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If the Central Powers win World War I, how likely is WWII to eventually occur/break out?

As for my own thoughts on this, in addition to looking at the post-WWI peace settlement in this TL, we should also see whether or not a victorious Imperial Germany would be able to build nuclear weapons before its enemies (likely Russia plus Britain plus the U.S.) feel sufficiently confident that they can win a new World War against Germany. (For the record, I am presuming that a victorious Germany will feel sufficiently confident to try increasing its influence in the Western Hemisphere--as a part of Kaiser Bill's Weltpolitik--and thus to piss off the U.S. in the process.)

Basically, a Central Powers WWI victory might result in Brest-Litovsk-style territorial losses for Russia (since the logic of Brest-Litovsk--specifically weakening Russia in order to reduce its potential as a future threat and competitor to Germany--will still be there even without Hindenburg and Ludendorff and without the Bolsheviks). This (which includes the loss of oil-rich Baku; indeed, the large oil reserves in Siberia weren't discovered yet), combined with the loss of French loans (due to the loss of ion ore-rich Briey-Longwy as well as due to the war reparations that Germany will force France to pay), will cause Russia to need a lot of time to recover as well as to seek large-scale loans from elsewhere--very possibly from Britain and/or from the United States. In turn, this means that--short of a collapse in Germany itself--Russia will be unlikely to seek revenge on Germany in a Central-Powers-WWI-victory scenario for a while (due to its weaker strength relative to Germany). (Also, for the record, even if the Bolsheviks are still able to come to power in Russia in 1917 in this TL, I am presuming that Germany will quickly overthrow them if/after it wins WWI in this TL.)

Of course, an interesting question is this--after it becomes clear that Persia and/or Saudi Arabia has a lot of oil, would Germany be willing to (with the help of its Ottoman allies, that is) try conquering these areas before they fall under Russo-Anglo-American influence? Indeed, even without the oil factor, having Germany conquer Persia would create a ring of pro-German states around Russia stretching from the western border of China (specifically Afghanistan) to the Gulf of Finland (specifically Finland and the Baltic states)!

Also, when do you think that Germany will successfully develop nuclear weapons in this TL? After all, if Germany develops nuclear weapons too late in this TL, a recovered Russia could--with British and/or U.S. support--spark a new war with Germany to kick Germany out of the territories that it had previously acquired at Brest-Litovsk!

Anyway, any thoughts on all of this?
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