If Russia had kept Alaska: What would be logistics of a Romanov exile?

[jycee]

We frequently see scenarios in which Russia manages to hold on to Alaska until the 20th century. And when TLs that follow this scenario more often than have it turn into a White or Tsarist Russia in exile: a “Taiwan” for the Soviet Union for lack of a better comparison.

I’m interested in knowing what you guys think of this scenario (aside from the cool factor). And if it could even be logistically feasible to keep the Romanov’s as tsars in the case of a tsarist Alaska.

In OTL Nicholas II abdicated shortly after the February revolution, and Grand Duke Michael declined to accept the throne until a Constitutional Assembly held a vote. However, neither made it out of Russia alive.

But let’s say they do. Maybe Michael manages to escape earlier via Finland, while Nicholas and his family are rescued on time by the Czechoslovak Legion in Yekaterinburg and are safely transported out of Russia through Vladivostok.

Now you would need them, and enough exiled Russians, willingly settle in Alaska if they’re even welcome there. Could they keep Alaska from going communist as well? Would the Canadians and/or Americans just try to claim or occupy Alaska at this time? I’d imagine that at this point, even if Russia had kept it, most settlers would be American and Canadian prospectors and miners. And its populations would suddenly double with the arrival of many white emigres.

I'm posting this here, even if the POD is pre1900, I want to keep the discussion in post-1900 times on how a Russian Alaska would develop in the XX century.

Anyways I’m interested to see what do you guys think?

 

[Mitchell Hundred]

Far Eastern Russia might as well be in Alaska as far as its distance to Moscow is concerned. Would the Bering straight make a huge difference in terms of how untouchable the Romanov's would be?

 

[twistedirregular]

Grand Duke Nicholas or Cyril are more likely to become Tsar, considering I doubt Mikael will accept becoming Tsar nor will Nicholas II be wanted upon the throne anymore as everyone hated him by the time of the Russian Civil War. Tsarist Alaska will probably never become communist but there might be attempts by homegrown socialists at establishing an Alaskan SSR, although I don't see this being successful and the Whites are going to come into control of Alaska. I don't think that the British/Canadians would want to annex Alaska as it could act as a buffer state to Soviet expansionism from the Russian Far East, America won't annex Alaska but it could occupy parts of Alaska and/or institute a democracy.

 

[RightHoJeeves]

I think we first must establish what effect an Alaska that remains nominally Russian has on the discovery of gold in that territory. The Klondike Gold Rush resulted in a massive influx of Americans and other foreigners into Southeastern Alaska. This was then followed by the Nome Gold Rush and Fairbanks Gold Rush.

Given the backwards state of Russia at the time I can see a Republic of Alaska being declared by American miners with the goal of annexation as a US territory or state. It's not like Russian can do much to stop this. Perhaps the exiled czar can work out an agreement where he formally drops claims to Alaska in exchange for sanctuary in the US.

 

[The Gunslinger]

I think we first must establish what effect an Alaska that remains nominally Russian has on the discovery of gold in that territory. The Klondike Gold Rush resulted in a massive influx of Americans and other foreigners into Southeastern Alaska. This was then followed by the Nome Gold Rush and Fairbanks Gold Rush.

Given the backwards state of Russia at the time I can see a Republic of Alaska being declared by American miners with the goal of annexation as a US territory or state. It's not like Russian can do much to stop this. Perhaps the exiled czar can work out an agreement where he formally drops claims to Alaska in exchange for sanctuary in the US.

The Russians probably just tell the Americans to turn around. After the Klondike happens the Russians will probably have more resources in the area.

 

[RightHoJeeves]

The Russians probably just tell the Americans to turn around. After the Klondike happens the Russians will probably have more resources in the area.

At the time of the Alaska Purchase in 1867 there were about 2,500 subjects of Russian and mixed-race ancestry in the territory. Assuming nothing happens to make the territory more interesting to Russia between when they sold it OTL and the gold rushes how exactly are they going to keep the Americans and Canadians out?

If anything Russia would be welcoming to the foreigners since if they're going to get anything out of the territory they need people who want to live there and that's not something Russia ever had historically.

 

[vortiger]

i have been writing a TL which Alaska is not sold to america and the Russian revolution happens. i came to the conclusion that Britain siding with the whites, occupy Alaska and establish Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich as the head of the government in exile. pretty much like what happened with Taiwan.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I think we first must establish what effect an Alaska that remains nominally Russian has on the discovery of gold in that territory. The Klondike Gold Rush resulted in a massive influx of Americans and other foreigners into Southeastern Alaska. This was then followed by the Nome Gold Rush and Fairbanks Gold Rush.

Given the backwards state of Russia at the time I can see a Republic of Alaska being declared by American miners with the goal of annexation as a US territory or state. It's not like Russian can do much to stop this. Perhaps the exiled czar can work out an agreement where he formally drops claims to Alaska in exchange for sanctuary in the US.

This. Also neither the US or British are going to be comfortable with Bolsheviks in North America. The USN would be assisting the mix of White Russian exiles and English speaking gold rush immigrants in retaining independence.

Come the 21st Century Putin would be claiming Alaskeya as a irrevocable part of modern Russian, which gets really sticky if the US has meanwhile annexed it and turned it into a State.

 

[jycee]

Far Eastern Russia might as well be in Alaska as far as its distance to Moscow is concerned. Would the Bering straight make a huge difference in terms of how untouchable the Romanov's would be?

You need a navy to get to Alaska. As other’s mentioned the BRN and USN might be helping the Whites set up a buffer against communism, but the Romanov’s might still be in danger from an assassin or pro-Bolshevik agent. But that’s the same regardless of where they settle. The more interesting question is how much of Alaska does the White/Tsarist keep from the Bolsheviks? Who gets control of the Aleutian Islands?

I think we first must establish what effect an Alaska that remains nominally Russian has on the discovery of gold in that territory. The Klondike Gold Rush resulted in a massive influx of Americans and other foreigners into Southeastern Alaska. This was then followed by the Nome Gold Rush and Fairbanks Gold Rush.

Given the backwards state of Russia at the time I can see a Republic of Alaska being declared by American miners with the goal of annexation as a US territory or state. It's not like Russian can do much to stop this. Perhaps the exiled czar can work out an agreement where he formally drops claims to Alaska in exchange for sanctuary in the US.

At the time of the Alaska Purchase in 1867 there were about 2,500 subjects of Russian and mixed-race ancestry in the territory. Assuming nothing happens to make the territory more interesting to Russia between when they sold it OTL and the gold rushes how exactly are they going to keep the Americans and Canadians out?

If anything Russia would be welcoming to the foreigners since if they're going to get anything out of the territory they need people who want to live there and that's not something Russia ever had historically.

This. Also neither the US or British are going to be comfortable with Bolsheviks in North America. The USN would be assisting the mix of White Russian exiles and English speaking gold rush immigrants in retaining independence.

Come the 21st Century Putin would be claiming Alaskeya as an irrevocable part of modern Russian, which gets really sticky if the US has meanwhile annexed it and turned it into a State.

I agree with Carl SchwambergerBy the 1900s it would be much harder for the US to pull a Texas with its settlers once again, and especially against Russia; given the geopolitical implications. That is not to say that the settlers there won’t cause some trouble.

As you point out, I think it is likely the Russians would have welcomed the foreigners in order to exploit the territory properly. And Russia might have sent a couple of additional settler missions as Alaska’s importance grew. In 1910 Alaska had about 64,000 settlers in OTL.

Let’s say in TTL in addition to these 64,000 American/Canadian “new-commers” there are also about 12,000 Russians, including: administrators, missionaries, and successful settler outposts in New Archangel (Sitka), Pavlovskaya (Kodiak), and an additional one or two in the Kenai Peninsula & Cook Inlet. So roughly 1 in 6 “Alaskans” in TTL are Russian. However by 1920 things would be seriously flipped.

Alaska can’t hold all 900,000 – 2 million White Émigré’s. But even if only 5-10% of those settle in Alaska alongside the royal family, the territory will be doubling or tripling its population in a very short span. Could the territory even handle that?

While, I’m pretty sure the American/Canadian settlers will want a say in the matter before they are suddenly outnumbered. But they won’t be able to pull a Texas.

 

[twistedirregular]

You need a navy to get to Alaska. As other’s mentioned the BRN and USN might be helping the Whites set up a buffer against communism, but the Romanov’s might still be in danger from an assassin or pro-Bolshevik agent. But that’s the same regardless of where they settle. The more interesting question is how much of Alaska does the White/Tsarist keep from the Bolsheviks? Who gets control of the Aleutian Islands?

I don't think the Soviets would be able to seize control of the Aleutians when they're focusing on attempting to wipe out the White armies all the way in European Russia and by the time the White Russian armies collapse in the 20s, the White Russian Alaskans will have consolidated their hold by then.

 

[fscott]

I don't think the Soviets would be able to seize control of the Aleutians when they're focusing on attempting to wipe out the White armies all the way in European Russia and by the time the White Russian armies collapse in the 20s, the White Russian Alaskans will have consolidated their hold by then.

Would Japan have sees them in 1905?

 

[twistedirregular]

Would Japan have sees them in 1905?

I don’t think Japan had the logistical capabilities to seize Alaska.

 

[fscott]

I don’t think Japan had the logistical capabilities to seize Alaska.

I didn't think they did but I thought I'd ask people cuz I have no idea thank you

 

[David T]

Most likely, following the Bolsheviks' October coup an "Alaskan Republic" is formed which seeks annexation by either the British or the US (if the US wants it, the British will probably let the US have it--as things like the Alaska boundary dispute arbitration and the recognition of the Monroe Doctirine in the League Covenenat showed, the British were eager to get along with the US on North American matters).

 

[The Gunslinger]

At the time of the Alaska Purchase in 1867 there were about 2,500 subjects of Russian and mixed-race ancestry in the territory. Assuming nothing happens to make the territory more interesting to Russia between when they sold it OTL and the gold rushes how exactly are they going to keep the Americans and Canadians out?

If anything Russia would be welcoming to the foreigners since if they're going to get anything out of the territory they need people who want to live there and that's not something Russia ever had historically.

Most of the gold rushes won't happen until post-Klondike. Presumably not much of anything happens until that spurs interest in the area. By then Russia can afford to prevent Americans from overrunning the palce.

 

[Cryptic]

While, I’m pretty sure the American/Canadian settlers will want a say in the matter before they are suddenly outnumbered. But they won’t be able to pull a Texas.

My guess is that the anglophone settlers would "go Texas" very quickly when faced with any uptick in Russian immigration. The anglophones would would also have the support of some longer term Russian inhabitants who have little connection to Russia and are attracted to US style democracy (as a side note, a certain number of Hispanics in Texas had similar sentiments towards Mexico).

Maybe something like...

- Bedraggled and exhausted Czar lands in Alaska and is met by alot of local apathy amongst Alaskan Russians. Follow on escapees, though all right wing, are not unified in thought or in deed. They are also impoverished and exhausted.

- Sensing an impending wave of escapees and refusing to live under direct Russian governance, the already largely autonomous anglophones and sympathetic Russians declare an indepedent, democratic Republic. Settlement after settlement falls under the control of democratic militia units.

- Some arriving Russians drift towards support of the democratic Republic. Russians in support of the ancien regime object with exhausted voices, but are simply not in a position to do anything beside watch "Texas, the Sequel" unfold.

- USA recognizes new republic immediately. Naval blockade of eastern Siberia under the guise of preventing "red infiltration" reduces Russian immigration rate. Meanwhile anglophone immigration is directly facilitated.... .

 

[jycee]

i have been writing a TL which Alaska is not sold to america and the Russian revolution happens. i came to the conclusion that Britain siding with the whites, occupy Alaska and establish Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich as the head of the government in exile. pretty much like what happened with Taiwan.

This is where it get interesting, and part of what interested me in mentioning "logistics", and where it can get very "Game of Thrones".

Nicholas Nikolayevich is a good candidate to serve as head of government without being crowned tsar; he gets some legitimacy of keeping the old order in charge, but is not too close to “Nicholas the Bloody”. But if you have Nicholas II and Grand Duke Michael survive, there is a bit of an awkward situation, as Nicholas abdicated in favor of Michael (even though Michael refused the crown unless he was elected).

Additionally, you have Grand Duke Cyril, technically next-in-line to the throne after Michael and he did call himself “Emperor in Exile” / “Guardian of the Throne” in OTL. Nevertheless, the monarchists in OTL were split over this.

Alternatively, you could have a Zemsky Sobor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zemsky_Sobor), essentially a Kingsmoot called forth and let the emigres decide.

Most likely, following the Bolsheviks' October coup an "Alaskan Republic" is formed which seeks annexation by either the British or the US (if the US wants it, the British will probably let the US have it--as things like the Alaska boundary dispute arbitration and the recognition of the Monroe Doctirine in the League Covenenat showed, the British were eager to get along with the US on North American matters).

My guess is that the anglophone settlers would "go Texas" very quickly when faced with any uptick in Russian immigration. The anglophones would would also have the support of some longer term Russian inhabitants who have little connection to Russia and are attracted to US style democracy (as a side note, a certain number of Hispanics in Texas had similar sentiments towards Mexico).

Maybe something like...

[snip] .

Sounds reasonable for the most part.

Nevertheless, whether they go with a democratic republic or constitutional Monarchy (no way the fleeing Romanovs get to be autocratic here), Russian emigres will likely outnumber the “gold-diggers”; again even if only 5% of them settle in Alaska, your doubling the current population. Compare that vs Texas where Latinos/Hispanics still don’t make up the majority. The other difference is the logistics for militia takeovers since at this point, Alaska’s populations exist in semi-isolated pockets.

I think , there will also be international interests hoping to keep a White Russia government in exile afloat; the US annexing White Alaska is as good a recognizing the Soviet government. The UK, Canada, et al. might not be to keen on that.

 

[docfl]

Well there would be no Alaska class battlecruisers

 

[TimTurner]

imagine how cold relations between Romanov Alyaska and Soviet USSR would be.

 

[Histor32]

This. Also neither the US or British are going to be comfortable with Bolsheviks in North America. The USN would be assisting the mix of White Russian exiles and English speaking gold rush immigrants in retaining independence.

Come the 21st Century Putin would be claiming Alaskeya as a irrevocable part of modern Russian, which gets really sticky if the US has meanwhile annexed it and turned it into a State.

honestly it would be a mute point.

but I agree everyone would be converging on Alaska in 1916 or when ever it would happen in this time line.
Alaska is not the most hospitable places to be, that said people could be uhm.. yeah.. relocated, plus an influx of immigrants as long as they are willing to learn the language and adapt. ( tough sell since they are there to sell their claim back in Saginaw Michigan ( shameless music funny ) )

even today Alaska has under 700,000 people which is about what is in Vladivostok.

If, and this is a big if, the Russians find a reason to keep Alaska and they have a revolution, I just cant see the tsars saying lets move to Alaska!

not that this wouldn't be a bad thing, 1 thing would be OIL, afore mentioned gold, and other mineral wealth. Said state would be utterly dependent on Canada/USA for protection unless 10's of millions of Russians somehow find their way there.

by the time of the purchase no one knew what was there mineral wise. but what if in 1905 the Japanese take it as a spoil of war?