alternatehistory.com

If Reagan had died that day, there is the question of who President Bush Sr chooses as his VP. Bob Dole seems the logical choice, and a Bush/Dole ticket breezes to a victory in 1984 over Mondale/Ferrero. After seven and half years as Vice President, the stage is set for a Republican nomination for Bob Dole in 1988. Dole and running mate Jack Kemp beat Dukakis in 1988, but loses to Clinton in 1992. Kemp gets the Republican nomination in 1996, but loses to Clinton in the general election. Bush Jr gets the nomination in 2000.

The most interesting question is how the Bush Senior Administration's policies would differ from what Reagan did in OTL.

A Bush/Dole administration would have smaller tax cuts, a smaller military buildup, no visionary SDI, no vision of the "evil empire" (USSR) gone from the earth; and most importantly, Bush would insist on cutting social programs in order to balance the budget despite those tax cuts. That would give the Dems exactly the weapon that Reagan denied them in OTL: the ability to paint the Republican in the White House as cruel and heartless and dismissive of the underprivileged. Bush's blueblood background (contrasted with Reagan's financially modest childhood) would be icing on the cake for their political attack ads. Bush would still win in 1984, but it would be a much closer race than Reagan in OTL.

I assume that Dole would handle Iraq the same as Bush Sr in OTL. That is, if there's still going to be an Gulf War.

What next? Someone handle it from here.
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