If the Central Powers Win WWI, How Likely is WWII to Eventually Occur?

So, in other words, it was a tactical move in order to get immediate concessions in exchange for giving Germany flexibility to make a change in regards to this (by force) later, correct?

Correct, though I'm not aware of any evidence that Germany intended to change this later...the fiery reaction to the Turkish-Azeri entry into Baku suggests otherwise. Although there may still be ways to grant the Ottomans their wish.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Correct, though I'm not aware of any evidence that Germany intended to change this later...the fiery reaction to the Turkish-Azeri entry into Baku suggests otherwise.

The option might have still been nice to have if one wants to prevent Russia from eventually recovering and getting too strong, though.

Although there may still be ways to grant the Ottomans their wish.

Such as?
 
A note on Ukraine, with Germany victorious Ukrainian independence is guaranteed. The state will likely be under either Pavlo Skoropadsky or Vasyl von Hapsburg. This state will have a population likely exceeding 30, perhaps 35 million people, aswell as a strong military and industrial base. This state will also receive the Russian Black Sea Fleet, giving it a very powerful Navy. IOTL ~300,000 troops of the Russian Army pledged loyalty to the Ukrainian People's Republic, before being told to go home because socialist utopia's don't need armies. ITTL Ukraine would probably be able to support a very large army, since a large chunk of Tsarist industry was located in Ukraine, aswell as the aforementioned some ~35,000,000 million people. By 1930, and considering how any Russian State is likely to be in poorer shape ITTL (due to RCW which Ukraine would be mostly spared due to B-L) than Ukraine will be a regional power, especially with German investment and military assistance.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
A note on Ukraine, with Germany victorious Ukrainian independence is guaranteed. The state will likely be under either Pavlo Skoropadsky or Vasyl von Hapsburg. This state will have a population likely exceeding 30, perhaps 35 million people, aswell as a strong military and industrial base. This state will also receive the Russian Black Sea Fleet, giving it a very powerful Navy. IOTL ~300,000 troops of the Russian Army pledged loyalty to the Ukrainian People's Republic, before being told to go home because socialist utopia's don't need armies. ITTL Ukraine would probably be able to support a very large army, since a large chunk of Tsarist industry was located in Ukraine, aswell as the aforementioned some ~35,000,000 million people. By 1930, and considering how any Russian State is likely to be in poorer shape ITTL (due to RCW which Ukraine would be mostly spared due to B-L) than Ukraine will be a regional power, especially with German investment and military assistance.
Yeah, this is what I am curious about; after all, if Germany is sufficiently strong to overthrow the Bolsheviks in 1919 in this TL, surely it could gather enough strength to find some Ukrainian nationalists (in Galicia, if necessary) and help them conquer and establish a government in Ukraine, no?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Indeed, even if the Bolsheviks still capture Ukraine in 1919 in this TL, what exactly is to prevent Germany from regathering its strengthen in 1-2 years, overthrow the Bolsheviks, and help some Ukrainian nationalists (which it finds) establish a new Ukrainian state along the way?
 
Well, I suggest you look into OTL Ukrainian War of Independence. It was only lost due to internal divisions with Socialists who had been the ones who originally disbanded the army right before the Bolsheviks invaded.

If Germany wins, than Pavlo Skoropadsky is staying in power. He'll be able to build up his army to larger than 60,000 men and Gendarmes, he'll have a stronger economy, he'll have more equipment, and he'll have more money. They probably won't even need German troops to beat back the Bolsheviks.

After that, the RCW will just play out and Ukraine can grab the Don, Crimea (as OTL), and the Kuban peninsula which was officially joined with the Hetmanate for a period, since the Kuban was majority Ukrainian.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well, I suggest you look into OTL Ukrainian War of Independence. It was only lost due to internal divisions with Socialists who had been the ones who originally disbanded the army right before the Bolsheviks invaded.

So, you think that Ukraine would have successfully repelled the Bolsheviks had it not disbanded its army?

If Germany wins, than Pavlo Skoropadsky is staying in power. He'll be able to build up his army to larger than 60,000 men and Gendarmes, he'll have a stronger economy, he'll have more equipment, and he'll have more money. They probably won't even need German troops to beat back the Bolsheviks.

How popular was Skoropadsky among the Ukrainian people, though?

After that, the RCW will just play out and Ukraine can grab the Don, Crimea (as OTL), and the Kuban peninsula which was officially joined with the Hetmanate for a period, since the Kuban was majority Ukrainian.

So, would Russia see its access to the Black Sea completely cut off, or what?
 
OK; also, though, what about my very last question here?
Assuming they get Baku it would certainly help in the matter but the Turks and Germans were already butting heads during the war, with a German ambassador being none too pleased with a certain Armenian situation.
 
So, you think that Ukraine would have successfully repelled the Bolsheviks had it not disbanded its army?



How popular was Skoropadsky among the Ukrainian people, though?



So, would Russia see its access to the Black Sea completely cut off, or what?


Sure. OTL Only 15,000 militia were available, whereas ITTL they'll have at the least 150,000 troops. Many of whom where under Pavlo Skoropadsky's personal command.

Because of German demands for grain and his pro landlord stance not very popular. However, if Germany wins, the Germans will withdraw and in all likelihood he'll be somewhat replaced with Vasyl von Hapsburg (or Vasyl will just launch a coup, he had the support and legitimacy), even if he is kept around, the relaxation of policies is inevitable one way or another. This would probably work in the long run.

Yup, 'bout fucking time. They might get part of the Black sea depending on if the Russians take Georgia or how much of the Kuban Ukraine decides to keep. Which is likely to be most if not all of it IMO. Georgia is up in the air though, I don't enough to say definitively if they could stay independent. My guess, is that they go under Ottoman influence though, which means, they'll stay somewhat independent, at least from Russia.
 
The option might have still been nice to have if one wants to prevent Russia from eventually recovering and getting too strong, though.

Such as?

If Germany does succesfully overthrow the Bolsheviks, they can afford to ignore the agreement and allow the Ottomans and/or Azeris to have Baku anyway. The success and plausibility of this approach depends on how big the German-Ottoman rift can get in the time before Germany turns against the Bolsheviks.
Also, out of curiosity--do you agree with Wiking's here points in regards to Ukraine?

Kind of...I believe the original Ukrainian republic was viable, but the Hetmanate was a political catastrophe widely despised by its people. With the support of a victorious Germany, it can last, but it will still be plagued by massive problems. Thezerech's vision of Ukraine's future is interesting but rather optimistic - is Germany going to allow a random coup in its backyard? Is the Habsburg empire going to allow one of its own archdukes to surprise Berlin with such a huge slap in the face?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If Germany does succesfully overthrow the Bolsheviks, they can afford to ignore the agreement and allow the Ottomans and/or Azeris to have Baku anyway. The success and plausibility of this approach depends on how big the German-Ottoman rift can get in the time before Germany turns against the Bolsheviks.

OK; also, though, wouldn't Germany turn on the Bolsheviks at the earliest possible opportunity after the end of WWI?

Kind of...I believe the original Ukrainian republic was viable, but the Hetmanate was a political catastrophe widely despised by its people. With the support of a victorious Germany, it can last, but it will still be plagued by massive problems. Thezerech's vision of Ukraine's future is interesting but rather optimistic - is Germany going to allow a random coup in its backyard? Is the Habsburg empire going to allow one of its own archdukes to surprise Berlin with such a huge slap in the face?

Question--was the Hetmanate's army loyal to it? Or was it liable to break-up and suffer widespread desertions as soon as the Hetmanate began weakening?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, the risk of keeping the Bolsheviks in power is that they could encourage Germany's own workers to rebel against the Kaiserreich--something that the Kaiserreich's leadership certainly doesn't want!
 
Kind of...I believe the original Ukrainian republic was viable, but the Hetmanate was a political catastrophe widely despised by its people. With the support of a victorious Germany, it can last, but it will still be plagued by massive problems. Thezerech's vision of Ukraine's future is interesting but rather optimistic - is Germany going to allow a random coup in its backyard? Is the Habsburg empire going to allow one of its own archdukes to surprise Berlin with such a huge slap in the face?

The Germans aren't going to even really be able to stop it, they wanted Vasyl's father as King of Poland (by far the best option), the Poles wanted him too, more than any other option. Vasyl himself was the most popular man in the entire country. The only reason he was out for most of the war was because he had TB IIRC, which necessitated treatment. He was outside of Ukraine before the end of the war sick. If the CP win, his temporary illness won't be a factor, though since this is alternate history and we can just butterfly it away.

The coup or some compromise is literally inevitable. Skoropadsky was not stupid and after the fall of the Directorate did compromise with Vasyl von Hapsburg although by that point it was far too late, for either. Skoropadsky himself was only really hated enough to be overthrown after the stupid decision which objectively led to his downfall, basically Pereyaslav 2.0. ITTL He will certainly not go for the declaration, with the end of the war and a compromise with Vasyl (in which he probably ends up as King/Hetman) he will likely retain some power, especially over the army. Skoropadsky himself was actually a rather good general, and managed to build up a Ukrainian state IOTL in 1918 out of basically nothing through sheer will and determination. Only forced to work with the Russians because the Socialists were too block headed to understand the country's predicament.
 
Question--was the Hetmanate's army loyal to it? Or was it liable to break-up and suffer widespread desertions as soon as the Hetmanate began weakening?

The Hetmanate's troops often defected. And some of the units that were loyal were actually composed of Russian officers.
The Germans aren't going to even really be able to stop it, they wanted Vasyl's father as King of Poland (by far the best option), the Poles wanted him too, more than any other option. Vasyl himself was the most popular man in the entire country. The only reason he was out for most of the war was because he had TB IIRC, which necessitated treatment. He was outside of Ukraine before the end of the war sick. If the CP win, his temporary illness won't be a factor, though since this is alternate history and we can just butterfly it away.

The coup or some compromise is literally inevitable. Skoropadsky was not stupid and after the fall of the Directorate did compromise with Vasyl von Hapsburg although by that point it was far too late, for either. Skoropadsky himself was only really hated enough to be overthrown after the stupid decision which objectively led to his downfall, basically Pereyaslav 2.0. ITTL He will certainly not go for the declaration, with the end of the war and a compromise with Vasyl (in which he probably ends up as King/Hetman) he will likely retain some power, especially over the army. Skoropadsky himself was actually a rather good general, and managed to build up a Ukrainian state IOTL in 1918 out of basically nothing through sheer will and determination. Only forced to work with the Russians because the Socialists were too block headed to understand the country's predicament.

Can't agree with that - Skoropadsky was pretty damn stupid. The stupid decisions started from day 1 of his regime and forced much of the country into open revolt long before neo-Pereyaslav. The biggest reason he was "forced" to work with Russians (up to and including filling his armies with Russian emigre officers) is that only a tiny minority of Ukrainians could stomach his rabidly reactionary ideas on society, economy and politics. He threatened to reverse pretty much all the achievements made in Ukraine after the fall of the Romanovs.

As for his relations with "Vasyl" - he may have buried the hatchet when he was a powerless exile with nothing to lose; but while Skoropadsky was actually Hetman he worked to expel Vasyl from the country. Not a man inclined to share power.

And IIRC Vasyl's father refused the Polish throne, because he didn't want to be held responsible for the Border Strip plan or any other scandals of CP occupation.
 
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