If Sino-Japanese War is replaced in 1890s by a Spanish-Japanese War, how do great powers react?

[raharris1973]

Let's make the PoD that Korea has some good luck, avoids the Tonghak rebellion or anything like it for several years, and through 1894-19895-1896 the Korean status quo of a Sino-Japanese condominium remains stable.

Meanwhile the incident of the Japanese ship getting harassed or exploded in Manila in 1896 is not butterflied away, and Japan uses this as a pretext to go to war against the Spanish Empire in the Pacific.

What will Japan try to gain from the war?

An indemnity?

Micronesia and an independent, allied Philippines?

A puppet Philippines?

A colonized Philippines and Micronesia?

And how will the European powers react, if at all?

Which one has most skin in *this* game?

Who steps up to be leader of this TL''s version of the "Triple Intervention"?

Is white solidarity on behalf of Spain a potent cause, or a low priority?

 

[Onkel Willie]

Let's make the PoD that Korea has some good luck, avoids the Tonghak rebellion or anything like it for several years, and through 1894-19895-1896 the Korean status quo of a Sino-Japanese condominium remains stable.

Meanwhile the incident of the Japanese ship getting harassed or exploded in Manila in 1896 is not butterflied away, and Japan uses this as a pretext to go to war against the Spanish Empire in the Pacific.

What will Japan try to gain from the war?

An indemnity?

Micronesia and an independent, allied Philippines?

A puppet Philippines?

A colonized Philippines and Micronesia?

And how will the European powers react, if at all?

Which one has most skin in *this* game?

Who steps up to be leader of this TL''s version of the "Triple Intervention"?

Is white solidarity on behalf of Spain a potent cause, or a low priority?

Nobody really cares about Spain in the late nineteenth century and somebody taking the Philippines is no major concern to anyone at the time. Unlike with the United States, however, Japan is unable to resist European pressure at this time to let them have a piece of the pie. We could end up with the Philippines getting partitioned. Given how far away the Philippines are from the Home Islands and the Imperial Japanese Navy's size and power projecting abilities in the 1890s, it'll be hard for Japan to completely annex them if other imperial powers want some too.

 

[Ameck16]

No one cares about Spain. So the only ones that would would want stop the japan are maybe the Russians and Germans for 2 different reasons.

In otl Japan became a rival of Russia because it started to expand into mainland Asia and became a potential threat to stop Russia from linking the Siberian railroad to a warm water port. But with Japan expanding south this tension never occurs for now atleast.

Germany at this period of time wanted colonies and would likely try and get a piece of the Philippines, but would be alone in this, France ain't going to help it and Russia doesn't war, Austria doesn't care about the other side of the world when all its problems are right in front of them. And the British just plainly don't care. So Germany may make noise but it'll most likely lead to nothing and Japan gets the Spanish possessions while consenting to some terms like not persecuting Christians in their empire like otl.

 

[mlp]

Probably the United States, they're looking for bases/colonies in the Pacific

 

[PoorBoy]

If there were any intervenors, it would likely be China, Germany, the Dutch, or King Leopold of Belgium (but not the Belgians ).

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Probably the United States, they're looking for bases/colonies in the Pacific

The Spanish-American War was domestically controversial as-is, even with its primary focus being against Spainish atrocities in the Americas and long periods of yellow journalism pump-priming. An intervention based primarily on a war in the far-off Pacific would stink in the eyes of the voting public, and thus unlikely to get support (Especially if things go as they did IRL in Hawaii, providing a nice military port at Pearl and commercial links to the Far East). In such a scenario, I imagine the US would be far more likely to promote Filipino Independence with a guaranteed "Open Door" policy, possibly offering to host the peace talks/conference themselves.

Of course, the new government could then be negotiated with to lease a nice naval base location at a reasonable price. Especially if said negotiations were taking place with European warships lurking around the area threatening to get a military presence in the region the more... traditional way.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Given how far away the Philippines are from the Home Islands and the Imperial Japanese Navy's size and power projecting abilities in the 1890s, it'll be hard for Japan to completely annex them if other imperial powers want some too.

If Spain could hold them, then Japan definitely can annex them and hold on to them. Defending them is a different thing though, but I doubt anyone would want to take it from them at this point. Like said, noone cares about Spain. By the time Japan would go to war with a major Western naval power, they would be strong enough to defend the islands.

 

[Gloss]

The term white solidarity makes me chuckle, first time I heard that one.

 

[ArchimedesCircle]

I don't think anyone really cares enough about Spain to intervene at that point. Russia might, but we already know how Russia vs Japan goes. Germany would probably be more likely to join with Japan on this one, since they've got their own pacific colonies. I doubt France would want to get involved either. Did they have good relations with their western Bourbon monarchist neighbors? I would guess not but I don't really know. Britain probably sees a more powerful Japan as a better counterweight to Russia. America is still focused on the Caribbean at this point.

As for effects, I would expect that the Phillipines would be either annexed directly or set up as puppets for later annexation. The micronesian islands are small enough to probably go to Japan outright. The war would also send shockwaves through Europe. Even if Spain was a corpse empire at the time, it was a European corpse empire. Much like the Russo-Japanese war IOTL, this would prove to Europe that Japan was a nation to be reckoned with. Keeping the Sino-Japanese war from happening might also preserve the illusion that the Qing weren't the sick man of Asia, which could have big butterflies for China.

 

[PoorBoy]

The term white solidarity makes me chuckle, first time I heard that one.

LOL, white solidarity...

We can, however, have a deus vult situation where the Pope can urge Christians to fight against the heathen Japanese. It may not resonate with the various kings and republics, but it may spur individual Mexicans, Italians, Spaniards, Poles, etc. to take arms and fight Japan.

Would this be as much of a failure as the Crusades? Can't tell.

 

[Richard V]

Why is France ruled out?

 

[Monter]

Why is France ruled out?

The Third Republic going crusading? Not happening.

 

[Richard V]

The Third Republic going crusading? Not happening.

But didn’t they only recently fight a war with China for the control of Vietnam? Is adding another colony nearby totally out of character?

 

[raharris1973]

But didn’t they only recently fight a war with China for the control of Vietnam? Is adding another colony nearby totally out of character?

Actually, both French secularists and clericalists made colonialism a project and were able to help the 3rd Republic pull it off even though they had different sets of motives and priorities. There's a good book on that whose name escapes me.

 

[raharris1973]

So the only ones that would would want stop the japan are maybe the Russians and Germans for 2 different reasons.

Russia might, but we already know how Russia vs Japan goes.

Why would Russia care? Sure, there is some tension over Manchuria and Korea (although this *mostly* post-dates the OTL Sino-Japanese War), but this war sees Japan expanding in the *opposite* direction.

China, Germany, the Dutch, or King Leopold of Belgium

What would be the motive of the Chinese to help Spain?

Germany I could see. I wonder how a duel between these two second-rank naval powers would work at the time.

The Dutch or Leopold? Seriously?

I guess Leopold could offer to buy it, and since Spain won't be paying Japan an indemnity if there is war, Japan makes a deal? But no, really.

 

[raharris1973]

Which would bother European powers more?

A) Japan working to obviously puppetize or annex the Philippines, because it's greedy and limits their opportunity to do so, or

B) Japan supporting an allied Filipino state with some real independence, because it might give their colonial subjects the wrong idea

 

[The Gunslinger]

I wonder if they wouldn't put a protectorate in place with an annexation a decade or so down the road.

 

[CountDVB]

I wonder if they wouldn't put a protectorate in place with an annexation a decade or so down the road.

The Philippines may be too far for the Japanese to consider annexing them. They might have them as a protectorate or as some sort of vassal while promoting Japanese values tha end up getting mixed with the culture.

 

[The Gunslinger]

The Philippines may be too far for the Japanese to consider annexing them. They might have them as a protectorate or as some sort of vassal while promoting Japanese values tha end up getting mixed with the culture.

I think that's the case initially in the 1890s-1905 time frame. By around 1910 though they're probably strong enough to pull it off. How successful they'll be in the long term is debatable, but they should be able to pull it off by then.

I also think that if they're the de facto rulers for a decade Europe is less likely to throw a hissy fit about Japanese expansionism if it finally does happen.

 

[CountDVB]

I think that's the case initially in the 1890s-1905 time frame. By around 1910 though they're probably strong enough to pull it off. How successful they'll be in the long term is debatable, but they should be able to pull it off by then.

I also think that if they're the de facto rulers for a decade Europe is less likely to throw a hissy fit about Japanese expansionism if it finally does happen.

I meant in terms of distance. Japan is a pretty homogenized Society and it trying in corporate the Philippines would cause a fair bit of problems logistically