If the Confederacy won the war, what chances are there that a few decades later reunification occurs? What are the ramifications?
If the Confederacy won the war, what chances are there that a few decades later reunification occurs? What are the ramifications?
If the Confederacy won the war, what chances are there that a few decades later reunification occurs? What are the ramifications?
Reunification is only happening by force of arms in this scenario. The violence and bitterness of the Civil War will have left wounds too deep to be healed in one generation. Couple that with racial and class divides on both sides of the border and its probably (IMHO) a toxic brew that leads to another war within a generation absent some sort of external threat.
Certainly though pro-Union regions as well as African-Americans would help the North. This does help reunification chances.
How likely would the Union try to force the South back into the country around 3-4 decades after the war? The Industrial differences would be stark, unless the South starts mass industrialization (cannot see how they would compete with the North though, especially with the agrarian planter class in charge).
The pro Union regions (East Tennessee, part of Texas, sections of North Carolina)
The pro Union regions (East Tennessee, part of Texas, sections of North Carolina) were largely drowned out by the pro-secessionists in numbers, and through violence. In the work of about a generation those who don't emigrate will probably be at worst only grudgingly Confederate, with some deep down sympathy for the Union. Once the first real election goes through, those who remain will probably be largely content with their new lot.
African Americans in the CSA will be at best second class citizens with no right to vote, so their opinion won't count.
I meant more assisting American troops when America invades places. If well organized, a third of the population rioting en masse would disrupt the Confederate war machine heavily.
What about if pro-Union Americans are assaulted and the US population is getting sick and tired of pro-Union Southerners being attacked by Confederate mobs?
CSA ideology would indeed be able to condemn them, as unlike the US Constitution, the Confederacy is explicitly described as permanent, thus precluding legal secession. Moreover, the costs of maintaining slave patrols are mostly borne by the locals, not the government; in exchange for the planters' patronage, non-slaveholders served on slave patrols as a kind of civic duty, and understood the importance of slavery in upholding the South's prosperity. The Underground Railroad is really a paper tiger; the number of slaves who actually escaped was pretty marginal, after all, and never formed an existential threat to slavery as an American institution.I think it's perfectly possible for southerners to maintain a state identity over a CSA one, especially if the CSA becomes a clusterfuck we all think is likely. Eventually, the exuberant cost of maintaining a police state to stop the underground railroad will be too high for border states and they will want to end slavery, even if they have to go through economic collapse first. I can see some states seceding for readmission. CSA ideology also wouldn't be able to stop them, and they would face a thrashing from the USA if ihey tried.
While the deep south would take longer, I certainly think it's possible 50-100 years down the line, given a precedent has been set. Especially if the border states which switched turn out to be substantially wealthier than the CSA.
Hitler was born 30 years after the ACW started. In any ATL he doesn’t exist.Assuming ITTL that he came to power as he did IOTL, would the threat of Hitler cause re-
unification?
OK, here's a counter- question in this area to
throw out to my fellow posters:
Assuming ITTL that he came to power as he did IOTL, would the threat of Hitler cause re-
unification? Or @ least a CSA- USA alliance
which possibly could have led to reunification
down the road? (Remember, IOTL Hitler
actually managed to get Churchill, Roosevelt,
& Stalin- three quite dissimilar people!- to all
line up against him)