that anything west of the Mississippi (as well as the opposite bank of the Mississippi itself) is theirs, while still extracting major pieces from Virginia towards the goals of securing Washington and the Chesapeake.
 
Whatever the Union is willing to give them.

The Confederacy holds no cards at this point and their position is crumbling. Atlanta may be held, but its vulnerable. Atlanta is also way deep in Confederate territory, and its not a victory entirely denied to the Union--it is a matter of time and both sides see it.

Historically, McClellan wanted to win the war by different means. He'd have it his way and he'd win it his way. Getting someone like Horatio Seymour or Clement Vallandigham in the White House is a critical start.

Even then, the President of the United States is still supposed to support the interests of the USA. They owe nothing to the Confederate States and a peace deal that grants part of them independence is essentially the end of any responsibility for their well being.

The Union has the military power to do it, the leadership has every reason to support it, and I think the people would support it if the Union could WIN this treaty.

This is not going to be a nice, friendly treaty that gets floated around here of the Confederacy getting everything they want with a side of vanilla ice cream. Nor will it be a legitimate compromise of two nations that intend to form a long term relationship.

It will be a Carthaginian Peace designed to:

1. Make the seceding nation fail.
2. Claim victory as a result of the peace negotiations
3. Get the presidential peace dealer re-elected.
4. Reduce the considerable losses and costs of the Civil War.

========================================
The USA claims all of Virginia on grounds that West Virginia IS Virginia. Current military lines will be held, the Shenandoah Valley remains in Union Hands.

Appalachia is given to the United States. This region cuts across most of the Southern States, but its largely Unionist. Further, a perimeter around this area for US Defensive purposes is claimed as well.

Tennessee is given to the United States.
Mississippi and Louisiana and Arkansas are given to the United States..
Florida is jointly administered by both the USA and the Confederacy.
Unionist Regions of Texas are given to the United States.

The Confederate States accepts 50% of all US Debts prior to the Civil War, and must also pay full market value for federal property seized.

The Union grants amnesty to all contrabands, USCT and escaped slaves.

The Confederacy must also renounce all claims to these regions, as well as the Missouri, Kentucky ordinances of secession. I think it would be interesting as well to insist on revoking Virginia's ordinance of secession and forcing "South Virginia" to re-secede.

In Exchange:
The Union will guarantee a land route for the purposes of interstate trade with Texas.
The Union will lift the Blockade, with the understanding that it will have naval bases in Florida.
All PoWs, Confederate and Union, will be returned home.


The Confederacy can reject these terms, but if they do so, the US President can claim to have sincerely attempted peace and honored his obligations to try for them. It is one matter for the US President to consider reasonable terms given his position, another entirely for them to give away the deck and throw the war for the Confederacy.

If the Confederates accept the offer, this US President will watch as "volunteers" from the Union continue to support slave rebellions all across the South, as the Confederate States slowly collapse owing to ever increasing taxes, hyperinflating currency, and a Civil War of its own raging on its own.

I'm not fully sure what happens when people like Garrison and Fredrick Douglas decide that they can bring the Confederacy down for good by collecting donations that are translated into weapons for slaves and freedom fighters in the South.

The Confederacy won't survive, and that's entirely intentional. Milked dry by US Demands for payment, stuck in a civil war of its own and running low on manpower, the Confederacy finally collapses when poor Whites start joining the riots against lack of food, the great burden placed on them and their leaders fighting for landowners that aren't them.

They ask for, and are approved, as US Territories.
 
West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana would remain part of the Union. There is also likely some deal involving Mississippi and Alabama. Northern Alabama has a lot of pro-Union settlement, and the state of Mississippi is crawling with Union troops. Either all of Mississippi goes Union while Alabama is handed to CSA, or some deal is made where northern half of AL and MS remain with the Union and the southern half stays CSA. Some leeway is needed as much of Louisiana is outside Federal country and some negotiation and transfer will be needed.
 
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