If Reagan defeated Ford for the 1976 Republican nomination but then lost the general election to Carter, would Ford run in the 1980 Republican primaries?
If Reagan defeated Ford for the 1976 Republican nomination but then lost the general election to Carter, would Ford run in the 1980 Republican primaries?
I seriously doubt it. If Ford wouldn't run again after narrowly losing to Carter, he would definitely sit out the race after losing his own party's nomination as a sitting President.
The reason--or at least part of it--that Ford didn't run in 1980 was that he realized the GOP had moved to the right and that he would only assure Reagan's nomination by splitting the moderate vote. If Reagan had lost to Carter in 1976, Ford might think (even if mistakenly) that the hour for moderate Republicanism had come again in 1980...
Even then, he is more likely to endorse Bush than run himself.
I wrote a Timeline on this less than 6 months after I became a member of this site. I think it's very plausible that Ford does as he did consider it and I doubt the GOP would back Reagan again if he were to lose to Carter in 76, especially if the loss is decisive. Ford could say he left the Country better off than he found it, unlike Carter (though I don't blame Carter for this entirely), and he could make the argument (or at least try to) that Reagan lost because he was too Conservative.
Ford was also an unelected President that was thrust into the Presidency at a difficult time both economically and with regards to trust in Government and still managed to leave things better than he found them. I think IITL and probably even in OTL, the Ford Presidency would look damn good compared to Carter's by enough of the public and enough Republicans. I doubt Bush or Baker would run if Ford were to throw his hat in the ring so that clears the field and if Bob Dole does (I think Dole could try to challenge Ford from the right as he wouldn't be running mate ITTL and I doubt Reagan runs again) Ford would easily beat him.Maybe. Then again Republican leaders could blame Ford for Reagan's nomination and therefore Carter's victory. And remember that had Ford lost the nomination in 1976, he'd have been the first President to be rejected by his party since Arthur in 1884. That's a pretty bad record, on top of the worst economy at that point since the Great Depression, the Nixon pardon, "Drop Dead" New York, the fall of Saigon, etc. All of which both Republicans and Democrats can attack will vigor. If Ford tries again in 1980 he would most likely lose the nomination. But given how strong a race he ran against Carter in 1976, and how widely unpopular Carter was four years later, he could beat Carter in 1980.