If Ronald Reagan had not gone on an Arms Spending Binge?.

Take the example of the East Germans, one of the best performing Soviet bloc economies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_German_Democratic_Republic#Microelectronics_industry

This is true.

They were the shining star of the East Bloc countries in terms of development.

In my personal observation of being in the old GDR/DDR more than once in the late 1980's...I'd have to say that this was a country that reached US levels in certain items of 1959.

They were great at making concrete and steel. Not so good at making many other things.

What I'm trying to say is that they got to US levels of technology roughly 1959 and could go only a little further in a few select areas beyond that.

In my opinion, the high point of East Germany was maybe somewhere 'round...1971. After that...down they slowly slid. My opinion.
 

Deleted member 1487

This is true.

They were the shining star of the East Bloc countries in terms of development.

In my personal observation of being in the old GDR/DDR more than once in the late 1980's...I'd have to say that this was a country that reached US levels in certain items of 1959.

They were great at making concrete and steel. Not so good at making many other things.

What I'm trying to say is that they got to US levels of technology roughly 1959 and could go only a little further in a few select areas beyond that.

In my opinion, the high point of East Germany was maybe somewhere 'round...1971. After that...down they slowly slid. My opinion.
Right, one of the very best Soviet bloc economies per capita couldn't produce a high tech manufactured product that was marketable outside the Soviet bloc. Really the only thing the Soviets made that was exportable besides raw materials was military equipment that was less expensive and advanced than Western equipment, but that 3rd and 2nd world countries could use (not that all of their stuff was crap, it just wasn't in most areas as good as western equipment). So even with the best investment strategy I don't see what the USSR could make in the civilian consumer economy that they could export abroad that would be competitive with western versions.

Even today, more than a generation after the fall of the USSR Russia still is just a petro-state with military equipment exports. Pretty much the same as they were in the Cold War, just now with a lot less people and resources, but more access to western technology and a somewhat less bad economic model.
 
Right, one of the very best Soviet bloc economies per capita couldn't produce a high tech manufactured product that was marketable outside the Soviet bloc. Really the only thing the Soviets made that was exportable besides raw materials was military equipment that was less expensive and advanced than Western equipment, but that 3rd and 2nd world countries could use (not that all of their stuff was crap, it just wasn't in most areas as good as western equipment). So even with the best investment strategy I don't see what the USSR could make in the civilian consumer economy that they could export abroad that would be competitive with western versions.

Even today, more than a generation after the fall of the USSR Russia still is just a petro-state with military equipment exports. Pretty much the same as they were in the Cold War, just now with a lot less people and resources, but more access to western technology and a somewhat less bad economic model.

In '87/88, they (East Germany) were still using reel-to-reel tapes for their computers.

I mentioned to someone on the website the large size of their computers as well, indicating that they may have been still using vacuum tubes in some of those machines. (I would have loved to open one of them up just to see what was inside of them. {To do that was way too dangerous, curiosity would have killed this cat and satisfaction wouldn't have brought me back! :eek: }They had to have had vacuum tubes inside to be that large.)

Also recall years ago hearing and or reading something that claimed that all the USSR was, was Mexico......with a space program and a large army (and an Army that spent several months a year in helping to harvest food! Never mind training, instead, they were out in the fields picking beets and potatoes!).

A country (USSR) that produced raw materials, basic things such as concrete and steel plus weaponry, and well, who the heck would have wanted to buy one of their cars anyway?

Cheers, Joho :)
 
He could only become president when he did otherwise he was too outside the beltway to be considered by the public or party.

Exactly why I said "somewhat".

In terms of how he treated labor, he was certainly good at standing up to the Ameri-Left.

Yeah, people forget that Carter was the guy who oversaw the start of many of the things people hated Reagan for. But isn't that the fate of all presidents - hated for things that weren't their fault and not hated for the things that came to fruition under their successors.

Even today, more than a generation after the fall of the USSR Russia still is just a petro-state with military equipment exports. Pretty much the same as they were in the Cold War, just now with a lot less people and resources, but more access to western technology and a somewhat less bad economic model.

I'm not sure the Soviet Union has stopped collapsing. The problems in Russia, Ukraine and Central Asia are breathtaking.

In any case, if the Soviets hadn't build up the oil and gas industry in Western Siberia, they wouldn't have the petro state crutch. It would have had to make real reforms to the heart of the economy, rather than letting the heart atrophy while allowing oil to support them.

What export industries could the USSR have successfully competed in that weren't weapons oriented?

Hm. I'd give them a good chance in industrial semi-products (things like steel and concrete), railway equipment, public transport, selling university educations and cheap knockoffs of Western goods (which the Soviets started doing - witness things like the Lada car - but gave up when they started investing heavily in the oil industry).

Keep in mind, there was a time (the 50s and 60s) when "made in Japan" was a badge of shame. Just because the Soviets can't produce goods equal to those of the West in the 70s doesn't mean they won't be putting out world-class products in the 90s - if they make the right investments.

Though I expect they'd not be efficient at "Japaning" I don't think one can entirely discount the possibility.

I mentioned to someone on the website the large size of their computers as well, indicating that they may have been still using vacuum tubes in some of those machines. (I would have loved to open one of them up just to see what was inside of them. {To do that was way too dangerous, curiosity would have killed this cat and satisfaction wouldn't have brought me back! :eek: }They had to have had vacuum tubes inside to be that large.)

Pretty sure those computers were based on primitive transistors.

fasquardon
 

Deleted member 1487

I'm not sure the Soviet Union has stopped collapsing. The problems in Russia, Ukraine and Central Asia are breathtaking.
Considering the USSR no longer exists as a political entity they stopped collapsing over a generation ago. That said the problems they caused to those areas linger and will continue to linger probably forever, just like the world wars and their impact on Europe, Asia, and the Middle East (not to mention the US which is where it is today because of all of this).

In any case, if the Soviets hadn't build up the oil and gas industry in Western Siberia, they wouldn't have the petro state crutch. It would have had to make real reforms to the heart of the economy, rather than letting the heart atrophy while allowing oil to support them.
If they didn't have the oil and gas industry there would be no Russia, just a failed state where the USSR used to be. The entire point is you cannot reform what is so badly broken as the East German exampled proved: they tried to reform their economy to become a high tech export based model like their Western cousins, but despite that they are a hollow shell of a region within Germany; I've studied in Berlin and it is still VERY clear where communism ruled. Traveling outside the city shows that other than a few specific areas there is a lot of blight. So I'm not sure what reforms you think they really could have made to actually have a functional competitive industrial heart, as effectively the only 'successful' post-Soviet economies have been states that a effectively European tiny Chinas that thrive on Western European outsourcing to take advantage of their cheap labor and relatively well educated population, while still exporting some raw materials (think Poland and coal and some metals like Copper).

Hm. I'd give them a good chance in industrial semi-products (things like steel and concrete), railway equipment, public transport, selling university educations and cheap knockoffs of Western goods (which the Soviets started doing - witness things like the Lada car - but gave up when they started investing heavily in the oil industry).

Keep in mind, there was a time (the 50s and 60s) when "made in Japan" was a badge of shame. Just because the Soviets can't produce goods equal to those of the West in the 70s doesn't mean they won't be putting out world-class products in the 90s - if they make the right investments.

Though I expect they'd not be efficient at "Japaning" I don't think one can entirely discount the possibility.
Steel was cornered by Japan and later China, which was a lot cheaper and willing to mechanize/use effective slave labor with low safety conditions to make their products. Same thing with concrete, they'd have to compete with a reforming China and just could not compete with their scales of economy and wages. As to their industrial equipment it was substandard and competing with much better US/German/British/French stuff. Same with cars, rail equipment, and so on. Selling university educations? Knock off western goods and outsourced western european cheap manufacturing might work, but they'd be competing with China and all the post-Soviet/late-Soviet era bloc countries that could be much easier leveraged by Western European countries.
And Lada? Not sure that had legs going forward when competing with Toyota and the Japanese economy cars. And yes I know about the history of Japanese industry and it's reputation for cheapness and poor quality (same with Germany way back when and China to a degree now, but that is changing). Perhaps the Soviets could have produced better cars and tractors and the like, we'll never know, but they'd probably have to invest heavily in their own agriculture as a base first to perfect the technology and get pricing where it needed to be, but there was the labor problems in general and overspending on the military that will still hurt the Soviets/Russians badly. You're right, it is possible, but they have a massive hill to climb given international competition which is tough for a national economy not based on that, but rather full employment at all costs and not meeting the needs of consumers.
 
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