If Sino-Japanese War is replaced in 1890s by a Spanish-Japanese War, how do great powers react?

[The Gunslinger]

I meant in terms of distance. Japan is a pretty homogenized Society and it trying in corporate the Philippines would cause a fair bit of problems logistically

I suspect they'd still try it, same as they did for Korea and Taiwan. It probably winds up in between in terms of success or failure.

 

[CountDVB]

I suspect they'd still try it, same as they did for Korea and Taiwan. It probably winds up in between in terms of success or failure.

Korea is a lot closer to Japan than the Philippines in this case though and I'm not sure on the Taiwan stuff. Granted, I'd have no idea what the Japanese would do besides trying to brute force it

 

[Timaeus]

Now that I think about it, the Philippines in the hands of Japan is a dagger pointed directly at the rest of Southeast Asia. That's probably something the colonial powers in the region will think about.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Now that I think about it, the Philippines in the hands of Japan is a dagger pointed directly at the rest of Southeast Asia. That's probably something the colonial powers in the region will think about.

Which ones? The Brits have pretty good relations with the Japanese and: assuming Japan has developed the naval power nessicery to defeat Spain in a war, probably developed it with substantial British assistance or at least tact approval (As a counter-weight to Russian influence in East Asia). The French have little reason to fear Japanese aggression either, with their interests in South-east Asia being marginal and already sorted out with Britain (Thus, under the diplomatic security of the Pax Britannica system of solving this sort of international crisis in European-dominated regions via conference and treaty). The only other relevant power in the area are the Dutch, who have the British presence acting as a buffer shell between their core territories in the East Indies and any Japanese aggression.

 

[raharris1973]

The Brits have pretty good relations with the Japanese and: assuming Japan has developed the naval power nessicery to defeat Spain in a war, probably developed it with substantial British assistance or at least tact approval (As a counter-weight to Russian influence in East Asia).

On the other hand, this Japanese move is probably a surprise to the British. They likely wanted Japan as a counterweight to Russia, and only Russia.

The French have little reason to fear Japanese aggression either, with their interests in South-east Asia being marginal and already sorted out with Britain (Thus, under the diplomatic security of the Pax Britannica system of solving this sort of international crisis in European-dominated regions via conference and treaty).

Maybe the Catholic wing of French imperialism will make an issue of it, but the secular wing of French imperialism, and the "Germany-firsters" won't care. Did any French cabinets in the 1890s depend on support of the Catholic parties?

 

[cmakk1012]

One thing to keep in mind is that in the long run more people will care as reports of atrocities come out of the Japanese Philippines (as they happened most everywhere the Japanese colonized IIRC). Would other colonizers really care? Not all that much, but they could make an excellent pretense for war for someone like France.

 

[Datu Buwan]

From hindsight a Japanese Philippines would the islands closer to the East Asian Cultural sphere since the Japanese would be controlling the country, bringing in colonists, exporting East Asian values and culture onto the people.

Which would bother European powers more?

A) Japan working to obviously puppetize or annex the Philippines, because it's greedy and limits their opportunity to do so, or

B) Japan supporting an allied Filipino state with some real independence, because it might give their colonial subjects the wrong idea

IMO I can't say either one as both options will scare the Europeans powers. The Philippines is a good launchpad for the Japanese in expanding South as what Timaeus pointed out. Nanshin-Ron would also be emphasized more. Whether or not they directly control the Philippines or if they propped up an allied Filipino state. Japan could acquire future possession of the Europeans and/or instead support peoples like the Indonesians or Vietnamese in overthrowing the French and Dutch from their lands and establishing protectorates over them.