If the Capets die out early...

Elfwine

Specifically, if Philip Augustus dies young (between 1190 and 1200 or so), and ill fortunate leads to the main line of the Capets dying out about the time the Hohenstaufens did OTL (1254, as Conradin never amounted to anything but a vain hope).

Would France return to elective monarchy to resolve the situation? There are the Capets of Dreux, but I don't know if they (going by OTL, the Dreux heir is thirteen in 1254) would be accepted.

Looking at the situation of the monarchy:
Louis (VIII) seems unlikely to be as skilled politically as his father if he comes to the throne so early and uninfluenced by dad's good example. Not to say he'd be terrible, but I doubt he'd do as well.

And his son/s (if he has one) might not be as good as Saint Louis was OTL.

But this is mostly guesswork, and I know at least some members know more about medieval France than I do.

So, anyone have any thoughts?
 

Don_Giorgio

Perhaps they could invoke Semi-salic law to allow succession through female line... So in such a case the throne would go to Henry II of Champagne son of Marie Capet daughter of Louis VII but since Marie's parents marriage was annuled i highly doubt it... In that case the throne would have gone to Alys Capet (Alys was betrothed to Richard the Lionheart at the time and if Philipe dies before 1191 then Richard might have taken the chance to unite the crowns of England and France)
 

Elfwine

Don_Giorgio said:
Perhaps they could invoke Semi-salic law to allow succession through female line... So in such a case the throne would go to Henry II of Champagne son of Marie Capet daughter of Louis VII but since Marie's parents marriage was annuled i highly doubt it... In that case the throne would have gone to Alys Capet (Alys was betrothed to Richard the Lionheart at the time and if Philipe dies before 1191 then Richard might have taken the chance to unite the crowns of England and France)
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Well, if they survive to 1254, Louis lives, and possibly sons of his.

Grey Wolf said:
Oh, it says Capets not Carpets, I was intrigued!

Has the Burgundian line died out?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
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That would be an interesting thread... :D

Presumably not (I'm looking at this based on nothing more than just the main royal line going extinct to start), just the main line. So that would be (again picking OTL for simplicity, though obviously the actual scenario is more complicated)

HUGUES de Bourgogne, son of EUDES III Duke of Burgundy & his second wife Alix de Vergy (9 Mar 1213-château de Villaines-en-Duesmois, Côtes d'Or 27 or 30 Oct 1272, bur Abbaye de Cîteaux).

How strong is their claim?

I looked at this when just naming the Dreux line as "surviving Capets":

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=4395211&postcount=2

This would be several generations later than this scenario, at least in terms of the direct line dying off.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

The Burgundians had a strong claim not so much by closeness of descent to the latest king, but by closeness of descent to the earliest. Whilst this is not how the descent of kingship usually goes, it is similar to tanistry, and they were the most powerful nobles in the kingdom for generations, leading for example the Albigensian Crusade (original version).

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Elfwine

Grey Wolf said:
The Burgundians had a strong claim not so much by closeness of descent to the latest king, but by closeness of descent to the earliest. Whilst this is not how the descent of kingship usually goes, it is similar to tanistry, and they were the most powerful nobles in the kingdom for generations, leading for example the Albigensian Crusade (original version).

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
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That sounds like a potentially not-so-good situation, depending on how much the Burgundians are disliked or distrusted by the other great lords - or if someone else is in a stronger position for the nonce (the duke being underaged, for instance).
 

Analytical Engine

I thought the house of Blois had a more direct (i.e. male-line) conection to the Capets?

But then, I'm not an expert in French royal genealogy... :eek:
 
The Professor

The Professor

Well in 1185 the the French Royal Inheritance is:

Philippe’s heirs by agnatic primogeniture (nearest male by direct male descent) were:
Robert II, Comte de Dreux. Son of Louis VII’s brother Robert I de Dreux. He had recently married Yolande de Coucy, daughter of Agnes of Hainaut, who was sister to Baldwin V of Hainaut
Pierre II de Courtenay. Son of Louis VII’s brother Pierre de Courtenay

Philippe's heirs by cognatic primogeniture (nearest male by direct male or female descent) were:
Henri II, Comte de Champagne. 12 year old son of Marie, who is the first daughter of Eleanor and Louis VII, and of Henri I, who is brother of Philippe’s mother Adele/Alice de Champagne
Louis de Blois. 13 year old son of Alix, who is the second daughter of Eleanor and Louis VII, and of Thibaud V Comte de Blois, who is brother to Henri I and Philippe’s mother Adele/Alice de Champagne

The following nobles had a stake in the succession:
Henry, Count of Anjou, Maine, and Touraine etc, King of England. The most powerful man in France and married to Louis VII’s former wife Eleanor, Duchess of Aquitaine
Richard, Duke of Aquitaine (invested by his mother c.1168), son of Henry II, King of England. Betrothed to Philippe's sister Alais
Baldwin V, Count of Hainaut. Father of Philippe’s wife Isabelle of Hainaut and father of Henri and Baldwin, the future Latin Emperors of Romania. He is regarded as a descendant of Charlemagne
Philip, Count of Flanders, and Count of Vermandois since his wife’s death in 1183. Uncle of Isabelle of Hainaut; brother-in-law of Baldwin V
Thibaud V, Comte de Blois. Brother of Henri I de Champagne. Married to Alice, daughter of Eleanor and Louis VII. Father of Louis de Blois.
Eleanor, Duchess of Aquitaine. Former wife of Louis VII. Estranged from her husband Henry II, King of England
 

Elfwine

The Professor said:
Well in 1185 the the French Royal Inheritance is:

Philippe’s heirs by agnatic primogeniture (nearest male by direct male descent) were:
Robert II, Comte de Dreux. Son of Louis VII’s brother Robert I de Dreux. He had recently married Yolande de Coucy, daughter of Agnes of Hainaut, who was sister to Baldwin V of Hainaut
Pierre II de Courtenay. Son of Louis VII’s brother Pierre de Courtenay

Philippe's heirs by cognatic primogeniture (nearest male by direct male or female descent) were:
Henri II, Comte de Champagne. 12 year old son of Marie, who is the first daughter of Eleanor and Louis VII, and of Henri I, who is brother of Philippe’s mother Adele/Alice de Champagne
Louis de Blois. 13 year old son of Alix, who is the second daughter of Eleanor and Louis VII, and of Thibaud V Comte de Blois, who is brother to Henri I and Philippe’s mother Adele/Alice de Champagne

The following nobles had a stake in the succession:
Henry, Count of Anjou, Maine, and Touraine etc, King of England. The most powerful man in France and married to Louis VII’s former wife Eleanor, Duchess of Aquitaine
Richard, Duke of Aquitaine (invested by his mother c.1168), son of Henry II, King of England. Betrothed to Philippe's sister Alais
Baldwin V, Count of Hainaut. Father of Philippe’s wife Isabelle of Hainaut and father of Henri and Baldwin, the future Latin Emperors of Romania. He is regarded as a descendant of Charlemagne
Philip, Count of Flanders, and Count of Vermandois since his wife’s death in 1183. Uncle of Isabelle of Hainaut; brother-in-law of Baldwin V
Thibaud V, Comte de Blois. Brother of Henri I de Champagne. Married to Alice, daughter of Eleanor and Louis VII. Father of Louis de Blois.
Eleanor, Duchess of Aquitaine. Former wife of Louis VII. Estranged from her husband Henry II, King of England
Click to expand...

So if Philip dies in let's say 1199, with his only heir as a 12 year old Louis, could this (if Louis fails similarly to Frederick II in the HRE OTL) see the bickering possible candidates lead to a collapse of France as a (united) kingdom? Not necessarily immediately, but by the end of the century being disunited.

Richard living longer than OTL - to oversimplify, we swap their fates.
 

Gonzaga

Just a doubt: considering that the marriage of Eleanor and Louis VII was annulled, wouldn't it be used by whoever is married by the other daughters of the king as an excuse to declare their claim invalid as illegitimate?
 

Elfwine

Xgentis said:
12 years old only 2 year of regency it should be fine.
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Yeah. The main problem for Louis is that he lacks Philip's good example and foundations to build on, which means him falling short becomes a little too easy, and if dynastic collapse and centralization failure happen around the same time, things could get ugly.
 

Janprimus

Wendell said:
True, but that would make for them securing the French crown rather more interesting.
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Crusading or an established legitimate prestigious realm? Hmmm I bet that they are on the first ship back to France. ;)

OTOH the position of the house of Dreux is better as the closest male relatives.
 

Faeelin

Elfwine said:
Yeah. The main problem for Louis is that he lacks Philip's good example and foundations to build on, which means him falling short becomes a little too easy, and if dynastic collapse and centralization failure happen around the same time, things could get ugly.
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Hrm. Do you think that France, and not Germany, was the unlikely result? that is, there was no inclination towards centralizing in medieval Europe?
 

Wendell

Janprimus said:
Crusading or an established legitimate prestigious realm? Hmmm I bet that they are on the first ship back to France. ;)

OTOH the position of the house of Dreux is better as the closest male relatives.
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Depending on our precise POD, Pierre de Courtenay could emerge as both Peter I of France and of (Latin) Constanople:eek:
 

Elfwine

Faeelin said:
Hrm. Do you think that France, and not Germany, was the unlikely result? that is, there was no inclination towards centralizing in medieval Europe?
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I would say neither was likely (centralization is hard, and France was fortunate to have a king up for the task). Not so much a lack of inclination as just that overcoming the resistance would require exceptionally capable rulers - nothing beyond what could plausibly happen (it did happen in France OTL), but it not happening would be unsurprising without them.

As an alt-you might say in my timeline (where the HRE pulls together):
"The fact the HRE managed suggests there isn't a trap impossible to break out of, no?"

Having France fare like this (from your Prince of Peace timeline):

Poor France, so far from God, so close to everyone. The interregnum would last until the 1270’s, irreparably damaging the monarchy in France. In Aquitaine would emerge great and free cities, which fought their lords for privileges and won. Normandy and Champagne would remain independent principalities, and the Count of Flanders would, in 14th century, become the lord of much of northern and eastern France. France would spend the next few centuries as a battleground for the armies of the powers of Europe, ravaged by the English, the Germans, the Aragonese, and the Castillians. The crown of France would eventually pass to the Counts of Flanders, but it would in truth be almost worthless.

But, of course, no other outcome could have been possible for France.

is what I'd like France to look like, more or less.
 
The Professor

The Professor

Elfwine said:
So if Philip dies in let's say 1199, with his only heir as a 12 year old Louis, could this (if Louis fails similarly to Frederick II in the HRE OTL) see the bickering possible candidates lead to a collapse of France as a (united) kingdom? Not necessarily immediately, but by the end of the century being disunited.

Richard living longer than OTL - to oversimplify, we swap their fates.
Click to expand...

Hmmm.

Well I could definitely see bickering between the Champagne-Blois and Dreux-Courtenay lines over the regency and who are the closest heir lines. That might destablise things initially.
However if Louis dies then one or the other would centralise authority under them and use that to centralise France.
The best way to decentralise France is to maintain Louis until he has an underage successor followed by a weak one. This should reduce the King of France with the Dukes of France in a similar position to the HR Emperor and Electors.
 
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