If the Allies lost at D-Day, how much of Europe would the Soviets have taken?

Think we might see landings in Greece along with Dragoon? Churchill says "told you so" and maybe gets his way, even as an all-British affair?
 
Think we might see landings in Greece along with Dragoon? Churchill says "told you so" and maybe gets his way, even as an all-British affair?

That's... pretty much what happened OTL. Problem is the Soviet advance into the Balkans is gonna render Churchill's basis for such a maneuver rather... unworkable.
 
About the same as OTL. If the D-Day invasion fails, that will free up hundreds of thousands of German troops for the Eastern Front.

Alllied intelligence will do its best to maintain the threat against France (through Double Cross etc), but ultimately the Germans and Hitler will strip the west to a minimum. The actual presence of Soviet forces on Germany's eastern border will matter more than the potential danger from US/UK forces.

In a few months, the US/UK will try again, against weakened defenses, and succeed. (Hmm, maybe the US/UK use Double Cross to persuade the Germans that they have abandoned the Channel invasion, so the Germans will pull out more troops.)

Unless you believe that German forces will hold on the Atlantic coast, or the West Wall, or the Rhine, until Soviet forces literally shoot them in the back, the US/UK will meet the Soviets in central Germany.

There is a wild card in this, and that is Hitler's insistence that German forces never withdraw voluntarily. It was overcome a few time: the north Caucasus and Rzhev salient in 1942-1943; Greece in late 1944. But in 1945, Hitler left large German forces in Courland, Holland, Norway, and Italy while Germany itself was under attack.

But IMO, even Crazy Adolf is not going to leave powerful armies sitting idle in France when Soviet forces are on the Oder.
 
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About the same as OTL. If the D-Day invasion fails, that will free up hundreds of thousands of German troops for the Eastern Front.

Up to a point.

The Germans for a long time believed that Normandy was a diversionary attack, and were waiting for the main attack at the Pas de Calais. It would probably take a couple of months before they would release large numbers of troops to the East.
 
There were threats against The Bourdeux region, Genoa, and Norway via the XXCross agents, at the same time. A pz corps was kept in S France, a infantry corps @ Genoa, and 100,000+ ground combat soldiers in Norway via these threats. Eisenhower told the Deception Committee he'd be happy if the 15th Army stayed north of the Seine for two weeks. After a month the bulk of 15th Army was still north of the Seine.
 
Up to a point.

The Germans for a long time believed that Normandy was a diversionary attack, and were waiting for the main attack at the Pas de Calais. It would probably take a couple of months before they would release large numbers of troops to the East.

The Germans never realized that Normandy was not a diversionary attack; they concluded that the "main attack" never happened because Normandy was unexpectedly successful. This was reinforced by the appearance in Normandy of divisions which had been identified by XX agents (mainly GARBO) as part of FUSAG. This maintained GARBO's credibility, and led to his becoming the Germans' source for V-weapon impact data - which the British used to divert the V-weapons away from central London.

However - If D-Day fails, then the hundreds of thousands of reserve troops the Germans sent to France in OTL June-August 1944 won't be going there.
 
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However - If D-Day fails, then the hundreds of thousands of reserve troops the Germans sent to France in OTL June-August 1944 won't be going there.

Depends on how badly the defense in France & the low countries are damaged, and how great a threat is seen. The OP foes not precisely define how the invasion is defeated, including how long it takes and how damaged the defenders are.

Two scenarios jump out at me.

1. The Allies feel they can make subsequent invasions in 1944 stick, so they switch the deception ops to cause the Germans to believe they cannot and send reserves elsewhere.

2. The Allies choose not to try again in 1944, but use deception ops and commando raids to keep some German reserves in the west.

There are a lot of sub variations of these two. One could trace their paths and forks endlessly.
 
I know it depends on how much of a fiasco Overlord becomes but if it fails does Ike get sacked or forced to resign? If so who is likely to replace him as overall Allied commander? It's a job that requires a lot of political finesse and ability to manage difficult personalities which Ike historically excelled at.
 
Wasn't Dragoon a secondary operation intended to open up the ports of Southern France to assist with the supply situation in Normandy? If Overlord fails what's the impetus for Dragoon? Just to show the Russians that there's a new front in France?

Geographically the Germans still have the advantage of digging into the mountainous terrain of Northern Italy and the Vosages so if Overlord fails the Allies will probably have to try again in the spring of 1945. How much that delays the Soviets with the shifting of forces East is a good question.
Dragoon was two-purposed - logistics (as you say) but also to move some US troops out of Italy and into France.
It was a month after DDay, and not well resisted.
I think they'd still do Dragoon. (1) The French Rail Network was already wrecked by DDay (2) Germans in France still would have been most concentrated at Pas De Calais. (3) But then maybe first attack after Dragoon towards Gascony (Bordeaux) to get ports on the Atlantic and broaden front. (with reinforcements that had been scheduled for Normandy) (4) then Wallies would still have decent chance of getting to Paris/Brussells by Christmas.
 
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