If Reagan died in 1981

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Economic problems, especially the grossly inflated military spending caused deep discontent.

Gorbachev decided that he was not prepared to do lots of shooting to keep Eastern Europe.

If there had been no Gorby the USSR could have survived partly by being more ruthless internally and partly because they have stuff, especially oil, that Capitalists were ready willing and able to pay good money or goods for.

Those Soviet problems would still exist without Gorbachev. The capitalist west still had the Sheikhs from whom they could meet their energy needs.
 
Those Soviet problems would still exist without Gorbachev. The capitalist west still had the Sheikhs from whom they could meet their energy needs.

Hmmmm, the US maybe by Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for gas & to a lesser degree oil, and it not like fossil fuels are the only valuable resources the USSR had.

Plus China & India's voracious and growing appetite for oil would remain

I Don’t know about the other former-Soviet republics, but Russia certainly wouldn’t be in such a bad way if the USSR had survived, it demographic situation wouldn’t be anywhere near so bad post-Soviet Russia’s population is taking a nose-dive
 
Those Soviet problems would still exist without Gorbachev. The capitalist west still had the Sheikhs from whom they could meet their energy needs.

Yes but Gorby decided that repression was not an acceptable option. The trouble was that in 1989, and to some extent since, the ultra Greed is Good version of Capitalism came to dominate. That is why the aftermath of the Soviet Union was such a catastrophe.
 
Yes but Gorby decided that repression was not an acceptable option. The trouble was that in 1989, and to some extent since, the ultra Greed is Good version of Capitalism came to dominate. That is why the aftermath of the Soviet Union was such a catastrophe.

With or without Gorbachev, Reagan's foreign policy contributed substantially to the demise of the Soviet Union.
 
Please explain how the SU would have collapsed if it had not decided to stop using repression in Eastern Europe.

The USSR was broke, and could not choose to keep repression levels up while trying to match the U.S. in the arms race. However, on top of that, once Reagan had gone to Berlin, he showed the suffering masses of Eastern Europe that the United States, perhaps for the first time ever, stood behind them in their efforts to repulse Commuist oppression.
 

MrHola

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Question: What would Bush do against the '81 PATCO strike? Would he seek a compromise or would fire them, like Reagan did in OTL?
 
The USSR was broke, and could not choose to keep repression levels up while trying to match the U.S. in the arms race. However, on top of that, once Reagan had gone to Berlin, he showed the suffering masses of Eastern Europe that the United States, perhaps for the first time ever, stood behind them in their efforts to repulse Commuist oppression.
Gorbachev himself Always Held that it was The Election of Pope John Paul II, that Sounded The Soviet Union's Death Knell ...

Regardless of What Happens to Reagan ...

Karol Wajtyla's Elevation Made The Poles Restive All on its Own, Any Additional Repression will ONLY Serve to Make Things Worse!

:eek:
 
Gorbachev himself Always Held that it was The Election of Pope John Paul II, that Sounded The Soviet Union's Death Knell ...

Regardless of What Happens to Reagan ...

Karol Wajtyla's Elevation Made The Poles Restive All on its Own, Any Additional Repression will ONLY Serve to Make Things Worse!

:eek:

And it would be in the interest of Gorbachev to assert such, whether or not his version of events was accurate. Even with the possibility of problems in Poland, history up until the inauguration of Reagan entailed a U.S. policy of essentially not caring one way or another what happened in Eastern Europe. Reagan changed this when he signaled U.S. support for change in Eastern Europe by both his military build-up and expansion pland as well as his statement telling Mr. Gorbachev to tear down that wall.
 

MrHola

Banned
Rough draft of the Timeline

1981

On March 30, Ronald Reagan has been President for thirty days. On that day, Reagan left the Hilton Hotel after an appearance there. A young man, John Hinckley Jr, fired six shots from a revolver at the President. Press Secretary James Brady was critically wounded, a Secret Service agent was killed, and Reagan was rushed to hospital unconcious. He was pronounced Dead on Arrival, assassinated by a disturbed young man.

Vice President George Bush was notified on what happened and almost immediatley took the Oath of Office. He launched an investigation into the Reagan asssassination. Nothing was revealed and Bush was criticised for taking advantage of Reagan’s death.

His next step was to choose a Vice President. Bush chose Paul Laxalt, a close friend of the late Ronald Reagan.

On August 3, the Bush Administration faced it’s first challenge; the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization declared a strike, seeking better working conditions, better pay and a 32-hour workweek. Bush was facing a dilemma, the PATCO supported the Republican Party in 1980 so he couldn’t just fire them. He decided to seek a compromise.

On October 1, the talks between PATCO and the Bush Administration were finished. Most of PATCO’s demands were met, this caused the Conservative Republicans to accuse Bush on being “soft” on violations of federal law.

***

Comments, advice, criticisms?
 

MrHola

Banned
I would really appreciate some comments, I would like to take this timeline to 2009. I already fleshed out 1981 a bit, is it accurate enough?

And here are some questions:

- What would Bush do against the Falklands War, would he intervene?

- Would Bush still support the Contra's in Nicaragua?

- What about the Beirut terrorist attack in 1983?

- Grenada?

Advice, criticisms and comments would be appreciated.
 
- What would Bush do against the Falklands War, would he intervene?

- Would Bush still support the Contra's in Nicaragua?

- What about the Beirut terrorist attack in 1983?

- Grenada?

Nah, unless the British lose a carrier or something in which case perhaps they lend something.

Don't know enough, I'm afraid.

Bush could easily stay in. Frankly pulling out was one of Reagan's worst moves, and staying in would result in some pretty good knock-on effects, especially as regards certain terrorists and their view of the United States.

Assuming it still goes into the planning stages I imagine it goes ahead.
 

MrHola

Banned
Could you please give examples of those positive effects if Bush decides to stay in Libanon?

And what do you think of 1981?
 
Could you please give examples of those positive effects if Bush decides to stay in Libanon?

And what do you think of 1981?

The Arab world viewed the pull-out as American weakness, and terrorists basically believed that all they had to do to get rid of Americans was blow stuff up (which is what they believed anyway, but this gave them proof). That said there are plenty of ways to get out without having that, as staying in Lebanon is a risky proposition. You could have a safer/slower withdrawal because Bush probably won't follow the Reagan escalation and so drawing down troops will not be seen as a direct response to a single bombing (i.e. "the Americans have no will to fight" which helped lead to the Iraq War in '91, along with Bush's failure to give the correct diplomatic signals to Iraq).

Laxalt's reasonable, and settling with PATCO is also reasonable—but conservative Republicans are not going to be happy with Bush so I think he is going to have an increasingly tougher time with Congress.
 
one intrigueing thing about this timeline is the lack of military buildup in west germany. its been said that the red army may have pulled it off prior to 82', because that's when the effects of the increased expenditures happened making a march across the rhine less feasible. All's thats needed is a change in leadership in the soviet union or a possible crisis to spur the soviets. also, with no "evil empire" mentality, does the U.S. even support the Afghan rebels? how does the middle east political situation change if the "lesser satan" is still strong?
 
40.Reagan/Bush (1981)
41.Bush/Laxalt (1981-1989)
42. Dole/Kemp (1989-1993)
43. Clinton/Gore (1993-2001)
44. McCain/Bush (2001- 2005) assassinated in georgia with georgian president mikheil saakashveli may 2005
45. Bush Jr./Pawlenty (2005-2009)
46. H. Clinton/Obama (2009-2017)
47. J. Bush/Christie (2017-present)
 
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