If the 1968 presidential election gets thrown to Congress

The 1968 election was a three-way race between Richard Nixon (Republican), Hubert Humphrey (Democratic) and George Wallace (American Independent). OTL's result was a massive electoral victory for Nixon -- but he only won 43.4% of the popular vote, and the nationwide popular vote margin between him & Humphrey was only 0.7%. A lot of the states Nixon won were very close races, which means that it's entirely possible that Nixon would fall short of the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the race -- in which case, the election would be thrown to Congress.

Now, the thing about when an election gets thrown to Congress is that the House of Representatives votes in the President -- but each state's delegation gets only one vote between them, no matter how large the state is. Thus if a state delegation is evenly split down the middle, they'd probably have to abstain. So, having looked at the makeup of the 91st United States Congress, I think I can see what the first ballot would look like:

Richard Nixon (Republican) -- 19 states
Hubert Humphrey (Democratic) -- 18 states
George Wallace (American Independent) -- 8 states
[tied] -- 5 states

(The votes for George Wallace are the Democrat-dominated delegations for states where the American Independent Party outpolled the Democratic Party.)

So my question is this: how does this get resolved? Obviously, the first ballot is a deadlock as nobody gets the necessary 26 states' votes to win. But the real question is, on subsequent ballots, what do Wallace's supporters do? Do they eventually cave into party unity and vote for Humphrey, or do they break ranks entirely and vote for Nixon?


(Incidentally, the Senate was majority Democratic, which means that Edmund Muskie easily becomes Vice-President-elect. That means that if the House of Representatives isn't done balloting by Inauguration Day 1969, the country gets Acting President Muskie until they do finally pick a winner.)
 
The 1968 election was a three-way race between Richard Nixon (Republican), Hubert Humphrey (Democratic) and George Wallace (American Independent). OTL's result was a massive electoral victory for Nixon -- but he only won 43.4% of the popular vote, and the nationwide popular vote margin between him & Humphrey was only 0.7%. A lot of the states Nixon won were very close races, which means that it's entirely possible that Nixon would fall short of the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the race -- in which case, the election would be thrown to Congress.

Now, the thing about when an election gets thrown to Congress is that the House of Representatives votes in the President -- but each state's delegation gets only one vote between them, no matter how large the state is. Thus if a state delegation is evenly split down the middle, they'd probably have to abstain. So, having looked at the makeup of the 91st United States Congress, I think I can see what the first ballot would look like:

Richard Nixon (Republican) -- 19 states
Hubert Humphrey (Democratic) -- 18 states
George Wallace (American Independent) -- 8 states
[tied] -- 5 states

(The votes for George Wallace are the Democrat-dominated delegations for states where the American Independent Party outpolled the Democratic Party.)

So my question is this: how does this get resolved? Obviously, the first ballot is a deadlock as nobody gets the necessary 26 states' votes to win. But the real question is, on subsequent ballots, what do Wallace's supporters do? Do they eventually cave into party unity and vote for Humphrey, or do they break ranks entirely and vote for Nixon?


(Incidentally, the Senate was majority Democratic, which means that Edmund Muskie easily becomes Vice-President-elect. That means that if the House of Representatives isn't done balloting by Inauguration Day 1969, the country gets Acting President Muskie until they do finally pick a winner.)

Well, given that ol 'Hubey was supportive of Civil Rights, and that Nixon wasn't exactly friendly towards liberals.......I'd have to go with Nixon, as the majority of those who voted for Wallace were hardcore conservatives who basically would've had no problem seeing this country thrown back to the Stone Age. No way they'd vote for a South Dakota liberal like Humphrey; in this scenario, frankly, the Great Switch would still happen pretty much as it did IOTL.
 
Well, given that ol 'Hubey was supportive of Civil Rights, and that Nixon wasn't exactly friendly towards liberals.......I'd have to go with Nixon, as the majority of those who voted for Wallace were hardcore conservatives who basically would've had no problem seeing this country thrown back to the Stone Age. No way they'd vote for a South Dakota liberal like Humphrey; in this scenario, frankly, the Great Switch would still happen pretty much as it did IOTL.

Nixon was actually known as a supporter of civil rights too, he just didn't approve of busing. He wasn't as fierce a conservative as he is often portrayed nowadays.

Wallace was still a staunch Democrat (he stayed a member of the party until his death) and might have pressured his voters in Congress to vote for Humphrey for two reasons: to preserve party unity and to extract concessions to the South on civil rights issues (maybe a few Dixiecrats in the Cabinet).

So I'd say he'd lean towards the Democrats but would offer his support to whichever party made the biggest overtures towards his base.
 
Last edited:
Nixon was actually known as a supporter of civil rights too, he just didn't approve of busing. He wasn't as fierce a conservative as he is often portrayed nowadays.

Wallace was still a staunch Democrat (he stayed a member of the party until his death) and might have pressured his voters in Congress to vote for Humphrey for two reasons: to preserve party unity and to extract concessions to the South on civil rights issues (maybe a few Dixiecrats in the Cabinet).

So I'd say he'd lean towards the Democrats but would offer his support to whichever party made the biggest overtures towards his base.

This. I'd say Nixon would be more likely to meet Wallace's demands- after all, Nixon did seduce Thurmond IOTL to keep the Southern bloc locked down in his camp and away from Reagan.
 
According to Drew: Wallace gives it to Humphrey because he thought Humphrey more malleable. Then he primaries Humphrey in '72.
 
According to Drew: Wallace gives it to Humphrey because he thought Humphrey more malleable. Then he primaries Humphrey in '72.

Quite possible. While HHH could never be denied renomination or anything close, Wallace would dent him badly. Combined with a likely Reagan nomination in '72 if Nixon loses '68, that year looks distinctly unpleasant for Democrats.
 
Quite possible. While HHH could never be denied renomination or anything close, Wallace would dent him badly. Combined with a likely Reagan nomination in '72 if Nixon loses '68, that year looks distinctly unpleasant for Democrats.

Regan of '72 isn't the Reagan of later on. I think Humphrey will lose, but because of Wallace, not Reagan. But one good Medicare gaffe could swing it Humphrey's way.
 
From what I understand Nixon and Humphrey camps had an informal agreement that if the election went to the House they would eventually elect the PV winner to avoid giving Wallace power.
 
Humphrey wins

Vice-President Humphrey cuts a deal with George Wallace behind the scenes and wins the Presidency in the U.S. House. George Wallace gets a federal appointment, in exchange for his pledge not to run in 1972. Republicans cry foul, but lack the votes to block Wallace.

CA Governor Ronald Reagan is the Republican nominee in 1972, defeating NY Governor Nelson Rockefeller and others in the primaries.
 
There was a roman-a-clef novel where the Wallace equivalent was a Senator. This turned out to be important because he could negotiate on the House floor during the voting.

It shows him making a deal with the Reagan equivalent to get the votes of the Western states.

Meanwhile, the incumbent president, disliking the Republican candidate and disdaining the Democratic one, works for some sort of resolution, in vain.

Finally, the new Congress votes and elects the Wallace equivalent. He is not only racist but personally abusive (there are scenes where he humiliates his mistress, for example). It is implied that all will not go well for the US in the days to come.

In the sixties, there were a fair number of political thrillers by one-off writers that imagined the Radical Right as far more powerful, cohesive, and appealing than it was.
 
Top