If Thatcher Won In 1976

I've seen a thread asking about Reagan winning in 1976, so let's try another neocon.

I realise there wasn't a general election in 1976, so I'll put in a bit of backstory for this situation. Following defeat in 1974, the Conservatives oust Edward Heath immediately, rather than allowing him to cling on. In his place, by a slim margin, Thatcher secures leadership of the party. Meanwhile amid turmoil in Harold Wilson's government, an election is called in 1976 in the hope of increasing their tiny majority. So, two questions.

1. Could the Conservatives have won under Thatcher, three years early?
2. If so, what would a Thatcherite late 70s Britain have looked like, and how would she have dealt with the problems that emerged in those years?
 
I can't honestly see the Conservatives choosing Thatcher in these circumstances. It would probably have been William Whitelaw as he wouldn't have been hampered by his loyalty to Heath.
 
I'm a Yank, so I'm not an expert.

But presumably the same thing that happened to President Carter in the late '70s. If Thatcher is elected in '76, she is not re-elected in '79 or '81 and the conservatives are out of power for about ten years.

unless you figure out a better way to have sustained economic growth.
 
This is really a tad ASB, Wilson/Callaghan would be mad to call an election in '76

However in March 1977 if there were no Lib-Lab pact, there would then be a general election in May 1977, which Thatcher would've won.
 
IMO the most likely POD is Callaghan calling an election in 1978 and bottling it.
And as far as 'Thatcher earlier in the 70s' TLs go, the basic jist is 'not well for the Tories': she can't hold on long enough for economic benefit or the Falklands (as they'll probably have a smaller majority) and might lose out badly to the Alliance once it forms (which would probably mean her resignation).
 
Suppose Labour had done slightly less well in the October 74 election. Callaghan or Wilson might have been FORCED into an election in 75 or 76
 
Suppose Labour had done slightly less well in the October 74 election. Callaghan or Wilson might have been FORCED into an election in 75 or 76

I suppose that is one possible scenario, looking back at the polls it was really only after the IMF crisis that Labour became very unpopular, so Callaghan might have called another election.

On the other hand though, if the Oct '74 election was another hung parliament than the tories probably wouldn't have dropped Heath, and Wilson would have been determined to stay in office long enough to outlast Heath. Wilson would still resign in '76 as he'd always planned, but he wouldn't risk another general election - at least really don't think he would.
If it were another hung parliament with labour the largest party then there would probably be an earlier Lib-Lab pact.
In such a situation it would be possible that Callaghan would take advantage of his honeymoon bounce and call a snap May '76 election, that's a possibility. Assuming he's facing Heath is still Tory leader then it could be a close race, if Thatcher (or worse, Keith Joseph) is leader then Callaghan could well win a majority.
 
And as far as 'Thatcher earlier in the 70s' TLs go, the basic jist is 'not well for the Tories': she can't hold on long enough for economic benefit or the Falklands . . .
So, was it 'squeezing inflation out of the system' or other harsh measures like bad medicine or a strenuous exercise program?

Or (at least on our side of the pond), was the military Keynesianism of Ronald Reagan in the early '80s?

I think the latter. And I think it could have also come from infrastructure improvements, from moves to cleaner, more modern energy, to space partnerships with the Soviets, or renewed competition, etc, etc.

* To me, the single most important economic number is GNP growth this year as compared to last year. And for an advanced modern economy, is growth in the neighborhood of 3% good healthy growth without being overheated? Please jump in and comment. This is something we as regular citizens should get good at.
 
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