If Spain Allowed Axis Use of Balearic Islands, Would Allies Declare War?

Anaxagoras

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Suppose that Germany and Italy asked Spain to allow them to use airfields in the Balearic Islands during the Second World War, similar to the manner in which Portugal allowed the Allies the use of the Azores, and the Spanish had agreed. Would this have been sufficient to trigger an Allied declaration of war?
 
Suppose that Germany and Italy asked Spain to allow them to use airfields in the Balearic Islands during the Second World War, similar to the manner in which Portugal allowed the Allies the use of the Azores, and the Spanish had agreed. Would this have been sufficient to trigger an Allied declaration of war?

Portugal only signed the 1st agreement with the UK in August 1943 and with the US in 1944. By then, Germany was in no shape to threaten us. Before that, we skated over a thin line, dodging both sides to remain neutral. So the real questions, because of the relative power of both sides, are: when and why would this happen? Franco was a fascist, but he wasn't dumb: even at the height of german power, he avoided an open aliance or any basing agreement with Hitler, by makiing ridiculous demands. Also, there was a spanish division of "volunteers" fighting in Russia (the Blue Division) but allies never declared war dispite this.
 
Let's say mid-1941.

At that time, "allies" pretty much meant the UK. France, for all practical purposes, was gone and the US was still neutral. Would the UK declare war? Maybe, but it's armed forces were in no condition to do much about the situation. Maybe a sub blockade of spanish harbours. Otoh, this would almost certainly mean Franco would allow german troops to cross the border and invade Gibraltar, and the german navy to base subs in the spanish atlantic coast. Which would mean closing the Med to the UK and cause severe problems to Atlantic convoys. And would almost certainly, sooner or latter, drag Portugal into the war. So the UK might not declare war... but that might be seen as a declaration of weakness...

Otoh Germany in mid-41 was fully ocupied with Barbarossa...
 
Suppose that Germany and Italy asked Spain to allow them to use airfields in the Balearic Islands during the Second World War, similar to the manner in which Portugal allowed the Allies the use of the Azores, and the Spanish had agreed. Would this have been sufficient to trigger an Allied declaration of war?

Why would the Germans ask? - they already have use of airbases on Sardinia and Sicily.
 
Why would the Germans ask? - they already have use of airbases on Sardinia and Sicily.

A good point, specially mid-1941. The Afrika Korps was rampaging, Malta was on the verge of colapse. In 1942, things were very diferent, and the Axis would need these to be able to go around Malta to reach North Africa and verse versa, but by then the war result was, at the very least, in balance, and the US had entered the war. I very much doubt Franco would acept any deal by then.
 
Much more useful to the Germans would be using the Canaries - both for long range maritime patrol and refueling/rearming submarines (and allowing a little R&R for crews). However the RN is capable of striking this base with naval gunfire, or even a carrier strike without actually declaring war on Spain - simply stating they were attacking German forces. Of course once the US joins the war, these bases become completely indefensible and at that point Spain risks the USA/UK taking them over "temporarily" to prevent use by Germany. As much as Franco did not want to get in to a fight with Britain, at least until they were down for the count if even then, he REALLY did not want to be at war with the USA. The US could easily cut off the flow of oil, food, etc from the western hemisphere to Spain which Spain desperately needed. Absent these goods from the western hemisphere Spain would collapse economically and face famine.
 
Hitler desperately wanted Spain to join the Axis after the failure of the BOB in 1940 as the German high command (particularly Raeder felt that if the British could be denied their bases in the Mediterranean then faced with the prospect of loosing the Empire the British would sue for peace. He proposed a joint attack by German and Spanish forces on Gibraltar and in return Franco wanted French Morocco, raw materials and crucially oil. This was to much for Hitler who said after the talk that he would rather have 3 or 4 teeth pulled then go through it again. Later as Barbarossa approached and the British were becoming more aggressive in north Africa and Greece Hitler granted Franco's demands. However Franco backed out. The truth was that the British (aided and abetted by the US) would allow Spain to import only enough oil to last it 2 months with 1 month in reserve. Thus unless a victory could be achieved in less than three months Franco risked the destruction of his entire economy. He certainly didn't believe that the Germans could supply anything like his requirements. A risk that kept Spain neutral in WW2.

(Most of this come from "The Struggle for Europe" by Chester Wilmot which I am re-reading at the moment but it has been repeated in several other sources)

If the Spanish do get into bed with Hitler especially in late 1940 then the Battle of the Atlantic just got even harder for the British. Further even if the Axis failed to capture Gibraltar the western Med is off limits and therefore Malta probably falls by default as I couldn't IMHO from the East. Is this enough for Britain with Churchill at the helm to call it a day? Probably not as there would be no British Greek adventure as with Spain in the mix as Wavall will be less inclined to go with an offensive operation and therefore no fall of Crete. This makes Rommel's job harder and logistics will always be his undoing. Barbarossa goes a little better without the Balkan distraction of OTL (but probably doesn't start much earlier due to the bead weather in Poland in May 1941).

The real looser is Spain. IOTL the Americans were desperate to get at the Germans in Europe in 1942 and were only talked out of it by the British pointing out that the forces available wouldn't be able to match the German forces already in France. However if Spain is in the Axis I would expect operation Torch to be aimed at Spain and not North Africa. This has the advantages of being in Europe (for the Americans) and being far enough away that relatively small forces (for the British) could force the Germans to commit additional forces from the eastern front (for the Russians) as there was always the possibility of a cross channel invasion.
 
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