If the Allies lost at D-Day, how much of Europe would the Soviets have taken?

More or less as the title says. If the Allies fail to secure ground in France on D-Day, how does the war change? Obviously the Nazis still lose, but how much longer does the war take, and what territorial changes occur? Also, do the Western Allies have a chance of retaking France?
 
depends they are contained in Normandy and honestly maybe not much there was an invasion in southern France that was making great strides
 
It has to be remembered that as the Red Army continues to maul the Wehrmacht, France becomes easier to invade with each passing month. And contrary to popular opinion, Stalin was not interested in screwing over the West and conquering the whole continent. I'd say that as a worst-case scenario, the Western Allies get France, the Low Countries, Norway, and at least half of Italy.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
It has to be remembered that as the Red Army continues to maul the Wehrmacht, France becomes easier to invade with each passing month. And contrary to popular opinion, Stalin was not interested in screwing over the West and conquering the whole continent. I'd say that as a worst-case scenario, the Western Allies get France, the Low Countries, Norway, and at least half of Italy.
I'm pretty sure they already had more than half of Italy by June 1944.
 

Deleted member 9338

The allies still had landings in southern France and the campaign in Italy. The Soviets May have more but not a big difference
 
Without a front in France, maybe Germany slows down the Russian advance. If the war is still in progress in August, guess who gets hit by The Bomb.
 
Without a front in France, maybe Germany slows down the Russian advance. If the war is still in progress in August, guess who gets hit by The Bomb.

Japan,because even in best case szenarios germany at the time will not have a major city left thats not already rubble,and all of it will be much too close to frontlines to use their new superweapon for the first time there.
 
This really depends on how "D Day" fails. There are a lot of scenarios where this is not a show stopper, & some where it comes close to being a wash.

I'm pretty sure they already had more than half of Italy by June 1944.

Rome was occupied 4 June 1944.

... And contrary to popular opinion, Stalin was not interested in screwing over the West and conquering the whole continent. ..y.

Stalin was unsure he could progress further alone without the western Allies. Sure there are good arguments op BAGRATION would succeed, but getting past Poland and Rumania/Balkans might be difficult if the west Allied threat is truly neutralized.
 
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The big question is how succesful bagration will be with a failed D-day landing.

Given how close BAGRATION was launched there probably not a lot the Germans can reposition to prevent success. Perhaps a late summer or early autumn counter attack might be productive. There is also the question of if Op BAGRATION would be launched were OVERLORD to fail early on. Did the Red Army have a contingency plan for that?
 
Wasn't Dragoon a secondary operation intended to open up the ports of Southern France to assist with the supply situation in Normandy? If Overlord fails what's the impetus for Dragoon? Just to show the Russians that there's a new front in France?

Geographically the Germans still have the advantage of digging into the mountainous terrain of Northern Italy and the Vosages so if Overlord fails the Allies will probably have to try again in the spring of 1945. How much that delays the Soviets with the shifting of forces East is a good question.
 
I'd argue the same amount. The Post-War agreements were already finalized and without the Western Front in 1944 and into early 1945, the Germans would retain sufficient combat power to keep the Soviets at bay into 1945. Come April, the Western Allies will land again and then it's a race to the finish; meeting along the IGB in, say, September or October of 1945.
 
It has to be remembered that as the Red Army continues to maul the Wehrmacht, France becomes easier to invade with each passing month. And contrary to popular opinion, Stalin was not interested in screwing over the West and conquering the whole continent. I'd say that as a worst-case scenario, the Western Allies get France, the Low Countries, Norway, and at least half of Italy.

I'd say worst case, the WAllies get all of Italy (well, save for those bits which went to Yugoslavia, of course. Even leaving aside that the WAllies are already moving north as others have pointed out, the Soviets are fundamentally uninterested in climbing over the Alps.

The big question is how succesful bagration will be with a failed D-day landing.

Well, the Germans will mount a harder counter-blow towards it's end that'll shave off a 100 kilometers in it's gains and give the Red Army some additional losses, but it won't fundamentally alter the prior operations. Likewise, all the German reinforcements that get transferred in from the west are gonna be sucked into patching up the hole left by AGC, so there's no reason to expect the Balkan campaign to go too much different until the Soviets hit Hungary. It'll be the winter fighting in Hungary and Poland that'll see the big differences in Germany not having a western front, but even that's still just a case of slowing the Soviets down by a few months and costing them several hundreds of thousands more men which, given that the Soviets ended the European War with almost one-and-a-half million men still in replacement training, isn't going to fundamentally alter the course of the war. The Germans just don't have the combat power to hold off the Soviets by the summer of '44... they hadn't had it since Stalingrad, really.

Given how close BAGRATION was launched there probably not a lot the Germans can reposition to prevent success. Perhaps a late summer or early autumn counter attack might be productive. There is also the question of if Op BAGRATION would be launched were OVERLORD to fail early on. Did the Red Army have a contingency plan for that?

Conception and planning for Bagration was done in April and May, before D-Day went off, and it's execution was conceived of being totally independent of Overlord's success. The biggest impact on Soviet planning and execution I could see it having is making the Soviets more wary of German reserves showing up in the east towards the end stages of Bagration and decide to reign it in sooner.
 
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The Commies would have pushed West all the way to the Sea. Stalin understood the vital importance of a West Coast Atlantic Ocean Accessible Sea Port. Probably Belgium or Holland. Possibly Denmark.
 
The Commies would have pushed West all the way to the Sea. Stalin understood the vital importance of a West Coast Atlantic Ocean Accessible Sea Port. Probably Belgium or Holland. Possibly Denmark.

Logistically I dont know if the Soviets could have made it that far. I understand they were already pretty stretched by wars end.
 

Geon

Donor
If we assume the June 6th landings were a total disaster, as in such high losses that the troops are withdrawn after 48 hours, it would take a few months to make up the losses of D-Day. There would also likely be a new general replacing Ike who might be more reckless (Patton) or less reckless (Bradley) depending on who is chosen. In any case since weather was a factor I don't see another attempt being made until sometime in spring, 1945.

The big wild card is the landings in Southern France. With no allied front in France could the Germans have contained the landing in the south?

I could easily see this allowing the Russians to not only claim most of Eastern Europe but also quite likely most if not all of Germany. Is there any chance the Soviets could be bargained out of Western Germany somehow if they got that far due to a poorer showing by the Allies?
 
More or less as the title says. If the Allies fail to secure ground in France on D-Day, how does the war change? Obviously the Nazis still lose, but how much longer does the war take, and what territorial changes occur? Also, do the Western Allies have a chance of retaking France?
It seems to me Alien Space Bat that the Allies would fail to secure any ground in France, unless the entire operation is cancelled because intelligence leaks and the Nazis seem to be rushing as many divisions to Normandy as they can.
But in any case, if the Normandy landings are cancelled because of intelligence leaks, or an alien space-bat flips its wings and causes enormous storms in the Channel or something, the United Nations (what Churchill sometimes called the Allied side) still have a front advancing in Italy which had made a major break through just before the original timeline Normandy landings and indeed had captured/liberated Rome.
One way or another, they will break into Southern France at some point. Marseille is too useful, and General de Gaulle's fervour for liberating the French mainland will be too strong to resist.
 
More or less as the title says. If the Allies fail to secure ground in France on D-Day, how does the war change? Obviously the Nazis still lose, but how much longer does the war take, and what territorial changes occur? Also, do the Western Allies have a chance of retaking France?
If D Day fails there's still the later invasion of the south of France and those forces not able to assault Normandy after the failed landings will probably be sent to follow up the landings there. The war may last a little longer and the Russians may end up taking most of Germany but it will make no real difference.
 
Wasn't Dragoon a secondary operation intended to open up the ports of Southern France to assist with the supply situation in Normandy? If Overlord fails what's the impetus for Dragoon? Just to show the Russians that there's a new front in France?
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That's the revived plan. If the amphib fleet is still strong enough, and the defense bled down the DRAGOON Op could still be executed. There's a entire army group on hand for that one, if the assault works and enough port capacity captured. If it works then reinforcements designated for the 12TH & 21 Army Groups could be redirected to 6th AG in S France.
 
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