If the Central Powers Win WWI, How Likely is WWII to Eventually Occur?

CaliGuy

Banned
That is still a battlezone field can end anywhere, ottomans would reclaim if CP won as part of the peace treaty, Iran might not Like UK as that is the end of Anglo Iranian but USA might still be isolationist and not give a damn, maybe even pressure to early Tariff act and presure more exploration in texas and Dakotas.
To clarify--what do you think the fate/future of Persia after the end of WWI will be in this TL?
 

Deleted member 1487

Plus, having an Ottoman Baku is better than having a Russian Baku, no?
Some what, but Germany doesn't want to have it's oil controlled by a foreign power, even a nominally allied one. Germany was about outright control, especially after WW1 radicalized opinions.
 
To clarify--what do you think the fate/future of Persia after the end of WWI will be in this TL?
Not much different that OTL, when Germany will Finish Berlin-Bagdag and maybe if British try to use persia in a proto iran-iraq war but i think the persian, smelling blood in the water would demand more money for their oil concession and maybe even invite new powers to the mix, depend, in short term if anglo iranian got 50-50 with british havign to pay more...that would be normal, germany will be happy with Romania, Baku and whatever they find in Ottoman empire
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Some what, but Germany doesn't want to have it's oil controlled by a foreign power, even a nominally allied one. Germany was about outright control, especially after WW1 radicalized opinions.
Sometimes sacrifices need to be made, though; after all, you yourself said that Germany will be overstretched by a Central Powers WWI victory in 1917-1918.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, honestly, in regards to Ukraine, giving Ukraine genuine (as opposed to nominal) independence might very well be a massively smart move on Germany's part; after all, it would:

1. Permanently secure the friendship and alliance of the Ukrainian people (about 35-40 million in total).
2. Allow Germany to avoid stationing large numbers of troops in Ukraine (after all, Ukraine will have its own army).
3. Create a new German ally in Eastern Europe which is almost as populous as Austria-Hungary but without A-H's ethnic problems.
4. Reduce the risk of Russia ever undoing the Brest-Litovsk Treaty; after all, even excluding both Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire, Germany + Ukraine should have a combined population (100-105 million) which will be about as large as Russia's total population after Brest-Litovsk. :)
 

Deleted member 1487

Sometimes sacrifices need to be made, though; after all, you yourself said that Germany will be overstretched by a Central Powers WWI victory in 1917-1918.
Sure. What is likely to happen is they try to hold it, things go bad in the area and they have to pull out and have worsened relations with the Ottomans:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Baku
They wanted it to due to the Turkoman population in the area. Plus there is the Bolshies to deal with too all over the former parts of Russia; if it goes into 1918 and the October Revolution happens (OTL minus the US due to H-L not willing to accept what the negotiations are turning out in 1917), then the entire area will be a mess. Ukraine too. If Ukraine goes tits up then the Germans cannot supply the Caucasus. Likely they will have to cede the area at some point and will be pissy about it because it makes them look weak. Plus the Ottomans will still have to deal with the Bolsheviks and realities of trying to hold their rotting empire together while conquering new lands, all while the Brits are sitting on the Muslim Holy Land.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrai...nce#German_intervention_and_Hetmanate.2C_1918
 

Deleted member 1487

Also, honestly, in regards to Ukraine, giving Ukraine genuine (as opposed to nominal) independence might very well be a massively smart move on Germany's part; after all, it would:

1. Permanently secure the friendship and alliance of the Ukrainian people (about 35-40 million in total).
2. Allow Germany to avoid stationing large numbers of troops in Ukraine (after all, Ukraine will have its own army).
3. Create a new German ally in Eastern Europe which is almost as populous as Austria-Hungary but without A-H's ethnic problems.
4. Reduce the risk of Russia ever undoing the Brest-Litovsk Treaty; after all, even excluding both Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire, Germany + Ukraine should have a combined population (100-105 million) which will be about as large as Russia's total population after Brest-Litovsk. :)
That's a nice thought, but the realities of German opinion at the time was to have a puppet regime in place. It did not really last even with their support:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrai...nce#German_intervention_and_Hetmanate.2C_1918
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That's a nice thought, but the realities of German opinion at the time was to have a puppet regime in place. It did not really last even with their support:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrai...nce#German_intervention_and_Hetmanate.2C_1918
Yes, but if Germany's leadership realizes that Germany is overextended, wouldn't a genuinely independent Ukraine be the lesser evil in comparison to a Russian reconquest of Ukraine? After all, a genuinely independent Ukraine would still ensure that Ukraine's population and resources wouldn't become a part of Russia again!
 
Plus, having an Ottoman Baku is better than having a Russian Baku, no?

As far as Germany was concerned - no. There was a huge diplomatic stink between Berlin and Constantinople when the final treaty of Brest-Litovsk still assigned Baku to the Bolsheviks, while the Ottomans hoped to establish their own hegemony there.

If it isn't resolved, I can easily imagine the Ottomans developing their own ideas of "mutilated victory" not unlike OTL's Italy.
 

Deleted member 1487

Yes, but if Germany's leadership realizes that Germany is overextended, wouldn't a genuinely independent Ukraine be the lesser evil in comparison to a Russian reconquest of Ukraine? After all, a genuinely independent Ukraine would still ensure that Ukraine's population and resources wouldn't become a part of Russia again!
An independent Ukraine isn't a give without German intervention. Likely it goes back into the fold with Russia. Read up on the Ukrainian war for independence, there was not really a true vacuum for Ukraine to figure out for itself what was going on, but rather a ton of factions and outside intervention. German intervention didn't even offset Russian/Bolshevik intervention.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Sure. What is likely to happen is they try to hold it, things go bad in the area and they have to pull out and have worsened relations with the Ottomans:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Baku

Can't German-Ottoman relations be repaired later on, though?

They wanted it to due to the Turkoman population in the area.

Turkoman or Azeri? Turkoman, correct? (I just want to double-check about this.)

Plus there is the Bolshies to deal with too all over the former parts of Russia; if it goes into 1918 and the October Revolution happens (OTL minus the US due to H-L not willing to accept what the negotiations are turning out in 1917), then the entire area will be a mess. Ukraine too.

OK.

If Ukraine goes tits up then the Germans cannot supply the Caucasus. Likely they will have to cede the area at some point and will be pissy about it because it makes them look weak.

Cede it to the Ottomans?

Plus the Ottomans will still have to deal with the Bolsheviks and realities of trying to hold their rotting empire together while conquering new lands, all while the Brits are sitting on the Muslim Holy Land.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrai...nce#German_intervention_and_Hetmanate.2C_1918

Two questions:

1. Wouldn't a cutoff of U.S. loans to Britain compromise its position in the Holy Land (and elsewhere)?
2. Didn't the Germans plan on overthrowing the Bolsheviks if/after they won World War I?[/quote]
 

CaliGuy

Banned
An independent Ukraine isn't a give without German intervention. Likely it goes back into the fold with Russia. Read up on the Ukrainian war for independence, there was not really a true vacuum for Ukraine to figure out for itself what was going on, but rather a ton of factions and outside intervention. German intervention didn't even offset Russian/Bolshevik intervention.
I will make sure to read up on this! :)

However, wasn't Ukrainian independence initially declared by a democratic Ukrainian Rada (Parliament) in January 1918?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
As far as Germany was concerned - no. There was a huge diplomatic stink between Berlin and Constantinople when the final treaty of Brest-Litovsk still assigned Baku to the Bolsheviks, while the Ottomans hoped to establish their own hegemony there.

If it isn't resolved, I can easily imagine the Ottomans developing their own ideas of "mutilated victory" not unlike OTL's Italy.
Why the heck did Germany allow the Bolsheviks to keep Baku in the B-L Treaty in the first place, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, though, can someone please give me a quick answer right now as to why exactly the Ukrainians failed to achieve the same level of unity in 1918-1921 that the Poles and the Balts did?
 
If the CP win WW1 then Germany will be a superpower, thus any total war against her will have to be waged by at least one other superpower. The only candidates for superpower are the US and a recovered Russia, so a second round will have to include one of those.
 
Why the heck did Germany allow the Bolsheviks to keep Baku in the B-L Treaty in the first place, though?

The Germans needed oil not just in the long term, but ASAP. In exchange for that promise, they were able to demand 25% of Baku's oil output (among other concessions) from the Bolsheviks.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The Germans needed oil not just in the long term, but ASAP. In exchange for that promise, they were able to demand 25% of Baku's oil output (among other concessions) from the Bolsheviks.
So, in other words, it was a tactical move in order to get immediate concessions in exchange for giving Germany flexibility to make a change in regards to this (by force) later, correct?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If the CP win WW1 then Germany will be a superpower, thus any total war against her will have to be waged by at least one other superpower. The only candidates for superpower are the US and a recovered Russia, so a second round will have to include one of those.
Agreed; indeed, perhaps not even one of those, but both of those.
 
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