I am not sure about this one. Morrocco was a far cry from Granada in population/defensive depth and had comparable tech.Paradoxically the biggest immediate change is in North Africa.
Without the American rush, Spain keeps it's attention on the Reconquestia, and the taking of Morocco.
This is true... which means Japan probably snaps it up.Also without Mexico and Peru, Spain stays out of the Pacific, No Spanish Philippines.
HTG